Match Fit Surf Pre- I
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Sycamore Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–7 (expected goals 0.9 for, 7.4 against · 0.02 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf Pre- I | Pipeline SC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-7 | 5-2-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.43 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 10.3 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W D W D W |
| Biggest win | — | 4–0 at SJEB FC Pre Red |
| Worst loss | 0–16 vs STA Pre | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -6.33 | +1.15 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.26 | +0.58 |
Common opponents: Baltimore Celtic Pre — we 0–11; they 2–2. STA Pre — we 0–16; they 2–1. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre — we 1–9; they 4–3. Potomac Soccer Association Pre — we 0–8; they 4–3. Delaware FC New Castle Pre — we 0–15; they 3–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–11 at Baltimore Celtic Pre, 0–6 at Maryland United FC Pre, 0–16 vs STA Pre, 0–8 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre, 0–15 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 0%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
SJEB FC Pre Red sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above SJEB FC Pre Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pipeline SC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf Pre- I – Pipeline SC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
| Win 0.38 PPG |
11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 | 12th— holds |
| Draw 0.13 PPG |
11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 | 12th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–7 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th 11%
- 12th 89%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.05 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 2.50 (+2.50) | 6th (1.77) | 55 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 2.43 (+2.43) | 2nd (2.01) | 54 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 2.29 (+2.29) | 4th (1.98) | 51 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 2.17 (+2.17) | 1st (2.06) | 48 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | 1.83 (+1.83) | 5th (1.96) | 41 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 6 | STA Pre | 1.50 (+1.50) | 3rd (1.99) | 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 7 | Baltimore Celtic Pre | 1.33 (+1.33) | 7th (1.53) | 30 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 8 | World Class FC Pre | 1.20 (+1.20) | 9th (1.21) | 27 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 9 | PSA Monmouth Pre- l | 1.00 (+1.00) | 10th (1.09) | 22 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 10 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre | 0.75 (+0.75) | 8th (1.32) | 17 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 11 | SJEB FC Pre Red | 0.00 (+0.00) | 11th (0.27) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
20 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Match Fit Surf Pre- I to Pipeline SC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.35 · 2nd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Pipeline SC Pre 2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11 |
Home Sycamore Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.02 | 0.00 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
SJEB FC Pre Red 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Home Sycamore Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 0.10 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away The Ranney School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–6 | 0.06 | 0.10 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 10:00 AM |
PUNSC Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–8 | 0.01 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
World Class FC Pre 8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.05 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–8 | 0.02 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
STA Pre 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Delaware FC New Castle Pre 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–9 | 0.01 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Maryland United FC Pre 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Pipeline SC Pre 2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–8 | 0.01 | 0.06 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
PUNSC Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.03 | 0.06 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:30 AM |
SJEB FC Pre Red 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.65 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.11 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–9 | 0.01 | 0.09 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | +0.06 | +0.01 | 32% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at STA Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWDW | +0.58 | -0.27 | 74% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 16 | 2.29 | DWWWW | -0.82 | +0.24 | 67% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 8 at STA Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | -0.53 | +0.07 | 80% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 11 | 1.83 | WDDWL | -0.46 | -0.00 | 66% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sun Oct 25 at STA Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | STA Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -1.72 | +0.20 | 73% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PUNSC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Baltimore Celtic Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -1.08 | +0.18 | 8% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | World Class FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | -1.41 | +0.46 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PUNSC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | PSA Monmouth Pre- l | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.68 | +0.02 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.37 | +0.13 | 1% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PUNSC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs SJEB FC Pre Red See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SJEB FC Pre Red | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.36 | +0.02 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Match Fit Surf Pre- I | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 72 | -70 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.26 | +0.35 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sat Nov 14 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.