STA Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · STA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
The Ranney School , Field 1 - Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.5 for, 2.2 against · 2.37 expected points)
| Season so far | STA Pre | PSA Monmouth Pre- l |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-2 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 6.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L W | W L L |
| Biggest win | 16–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I | 4–3 vs World Class FC Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at Maryland United FC Pre | 0–4 vs Pipeline SC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.37 | -0.52 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.72 | +0.68 |
Common opponents: Pipeline SC Pre — we 1–2; they 0–4.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 4–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at The Ranney School .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PSA Monmouth Pre- l game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (STA Pre – PSA Monmouth Pre- l) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.80 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.80 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.40 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 9th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.20 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 6th— holds | 10th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 22%
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 18%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 2.50 (+1.00) | 6th (1.77) | 49 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 2.43 (+0.93) | 2nd (2.01) | 48 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 2.29 (+0.79) | 4th (1.98) | 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 2.17 (+0.67) | 1st (2.06) | 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection |
| 5 | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | 1.83 (+0.33) | 5th (1.96) | 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
How the results connect
5 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link STA Pre to PSA Monmouth Pre- l through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.20 · 4th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
The Ranney School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
4–2 | 2.37 | 1.67 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 10:15 AM |
Delaware FC New Castle Pre 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18 |
Home Central Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
4–3 | 1.79 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
PUNSC Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home Central Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–2 | 2.10 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:45 AM |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Central Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
4–2 | 2.22 | 1.81 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 10:30 AM |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Home Central Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–3 | 1.78 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
World Class FC Pre 8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
5–2 | 2.43 | 1.87 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Scott Auto Field |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
5–3 | 2.07 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
Delaware FC New Castle Pre 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
3–3 | 1.39 | 1.85 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
5–2 | 2.40 | 1.89 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Pre- I 12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 3.00 | 1.97 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Maryland United FC Pre 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.59 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Pipeline SC Pre 2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
3–2 | 1.91 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
PUNSC Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 11:30 AM |
SJEB FC Pre Red 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–1 | 2.93 | 1.99 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
5–1 | 2.61 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
3–3 | 1.39 | 1.99 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
4–3 | 1.86 | 1.98 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
World Class FC Pre 8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
4–2 | 2.13 | 1.99 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | +0.06 | +0.01 | 30% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at STA Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWDW | +0.58 | -0.27 | 74% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 16 | 2.29 | DWWWW | -0.82 | +0.24 | 68% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 8 at STA Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | -0.53 | +0.07 | 79% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 11 | 1.83 | WDDWL | -0.46 | -0.00 | 66% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sun Oct 25 at STA Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | STA Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -1.72 | +0.20 | 74% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PUNSC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Baltimore Celtic Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -1.08 | +0.18 | 8% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | World Class FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | -1.41 | +0.46 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PUNSC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | PSA Monmouth Pre- l | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.68 | +0.02 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.37 | +0.13 | 1% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PUNSC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs SJEB FC Pre Red See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SJEB FC Pre Red | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.36 | +0.02 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Match Fit Surf Pre- I | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 72 | -70 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.26 | +0.35 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sat Nov 14 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.