PSA Monmouth Pre- l
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Princeton SA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
The Ranney School , Field 1 - Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.2 for, 4.5 against · 0.52 expected points)
| Season so far | PSA Monmouth Pre- l | STA Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 6.8 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L | W L L W |
| Biggest win | 4–3 vs World Class FC Pre | 16–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Pipeline SC Pre | 1–5 at Maryland United FC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.52 | +2.37 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.68 | -1.72 |
Common opponents: Pipeline SC Pre — we 0–4; they 1–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
STA Pre score 6.8/game — well above the league's 3.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Pipeline SC Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
World Class FC Pre sit 8th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above World Class FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the STA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSA Monmouth Pre- l – STA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.75 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
6th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 2 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 8th▲ up 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 13%
- 9th 28%
- 10th 54%
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 2.50 (+1.50) | 6th (1.77) | 52 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 2.43 (+1.43) | 2nd (2.01) | 51 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection |
| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 2.29 (+1.29) | 4th (1.98) | 48 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 2.17 (+1.17) | 1st (2.06) | 45 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 5 | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | 1.83 (+0.83) | 5th (1.96) | 38 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 6 | STA Pre | 1.50 (+0.50) | 3rd (1.99) | Win next game |
| 7 | Baltimore Celtic Pre | 1.33 (+0.33) | 7th (1.53) | A point next game |
| 8 | World Class FC Pre | 1.20 (+0.20) | 9th (1.21) | A point next game |
How the results connect
5 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link PSA Monmouth Pre- l to STA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.02 · 8th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
STA Pre 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
2–4 | 0.52 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Maryland United FC Pre 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.63 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Scott Auto Field |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–4 | 0.82 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:15 AM |
Delaware FC New Castle Pre 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Smith Estates |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–4 | 0.41 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Match Fit Surf Pre- I 12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–1 | 2.92 | 1.04 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 10:00 AM |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Maryland Soccerplex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–4 | 0.44 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 10:00 AM |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–3 | 0.70 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 20 10:00 AM |
Maryland United FC Pre 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Indian Creek |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.42 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Pipeline SC Pre 2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.58 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
PUNSC Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
2–2 | 0.97 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 11:30 AM |
SJEB FC Pre Red 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 0.99 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
World Class FC Pre 8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–3 | 0.94 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 1.00 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association Pre 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
2–3 | 0.67 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
STA Pre 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–5 | 0.31 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Delaware FC New Castle Pre 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
2–4 | 0.64 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 09:00 AM |
SJEB FC Pre Red 11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Home The Ranney School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.64 | 1.00 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
3–3 | 1.17 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Pre- I 12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.85 | 1.09 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | PUNSC Pre | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | +0.06 | +0.01 | 32% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs World Class FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at STA Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pipeline SC Pre | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWDW | +0.58 | -0.27 | 73% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Potomac Soccer Association Pre | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 16 | 2.29 | DWWWW | -0.82 | +0.24 | 67% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 8 at STA Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Maryland United FC Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | -0.53 | +0.07 | 78% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at World Class FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sat Oct 31 at Pipeline SC Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Delaware FC New Castle Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 11 | 1.83 | WDDWL | -0.46 | -0.00 | 66% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sun Oct 25 at STA Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | STA Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -1.72 | +0.20 | 74% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PUNSC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Baltimore Celtic Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | -1.08 | +0.18 | 9% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Potomac Soccer Association Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs World Class FC Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | World Class FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | -1.41 | +0.46 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at PUNSC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Baltimore Celtic Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | PSA Monmouth Pre- l | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.68 | +0.02 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs STA Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Maryland United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.37 | +0.13 | 2% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PUNSC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Baltimore Celtic Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs SJEB FC Pre Red See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SJEB FC Pre Red | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.36 | +0.02 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Delaware FC New Castle Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Match Fit Surf Pre- I | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 72 | -70 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.26 | +0.35 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pipeline SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs SJEB FC Pre Red · Sat Nov 14 at PSA Monmouth Pre- l See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.