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Alemany High School , Softball 11v11 Grass ↗ · grass

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.1 against · 1.91 expected points)

Common opponents: Beach Futbol Club Gold — we 0–6; they 1–3. Pateadores Soccer Club — we 3–1; they 0–3.

• They struggle to score
  LA Breakers average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 4.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  LA Breakers concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–4 vs Arizona Arsenal.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold, 0–1 at Rebels SC, 0–3 vs Phoenix Rising FC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 56% / draw 22% / loss 22%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  LA Breakers have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Grass field
  Venue listed as "Softball 11v11 Grass" at Alemany High School .

  If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

• What a win does
  Pateadores Soccer Club sit 10th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.80.

  A point moves us above Pateadores Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the LA Breakers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC – LA Breakers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th 1%
9. 9th 2%
10. 10th 4%
11. 11th 7%
12. 12th 11%
13. 13th 15%
14. 14th 22%
15. 15th 22%
16. 16th 11%
17. 17th 4%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).