TableChase Clubs

STA Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · STA (all teams)

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6th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+20 goal diff · 27–7
WLLWlast 4
74% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2
-1.72 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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STA Pre
6th · 1.50 PPG
at
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1.00 PPG

The Ranney School , Field 1 - Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.5 for, 2.2 against · 2.37 expected points)

Season so farSTA PrePSA Monmouth Pre- l
Position6th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-21-0-2
Points per game1.501.00
Goals for / game6.81.7
Goals against / game1.83.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L L WW L L
Biggest win16–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I4–3 vs World Class FC Pre
Worst loss1–5 at Maryland United FC Pre0–4 vs Pipeline SC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.37-0.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.72+0.68

Common opponents: Pipeline SC Pre — we 1–2; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 4–2.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at The Ranney School .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PSA Monmouth Pre- l game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (STA Pre – PSA Monmouth Pre- l) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.80 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Win
1.80 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Draw
1.40 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 9th▼ down 3
Loss
1.20 PPG
8th▼ down 2 6th— holds 10th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

22% finish 1st
74% top 4
26% below the top 4
3.2 average finish
  1. 1st 22%
  2. 2nd 19%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 PUNSC Pre 2.50 (+1.00) 6th (1.77) 49 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 Pipeline SC Pre 2.43 (+0.93) 2nd (2.01) 48 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 2.29 (+0.79) 4th (1.98) 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 Maryland United FC Pre 2.17 (+0.67) 1st (2.06) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 1.83 (+0.33) 5th (1.96) 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link STA Pre to PSA Monmouth Pre- l through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
0 favour them
+6.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 4–0 9–0 0–4 3–4 1–4 2–1 0–4 16–0 1–7 STA Pre 6th Pipeline SC Pre 2nd SJEB FC Pre Red 11th Match Fit Surf Pre-… 12th World Class FC Pre 8th PUNSC Pre 1st PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.20 · 4th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
The Ranney School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
4–2 2.37 1.67 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
10:15 AM
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18
Home
Central Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
4–3 1.79 1.69 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:30 AM
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Home
Central Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.10 1.75 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:45 AM
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Home
Central Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
4–2 2.22 1.81 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
10:30 AM
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Home
Central Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
3–3 1.78 1.81 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
TBD
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
5–2 2.43 1.87 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Away far trip
Scott Auto Field
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
5–3 2.07 1.89 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
3–3 1.39 1.85 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
5–2 2.40 1.89 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 3.00 1.97 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.59 1.94 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pipeline SC Pre
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.91 1.94 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.75 1.93 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:30 AM
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–1 2.93 1.99 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
5–1 2.61 2.02 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
3–3 1.39 1.99 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
4–3 1.86 1.98 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
4–2 2.13 1.99 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre 4310 137+6 102.50 WWDW +0.06 +0.01 30% 5.3
2 Pipeline SC Pre 7520 2312+11 172.43 WDWDW +0.58 -0.27 74% 3.3
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 7511 3212+20 162.29 DWWWW -0.82 +0.24 68% 3.6
4 Maryland United FC Pre 6411 236+17 132.17 WWDWW -0.53 +0.07 79% 3.0
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 6321 3113+18 111.83 WDDWL -0.46 -0.00 66% 3.6
6 STA Pre 4202 277+20 61.50 WLLW -1.72 +0.20 74% 3.2
7 Baltimore Celtic Pre 3111 147+7 41.33 WLD -1.08 +0.18 8% 6.9
8 World Class FC Pre 5203 1814+4 61.20 LWLLW -1.41 +0.46 0% 8.7
9 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.68 +0.02 0% 9.3
10 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 4103 1815+3 30.75 LWLL -0.37 +0.13 1% 8.1
11 SJEB FC Pre Red 6006 133-32 00.00 LLLLL +1.36 +0.02 0% 11.1
12 Match Fit Surf Pre- I 7007 272-70 00.00 LLLLL +1.26 +0.35 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.