TableChase Clubs

PSA Monmouth Pre- l

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Princeton SA (all teams)

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9th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-4 goal diff · 5–9
LLWlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.3
+0.68 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1.00 PPG
vs
STA Pre
6th · 1.50 PPG

The Ranney School , Field 1 - Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.2 for, 4.5 against · 0.52 expected points)

Season so farPSA Monmouth Pre- lSTA Pre
Position9th6th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-22-0-2
Points per game1.001.50
Goals for / game1.76.8
Goals against / game3.01.8
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L LW L L W
Biggest win4–3 vs World Class FC Pre16–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I
Worst loss0–4 vs Pipeline SC Pre1–5 at Maryland United FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.52+2.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.68-1.72

Common opponents: Pipeline SC Pre — we 0–4; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    STA Pre score 6.8/game — well above the league's 3.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Pipeline SC Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    World Class FC Pre sit 8th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above World Class FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the STA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSA Monmouth Pre- l – STA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1
Win
1.50 PPG
6th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 2 10th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 1
Loss
0.75 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 28%
  10. 10th 54%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 PUNSC Pre 2.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.77) 52 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 Pipeline SC Pre 2.43 (+1.43) 2nd (2.01) 51 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 2.29 (+1.29) 4th (1.98) 48 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4 Maryland United FC Pre 2.17 (+1.17) 1st (2.06) 45 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 1.83 (+0.83) 5th (1.96) 38 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
6 STA Pre 1.50 (+0.50) 3rd (1.99) Win next game
7 Baltimore Celtic Pre 1.33 (+0.33) 7th (1.53) A point next game
8 World Class FC Pre 1.20 (+0.20) 9th (1.21) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link PSA Monmouth Pre- l to STA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
5 favour them
-6.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 2–1 4–3 4–0 0–9 1–2 4–1 7–1 0–16 4–0 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 9th Pipeline SC Pre 2nd World Class FC Pre 8th PUNSC Pre 1st SJEB FC Pre Red 11th Match Fit Surf Pre-… 12th STA Pre 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
14%
2–4 0.52 0.88 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.63 0.83 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Away far trip
Scott Auto Field
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–4 0.82 0.83 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:15 AM
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–4 0.41 0.77 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–1 2.92 1.04 Bank it
Sun Dec 13
10:00 AM
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Away far trip
Maryland Soccerplex
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–4 0.44 0.97 Upside
Sat Dec 19
10:00 AM
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–3 0.70 0.94 Upside
Sun Dec 20
10:00 AM
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Away far trip
Indian Creek
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 0.90 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD
Pipeline SC Pre
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11
Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.58 0.87 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–2 0.97 0.88 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:30 AM
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 0.99 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.94 0.99 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1-1-1 · GD +7
Home
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 1.00 0.99 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–3 0.67 0.97 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–5 0.31 0.93 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18
Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%
2–4 0.64 0.92 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Home
The Ranney School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.64 1.00 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%
3–3 1.17 1.01 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 1.09 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre 4310 137+6 102.50 WWDW +0.06 +0.01 32% 5.2
2 Pipeline SC Pre 7520 2312+11 172.43 WDWDW +0.58 -0.27 73% 3.3
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 7511 3212+20 162.29 DWWWW -0.82 +0.24 67% 3.6
4 Maryland United FC Pre 6411 236+17 132.17 WWDWW -0.53 +0.07 78% 3.0
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 6321 3113+18 111.83 WDDWL -0.46 -0.00 66% 3.7
6 STA Pre 4202 277+20 61.50 WLLW -1.72 +0.20 74% 3.2
7 Baltimore Celtic Pre 3111 147+7 41.33 WLD -1.08 +0.18 9% 6.9
8 World Class FC Pre 5203 1814+4 61.20 LWLLW -1.41 +0.46 0% 8.7
9 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.68 +0.02 0% 9.3
10 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 4103 1815+3 30.75 LWLL -0.37 +0.13 2% 8.1
11 SJEB FC Pre Red 6006 133-32 00.00 LLLLL +1.36 +0.02 0% 11.1
12 Match Fit Surf Pre- I 7007 272-70 00.00 LLLLL +1.26 +0.35 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.