TableChase Clubs

Utah Royals FC-AZ RL

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · Utah Royals FC - AZ (all teams)

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2nd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+12 goal diff · 13–1
WWDWWlast 5
92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5
-0.49 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 22, 09:00 AM

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Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
2nd · 2.60 PPG
vs
Arizona Arsenal
5th · 2.00 PPG

Bell Road Sports Complex, Field 16 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.1 against · 2.09 expected points)

Season so farUtah Royals FC-AZ RLArizona Arsenal
Position2nd5th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-02-0-1
Points per game2.602.00
Goals for / game2.63.0
Goals against / game0.21.3
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W D W WL W W
Biggest win6–0 at LV Heat Surf4–0 at LA Breakers
Worst loss—0–2 at Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.40+0.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.49-0.24

Common opponents: Phoenix Rising FC — we 0–0; they 5–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Arizona Arsenal score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Phoenix Rising FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 63% / draw 20% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arizona Arsenal game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Royals FC-AZ RL – Arizona Arsenal) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.17 PPG
5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

27% finish 1st
92% top 4
8% below the top 4
2.5 average finish
  1. 1st 27%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 24%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 3.00 (+0.40) 2nd (2.34) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Royals FC-AZ RL to Arizona Arsenal through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 2–5 3–0 1–1 1–0 0–2 2–0 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2nd Phoenix Rising FC 9th Legends FC - Del Mar 8th Rebels SC 13th Slammers FC HB Koge 4th Arizona Arsenal 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Arizona Arsenal
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.09 2.51 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +11
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–0 1.50 2.37 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Sporting California USA
15th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.54 2.39 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LAFC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.72 2.43 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
San Diego Surf
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.36 2.42 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
Eagles SC
12th · 0-3-1 · GD -1
Home
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
1–0 2.32 2.41 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM
Blues
14th · 0-2-1 · GD -5
Home
Bell Road Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
2–0 2.64 2.43 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Gold
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.65 2.37 Swing game
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
LA Breakers
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.72 2.40 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Legends FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 2.32 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
2–0 2.50 2.33 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 176+11 123.00 WWWW -0.09 -0.11 92% 2.5
2 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 131+12 132.60 WWDWW -0.49 +0.05 92% 2.5
3 Legends FC 6501 214+17 152.50 WLWWW -0.35 -0.03 96% 2.2
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 6420 121+11 142.33 DDWWW -0.42 +0.09 77% 3.6
5 Arizona Arsenal 3201 94+5 62.00 WWL -0.24 -0.04 34% 4.9
6 SLAMMERS FC 5302 1211+1 91.80 LWWWL +0.07 -0.09 6% 6.6
7 San Diego Surf 5221 98+1 81.60 DLWWD -0.16 +0.01 2% 7.6
8 Legends FC - Del Mar 6222 78-1 81.33 LWDLD +0.13 -0.11 0% 8.8
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6123 813-5 50.83 DDLWL +0.48 -0.31 0% 10.0
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 611-5 40.80 LDWLL -0.30 +0.14 0% 13.1
11 LAFC 5113 513-8 40.80 LLDLW -0.10 +0.07 0% 13.6
12 Eagles SC 4031 45-1 30.75 LDDD -0.05 -0.03 0% 9.7
13 Rebels SC 4103 15-4 30.75 LWLL +0.39 -0.11 0% 11.8
14 Blues 3021 38-5 20.67 DLD +0.42 -0.08 0% 12.1
15 Sporting California USA 4022 27-5 20.50 DDLL +0.62 -0.18 0% 12.2
16 LA Breakers 4004 113-12 00.00 LLLL +0.66 -0.13 0% 15.9
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 012-12 00.00 LLL +1.13 -0.17 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.