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Pipeline SC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Pipeline SC (all teams)

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2nd
5-2-0 record · 7 played
2.43 points per game
+11 goal diff · 23–12
WDWDWlast 5
73% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
+0.58 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Pipeline SC Pre
2nd · 2.43 PPG
at
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0.00 PPG

Sycamore Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 7–0 (expected goals 7.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.97 expected points)

Season so farPipeline SC PreMatch Fit Surf Pre- I
Position2nd12th
Record (W-D-L)5-2-00-0-7
Points per game2.430.00
Goals for / game3.30.3
Goals against / game1.710.3
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless05
Form (recent first)W D W D WL L L L L
Biggest win4–0 at SJEB FC Pre Red—
Worst loss—0–16 vs STA Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.15-6.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.58+1.26

Common opponents: Potomac Soccer Association Pre — we 4–3; they 0–8. Baltimore Celtic Pre — we 2–2; they 0–11. STA Pre — we 2–1; they 0–16. Delaware FC New Castle Pre — we 3–3; they 0–15. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre — we 4–3; they 1–9.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Match Fit Surf Pre- I average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 5 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Match Fit Surf Pre- I concede 10.3/game; worst result 0–16 vs STA Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 7–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Match Fit Surf Pre- I have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Sycamore Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    PUNSC Pre sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.43.

    A win moves us above PUNSC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pipeline SC Pre – Match Fit Surf Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.25 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.13 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 7–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

17% finish 1st
73% top 4
27% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 17%
  2. 2nd 20%
  3. 3rd 19%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 PUNSC Pre 2.50 (+0.07) 6th (1.77) Win next game

How the results connect

20 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Pipeline SC Pre to Match Fit Surf Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us
0 favour them
+9.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–3 9–1 4–3 8–0 2–2 11–0 3–3 15–0 2–1 16–0 1–5 6–0 1–5 4–0 0–6 1–1 0–4 7–1 0–6 3–5 Pipeline SC Pre 2nd Penn Fusion Soccer … 10th Potomac Soccer Asso… 3rd Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th Delaware FC New Cas… 5th STA Pre 6th SJEB FC Pre Red 11th Maryland United FC … 4th World Class FC Pre 8th Match Fit Surf Pre-… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.27 · 12th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Away far trip
Sycamore Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.97 2.50 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.28 2.36 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Away far trip
Orangetown Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–2 1.75 2.30 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Home
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–2 1.73 2.25 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.88 2.30 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.28 2.30 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 2.24 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
3–2 1.83 2.21 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.93 2.13 Upside
Sun Apr 11
09:30 AM
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–3 1.08 2.07 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.68 2.05 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
8–0 2.99 2.10 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 2.04 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–2 2.07 2.04 Swing game
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Away far trip
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 2.01 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre 4310 137+6 102.50 WWDW +0.06 +0.01 32% 5.2
2 Pipeline SC Pre 7520 2312+11 172.43 WDWDW +0.58 -0.27 73% 3.3
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 7511 3212+20 162.29 DWWWW -0.82 +0.24 67% 3.6
4 Maryland United FC Pre 6411 236+17 132.17 WWDWW -0.53 +0.07 78% 3.0
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 6321 3113+18 111.83 WDDWL -0.46 -0.00 66% 3.7
6 STA Pre 4202 277+20 61.50 WLLW -1.72 +0.20 74% 3.2
7 Baltimore Celtic Pre 3111 147+7 41.33 WLD -1.08 +0.18 9% 6.9
8 World Class FC Pre 5203 1814+4 61.20 LWLLW -1.41 +0.46 0% 8.7
9 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.68 +0.02 0% 9.3
10 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 4103 1815+3 30.75 LWLL -0.37 +0.13 2% 8.1
11 SJEB FC Pre Red 6006 133-32 00.00 LLLLL +1.36 +0.02 0% 11.1
12 Match Fit Surf Pre- I 7007 272-70 00.00 LLLLL +1.26 +0.35 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.