Delaware FC New Castle Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Delaware Football Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 6–0 (expected goals 6.9 for, 1.0 against · 2.95 expected points)
| Season so far | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | SJEB FC Pre Red |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-1 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 1.83 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 5.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D D W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 15–0 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- I | — |
| Worst loss | 2–4 at PUNSC Pre | 0–9 at STA Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.87 | -3.32 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.46 | +1.36 |
Common opponents: World Class FC Pre — we 5–2; they 0–4. Maryland United FC Pre — we 1–1; they 0–6. Pipeline SC Pre — we 3–3; they 0–4. PUNSC Pre — we 2–4; they 1–4.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
SJEB FC Pre Red average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 5 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
SJEB FC Pre Red concede 5.5/game; worst result 0–9 at STA Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 6–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
SJEB FC Pre Red have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SJEB FC Pre Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Delaware FC New Castle Pre – SJEB FC Pre Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.71 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.57 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 6–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 15%
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 18%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 2.50 (+0.67) | 6th (1.77) | 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 2.43 (+0.60) | 2nd (2.01) | 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 2.29 (+0.46) | 4th (1.98) | 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 2.17 (+0.34) | 1st (2.06) | 37 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
How the results connect
16 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Delaware FC New Castle Pre to SJEB FC Pre Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.00 · 11th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
SJEB FC Pre Red 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Home Smith Estates |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 1.99 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 10:15 AM |
STA Pre 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Central Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
3–4 | 1.06 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:30 PM |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Home Hudson Fields · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
3–3 | 1.61 | 1.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 10:15 AM |
PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home Smith Estates |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
4–1 | 2.50 | 1.91 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Smith Estates |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
4–2 | 2.06 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
STA Pre 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
3–3 | 1.46 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
4–3 | 1.90 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Pre- I 12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
9–1 | 2.99 | 1.97 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 01:30 PM |
Maryland United FC Pre 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17 |
Home Hudson Fields · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–2 | 1.44 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 09:30 AM |
Pipeline SC Pre 2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11 |
Home Smith Estates |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.76 | 1.92 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
PUNSC Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home Smith Estates |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–2 | 1.94 | 1.92 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
4–2 | 2.23 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
3–3 | 1.24 | 1.90 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–3 | 1.69 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 12:00 PM |
World Class FC Pre 8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home Smith Estates |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
4–2 | 2.30 | 1.91 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 11:30 AM |
SJEB FC Pre Red 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
6–1 | 2.90 | 1.96 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | +0.06 | +0.01 | 32% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at STA Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWDW | +0.58 | -0.27 | 74% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 16 | 2.29 | DWWWW | -0.82 | +0.24 | 67% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 8 at STA Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | -0.53 | +0.07 | 80% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 11 | 1.83 | WDDWL | -0.46 | -0.00 | 66% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sun Oct 25 at STA Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | STA Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -1.72 | +0.20 | 73% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PUNSC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Baltimore Celtic Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -1.08 | +0.18 | 8% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | World Class FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | -1.41 | +0.46 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PUNSC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | PSA Monmouth Pre- l | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.68 | +0.02 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.37 | +0.13 | 1% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PUNSC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs SJEB FC Pre Red See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SJEB FC Pre Red | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.36 | +0.02 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Match Fit Surf Pre- I | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 72 | -70 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.26 | +0.35 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sat Nov 14 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.