TableChase Clubs

Baltimore Celtic Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Atlantic BU12 · 12 teams · Baltimore Celtic Soccer Club (all teams)

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7th
1-1-1 record · 3 played
1.33 points per game
+7 goal diff · 14–7
WLDlast 3
9% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.8
-1.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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Baltimore Celtic Pre
7th · 1.33 PPG
vs

Jemicy School, Field 2 (9v9) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.9 for, 3.4 against · 1.17 expected points)

Season so farBaltimore Celtic PrePotomac Soccer Association Pre
Position7th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-1-15-1-1
Points per game1.332.29
Goals for / game4.74.6
Goals against / game2.31.7
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D L WW W W W D
Biggest win11–0 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- I8–0 at Match Fit Surf Pre- I
Worst loss1–5 at Maryland United FC Pre3–4 vs Pipeline SC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.81+1.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.08-0.82

Common opponents: Match Fit Surf Pre- I — we 11–0; they 8–0. Maryland United FC Pre — we 1–5; they 3–0. Pipeline SC Pre — we 2–2; they 3–4.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Potomac Soccer Association Pre score 4.6/game — well above the league's 3.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Potomac Soccer Association Pre have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    STA Pre sit 6th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above STA Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Potomac Soccer Association Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Baltimore Celtic Pre – Potomac Soccer Association Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3
Win
1.75 PPG
6th▲ up 1 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Draw
1.25 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG
8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
9% top 4
91% below the top 4
6.8 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 18%
  7. 7th 33%
  8. 8th 20%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 PUNSC Pre 2.50 (+1.17) 6th (1.77) 51 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 Pipeline SC Pre 2.43 (+1.10) 2nd (2.01) 50 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 2.29 (+0.96) 4th (1.98) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
4 Maryland United FC Pre 2.17 (+0.84) 1st (2.06) 44 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 1.83 (+0.50) 5th (1.96) 37 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
6 STA Pre 1.50 (+0.17) 3rd (1.99) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Baltimore Celtic Pre to Potomac Soccer Association Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
5 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 4–3 11–0 0–8 1–5 0–3 4–3 3–5 1–9 4–0 0–6 0–6 1–7 2–4 6–0 Baltimore Celtic Pre 7th Pipeline SC Pre 2nd Match Fit Surf Pre-… 12th Maryland United FC … 4th Penn Fusion Soccer … 10th SJEB FC Pre Red 11th World Class FC Pre 8th Potomac Soccer Asso… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 5th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Home
Jemicy School
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–3 1.17 1.29 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Away far trip
USTC
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
3–3 1.42 1.32 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Home
Glenelg Country School · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
3–2 1.90 1.42 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:45 AM
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Away far trip
Central Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–4 0.66 1.31 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:30 AM
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Away far trip
Tuckahoe Farm
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.79 1.49 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18
Away far trip
Smith Estates
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–4 0.81 1.42 Upside
Sun Dec 6
TBD
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–3 1.17 1.39 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +3
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
4–3 1.82 1.43 Swing game
Sat Dec 19
10:00 AM
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–2 2.17 1.49 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
TBD
PUNSC Pre
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
3–2 1.52 1.49 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre- I
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -70
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
8–1 2.97 1.60 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +17
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–2 1.05 1.56 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Pipeline SC Pre
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +11
Away
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–3 1.00 1.53 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
SJEB FC Pre Red
11th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–1 2.88 1.61 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
PSA Monmouth Pre- l
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
3–2 1.84 1.62 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Potomac Soccer Association Pre
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.83 1.58 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
World Class FC Pre
8th · 2-0-3 · GD +4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
3–3 1.53 1.58 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
STA Pre
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +20
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
3–4 1.00 1.55 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Delaware FC New Castle Pre
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +18
Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%
3–3 1.16 1.53 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre 4310 137+6 102.50 WWDW +0.06 +0.01 29% 5.4
2 Pipeline SC Pre 7520 2312+11 172.43 WDWDW +0.58 -0.27 72% 3.4
3 Potomac Soccer Association Pre 7511 3212+20 162.29 DWWWW -0.82 +0.24 69% 3.5
4 Maryland United FC Pre 6411 236+17 132.17 WWDWW -0.53 +0.07 80% 3.0
5 Delaware FC New Castle Pre 6321 3113+18 111.83 WDDWL -0.46 -0.00 68% 3.6
6 STA Pre 4202 277+20 61.50 WLLW -1.72 +0.20 72% 3.3
7 Baltimore Celtic Pre 3111 147+7 41.33 WLD -1.08 +0.18 9% 6.8
8 World Class FC Pre 5203 1814+4 61.20 LWLLW -1.41 +0.46 0% 8.7
9 PSA Monmouth Pre- l 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.68 +0.02 0% 9.3
10 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 4103 1815+3 30.75 LWLL -0.37 +0.13 2% 8.1
11 SJEB FC Pre Red 6006 133-32 00.00 LLLLL +1.36 +0.02 0% 11.1
12 Match Fit Surf Pre- I 7007 272-70 00.00 LLLLL +1.26 +0.35 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.