San Diego Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:30 PM
El Cajon Valley High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.0 against · 1.69 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf | Rebels SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-1 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W L D | L L W L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Sporting California USA | 1–0 vs LAFC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Legends FC - Del Mar | 0–2 at Legends FC - Del Mar |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.09 | -0.51 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.16 | +0.39 |
Common opponents: Slammers FC HB Koge — we 1–1; they 0–2. Legends FC - Del Mar — we 1–2; they 0–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Rebels SC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 26% / loss 26%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at El Cajon Valley High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
SLAMMERS FC sit 6th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.60.A point moves us above SLAMMERS FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Rebels SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.50 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.83 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 21%
- 7th 25%
- 8th 19%
- 9th 11%
- 10th 8%
- 11th 4%
- 12th 2%
- 13th 1%
- 14th 1%
- 15th <1%
- 16th <1%
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 3.00 (+1.40) | 2nd (2.34) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | Utah Royals FC-AZ RL | 2.60 (+1.00) | 3rd (2.33) | 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | Legends FC | 2.50 (+0.90) | 1st (2.37) | 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 4 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 2.33 (+0.73) | 4th (2.15) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 2.00 (+0.40) | 5th (1.92) | 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | SLAMMERS FC | 1.80 (+0.20) | 6th (1.64) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Rebels SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 5th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 17 03:00 PM no score posted |
Eagles SC 12th · 0-3-1 · GD -1 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 03:30 PM |
Rebels SC 13th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Away El Cajon Valley High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.69 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
LV Heat Surf 17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.33 | 1.70 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club Gold 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.59 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Arizona Arsenal 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.47 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Legends FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
SLAMMERS FC 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.21 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
LAFC 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.19 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 01:00 PM |
LA Breakers 16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 1.45 | Bank it |
| Sun May 23 09:00 AM |
Pateadores Soccer Club 10th · 1-1-3 · GD -5 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 1.49 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.09 | -0.11 | 91% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Nov 8 vs Blues · Sun Nov 22 at Rebels SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Royals FC-AZ RL | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.49 | +0.05 | 92% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 vs Slammers FC HB Koge · Sun Mar 21 vs Sporting California USA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Legends FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.35 | -0.03 | 96% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 vs LAFC · Sun Nov 22 at LA Breakers See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 14 | 2.33 | DDWWW | -0.42 | +0.09 | 78% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SLAMMERS FC · Sat Oct 31 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 vs Phoenix Rising FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.24 | -0.04 | 34% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Blues · Sun Oct 25 at Rebels SC · Sat Nov 21 vs LV Heat Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SLAMMERS FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWWL | +0.07 | -0.09 | 6% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Slammers FC HB Koge · Sun Nov 1 vs LA Breakers · Sun Nov 22 at Eagles SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | San Diego Surf | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | DLWWD | -0.16 | +0.01 | 1% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Rebels SC · Sun Nov 15 at LV Heat Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWDLD | +0.13 | -0.11 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sat Mar 20 vs LA Breakers See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Phoenix Rising FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | DDLWL | +0.48 | -0.31 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sun Nov 15 vs Rebels SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | LDWLL | -0.30 | +0.14 | 0% | 13.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Rebels SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Nov 1 at Blues See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | LAFC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDLW | -0.10 | +0.07 | 0% | 13.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LA Breakers · Sat Oct 31 vs Slammers FC HB Koge · Sun Nov 8 at Legends FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Eagles SC | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 0.75 | LDDD | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Phoenix Rising FC · Sat Nov 7 at Sporting California USA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Rebels SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.39 | -0.11 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Arizona Arsenal See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Blues | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 | 0.67 | DLD | +0.42 | -0.08 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 | 0.50 | DDLL | +0.62 | -0.18 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagles SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Pateadores Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | LA Breakers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.66 | -0.13 | 0% | 16.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at SLAMMERS FC · Sun Nov 22 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | LV Heat Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.13 | -0.17 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 15 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Nov 21 at Arizona Arsenal See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.