TableChase Clubs

LV Heat Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)

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17th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-12 goal diff · 0–12
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.8
+1.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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LV Heat Surf
17th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Sporting California USA
15th · 0.50 PPG

Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 6 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 1.0 for, 1.5 against · 0.97 expected points)

Season so farLV Heat SurfSporting California USA
Position17th15th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-30-2-2
Points per game0.000.50
Goals for / game0.00.5
Goals against / game4.01.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)L L LL L D D
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–6 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ RL0–4 vs Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.65-0.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.13+0.62

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 0–4; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Sporting California USA average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 2 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ RL, 0–2 at SLAMMERS FC, 0–4 vs Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    LA Breakers sit 16th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above LA Breakers on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG
14th▲ up 3 13th▲ up 4 15th▲ up 2
Draw
0.25 PPG
16th▲ up 1 16th▲ up 1 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 8%
  15. 15th 13%
  16. 16th 30%
  17. 17th 42%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.34) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
2 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+2.60) 3rd (2.33) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+2.50) 1st (2.37) 40 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.33 (+2.33) 4th (2.15) 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
5 Arizona Arsenal 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.92) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 SLAMMERS FC 1.80 (+1.80) 6th (1.64) 29 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7 San Diego Surf 1.60 (+1.60) 7th (1.49) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
8 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.33 (+1.33) 8th (1.34) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 Phoenix Rising FC 0.83 (+0.83) 10th (1.21) 14 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 0.80 (+0.80) 14th (0.88) 13 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
11 LAFC 0.80 (+0.80) 15th (0.85) 13 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
12 Eagles SC 0.75 (+0.75) 9th (1.22) Win next game
13 Rebels SC 0.75 (+0.75) 11th (1.01) Win next game
14 Blues 0.67 (+0.67) 12th (0.99) A point next game
15 Sporting California USA 0.50 (+0.50) 13th (0.97) A point next game
16 LA Breakers 0.00 (+0.00) 17th (0.51) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 4–0 5–0 1–1 LV Heat Surf 17th Legends FC 3rd Blues 14th Sporting California… 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 15th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
Sporting California USA
15th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Home
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
24%
0–1 0.97 0.24 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD
San Diego Surf
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.52 0.30 Upside
Sat Nov 21
10:00 AM
Arizona Arsenal
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Away far trip
Arizona Athletic Grounds
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.17 0.28 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.53 0.31 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Rebels SC
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
0–1 0.98 0.40 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -1
Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–1 0.67 0.43 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LA Breakers
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.44 0.53 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Gold
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11
Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.15 0.49 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Blues
14th · 0-2-1 · GD -5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.90 0.53 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.71 0.54 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +11
Home
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–2 0.22 0.52 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Eagles SC
12th · 0-3-1 · GD -1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.52 0.52 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
LAFC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.82 0.54 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 176+11 123.00 WWWW -0.09 -0.11 93% 2.5
2 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 131+12 132.60 WWDWW -0.49 +0.05 93% 2.5
3 Legends FC 6501 214+17 152.50 WLWWW -0.35 -0.03 96% 2.2
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 6420 121+11 142.33 DDWWW -0.42 +0.09 76% 3.6
5 Arizona Arsenal 3201 94+5 62.00 WWL -0.24 -0.04 35% 4.8
6 SLAMMERS FC 5302 1211+1 91.80 LWWWL +0.07 -0.09 6% 6.6
7 San Diego Surf 5221 98+1 81.60 DLWWD -0.16 +0.01 2% 7.6
8 Legends FC - Del Mar 6222 78-1 81.33 LWDLD +0.13 -0.11 0% 8.8
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6123 813-5 50.83 DDLWL +0.48 -0.31 0% 10.1
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 611-5 40.80 LDWLL -0.30 +0.14 0% 13.0
11 LAFC 5113 513-8 40.80 LLDLW -0.10 +0.07 0% 13.5
12 Eagles SC 4031 45-1 30.75 LDDD -0.05 -0.03 0% 9.8
13 Rebels SC 4103 15-4 30.75 LWLL +0.39 -0.11 0% 11.8
14 Blues 3021 38-5 20.67 DLD +0.42 -0.08 0% 12.2
15 Sporting California USA 4022 27-5 20.50 DDLL +0.62 -0.18 0% 12.2
16 LA Breakers 4004 113-12 00.00 LLLL +0.66 -0.13 0% 16.0
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 012-12 00.00 LLL +1.13 -0.17 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.