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Blues

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · So Cal Blues (all teams)

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14th
0-2-1 record · 3 played
0.67 points per game
-5 goal diff · 3–8
DLDlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.2
+0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Blues
14th · 0.67 PPG
vs
Arizona Arsenal
5th · 2.00 PPG

OC Great Park, Field 22 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.8 against · 0.65 expected points)

Season so farBluesArizona Arsenal
Position14th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-12-0-1
Points per game0.672.00
Goals for / game1.03.0
Goals against / game2.71.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)D L DL W W
Biggest win—4–0 at LA Breakers
Worst loss0–5 vs Legends FC0–2 at Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.71+0.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.42-0.24

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Arizona Arsenal score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 16%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Rebels SC sit 13th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above Rebels SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arizona Arsenal game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Blues – Arizona Arsenal) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.50 PPG
15th▼ down 1 14th— holds 17th▼ down 3
Win
1.25 PPG
9th▲ up 5 9th▲ up 5 10th▲ up 4
Draw
0.75 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.50 PPG
15th▼ down 1 14th— holds 17th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 13th if every rival drops points, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 15%
  14. 14th 13%
  15. 15th 11%
  16. 16th 6%
  17. 17th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 3.00 (+2.33) 2nd (2.34) 46 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+1.93) 3rd (2.33) 40 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+1.83) 1st (2.37) 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.33 (+1.66) 4th (2.15) 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 Arizona Arsenal 2.00 (+1.33) 5th (1.92) 30 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 SLAMMERS FC 1.80 (+1.13) 6th (1.64) 27 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 San Diego Surf 1.60 (+0.93) 7th (1.49) 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.33 (+0.66) 8th (1.34) 20 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
9 Phoenix Rising FC 0.83 (+0.16) 10th (1.21) A point next game
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 0.80 (+0.13) 14th (0.88) A point next game
11 LAFC 0.80 (+0.13) 15th (0.85) A point next game
12 Eagles SC 0.75 (+0.08) 9th (1.22) A point next game
13 Rebels SC 0.75 (+0.08) 11th (1.01) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Blues to Arizona Arsenal through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 favour them
-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–1 2–0 3–2 2–5 1–1 0–0 0–5 4–0 Blues 14th San Diego Surf 7th Sporting California… 15th Legends FC 3rd Slammers FC HB Koge 4th Phoenix Rising FC 9th Arizona Arsenal 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 9th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Arizona Arsenal
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Home
OC Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.65 0.66 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
Tesoro High School - Stadium · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.55 0.84 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club Gold
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.27 0.74 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
LAFC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Home
OC Great Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.70 0.88 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.04 0.90 Upside
Sun Mar 21
01:00 PM
LA Breakers
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away far trip
Silverlakes
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.82 1.00 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM
Legends FC - Del Mar
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -1
Home
Tesoro High School - Stadium · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.18 1.02 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Rebels SC
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.49 1.06 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LV Heat Surf
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.89 1.13 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM
Utah Royals FC-AZ RL
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–2 0.25 1.06 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.71 1.04 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +11
Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–2 0.33 0.99 Upside
Sun May 23
TBD
Eagles SC
12th · 0-3-1 · GD -1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.95 0.99 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 176+11 123.00 WWWW -0.09 -0.11 93% 2.5
2 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 131+12 132.60 WWDWW -0.49 +0.05 93% 2.5
3 Legends FC 6501 214+17 152.50 WLWWW -0.35 -0.03 96% 2.2
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 6420 121+11 142.33 DDWWW -0.42 +0.09 78% 3.5
5 Arizona Arsenal 3201 94+5 62.00 WWL -0.24 -0.04 33% 4.9
6 SLAMMERS FC 5302 1211+1 91.80 LWWWL +0.07 -0.09 6% 6.6
7 San Diego Surf 5221 98+1 81.60 DLWWD -0.16 +0.01 2% 7.6
8 Legends FC - Del Mar 6222 78-1 81.33 LWDLD +0.13 -0.11 0% 8.7
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6123 813-5 50.83 DDLWL +0.48 -0.31 0% 10.0
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 611-5 40.80 LDWLL -0.30 +0.14 0% 13.2
11 LAFC 5113 513-8 40.80 LLDLW -0.10 +0.07 0% 13.5
12 Eagles SC 4031 45-1 30.75 LDDD -0.05 -0.03 0% 9.7
13 Rebels SC 4103 15-4 30.75 LWLL +0.39 -0.11 0% 11.8
14 Blues 3021 38-5 20.67 DLD +0.42 -0.08 0% 12.2
15 Sporting California USA 4022 27-5 20.50 DDLL +0.62 -0.18 0% 12.2
16 LA Breakers 4004 113-12 00.00 LLLL +0.66 -0.13 0% 16.0
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 012-12 00.00 LLL +1.13 -0.17 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.