TableChase Clubs

Delaware FC New Castle Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Delaware Football Club (all teams)

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5th
3-2-1 record · 6 played
1.83 points per game
+18 goal diff · 31–13
WDDWLlast 5
66% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.7
-0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 1.83 PPG
vs
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0.00 PPG

Smith Estates, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–0 (expected goals 6.9 for, 1.0 against · 2.95 expected points)

Season so farDelaware FC New Castle PreSJEB FC Pre Red
Position5th11th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-10-0-6
Points per game1.830.00
Goals for / game5.20.2
Goals against / game2.25.5
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless05
Form (recent first)L W D D WL L L L L
Biggest win15–0 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- I—
Worst loss2–4 at PUNSC Pre0–9 at STA Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.87-3.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.46+1.36

Common opponents: World Class FC Pre — we 5–2; they 0–4. Maryland United FC Pre — we 1–1; they 0–6. Pipeline SC Pre — we 3–3; they 0–4. PUNSC Pre — we 2–4; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    SJEB FC Pre Red average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 5 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    SJEB FC Pre Red concede 5.5/game; worst result 0–9 at STA Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 6–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    SJEB FC Pre Red have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SJEB FC Pre Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Delaware FC New Castle Pre – SJEB FC Pre Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.71 PPG
5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3
Loss
1.57 PPG
5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 6–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

15% finish 1st
66% top 4
34% below the top 4
3.7 average finish
  1. 1st 15%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 PUNSC Pre 2.50 (+0.67) 6th (1.77) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
2 Pipeline SC Pre 2.43 (+0.60) 2nd (2.01) 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 2.29 (+0.46) 4th (1.98) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 Maryland United FC Pre 2.17 (+0.34) 1st (2.06) 37 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection

How the results connect

16 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Delaware FC New Castle Pre to SJEB FC Pre Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
0 favour them
+7.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–4 4–1 3–3 4–0 1–1 6–0 5–2 4–0 0–3 6–0 3–3 5–3 3–4 3–5 4–3 2–4 15–0 0–16 9–0 2–1 Delaware FC New Cas… 5th PUNSC Pre 1st Pipeline SC Pre 2nd Maryland United FC … 4th World Class FC Pre 8th Penn Fusion Soccer … 10th Match Fit Surf Pre-… 12th Potomac Soccer Asso… 3rd STA Pre 6th SJEB FC Pre Red 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.00 · 11th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Home
Smith Estates
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 1.99 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
10:15 AM
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Away far trip
Central Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
3–4 1.06 1.88 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:30 PM
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Home
Hudson Fields · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–3 1.61 1.85 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
10:15 AM
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Smith Estates
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.50 1.91 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Home
Smith Estates
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
4–2 2.06 1.93 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
3–3 1.46 1.89 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
4–3 1.90 1.89 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
9–1 2.99 1.97 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
01:30 PM
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
Hudson Fields · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.44 1.93 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
09:30 AM
Pipeline SC Pre
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11
Home
Smith Estates
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.76 1.92 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Home
Smith Estates
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.94 1.92 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
4–2 2.23 1.94 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%
3–3 1.24 1.90 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–3 1.69 1.89 Swing game
Sat May 22
12:00 PM
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Home
Smith Estates
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
4–2 2.30 1.91 Bank it
Sun May 23
11:30 AM
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.90 1.96 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre 4310 137+6 102.50 WWDW +0.06 +0.01 32% 5.2
2 Pipeline SC Pre 7520 2312+11 172.43 WDWDW +0.58 -0.27 74% 3.3
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 7511 3212+20 162.29 DWWWW -0.82 +0.24 67% 3.6
4 Maryland United FC Pre 6411 236+17 132.17 WWDWW -0.53 +0.07 80% 3.0
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 6321 3113+18 111.83 WDDWL -0.46 -0.00 66% 3.7
6 STA Pre 4202 277+20 61.50 WLLW -1.72 +0.20 73% 3.3
7 Baltimore Celtic Pre 3111 147+7 41.33 WLD -1.08 +0.18 8% 6.9
8 World Class FC Pre 5203 1814+4 61.20 LWLLW -1.41 +0.46 0% 8.8
9 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.68 +0.02 0% 9.3
10 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 4103 1815+3 30.75 LWLL -0.37 +0.13 1% 8.1
11 SJEB FC Pre Red 6006 133-32 00.00 LLLLL +1.36 +0.02 0% 11.1
12 Match Fit Surf Pre- I 7007 272-70 00.00 LLLLL +1.26 +0.35 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.