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SLAMMERS FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Southwest GU18/19 · 17 teams · Slammers FC (all teams)

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6th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+1 goal diff · 12–11
LWWWLlast 5
6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.6
+0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:30 AM

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SLAMMERS FC
6th · 1.80 PPG
vs
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 2.33 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 24 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.0 against · 0.73 expected points)

Season so farSLAMMERS FCSlammers FC HB Koge
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-24-2-0
Points per game1.802.33
Goals for / game2.42.0
Goals against / game2.20.2
Clean sheets15
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L W W W LW W W D D
Biggest win2–0 vs LV Heat Surf4–0 vs Pateadores Soccer Club
Worst loss1–3 at Utah Royals FC-AZ RL—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.17+1.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.07-0.42

Common opponents: Pateadores Soccer Club — we 3–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Slammers FC HB Koge concede only 0.2/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Slammers FC HB Koge have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Arizona Arsenal sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A win moves us above Arizona Arsenal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Slammers FC HB Koge game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SLAMMERS FC – Slammers FC HB Koge) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2
Win
2.00 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
6% top 4
94% below the top 4
6.6 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 35%
  7. 7th 21%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 3.00 (+1.20) 2nd (2.34) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
2 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2.60 (+0.80) 3rd (2.33) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Legends FC 2.50 (+0.70) 1st (2.37) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 2.33 (+0.53) 4th (2.15) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Arizona Arsenal 2.00 (+0.20) 5th (1.92) Win next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link SLAMMERS FC to Slammers FC HB Koge through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
3 favour them
-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 0–4 3–2 2–0 0–2 3–0 0–3 2–1 1–1 3–5 3–1 1–3 1–0 SLAMMERS FC 6th Pateadores Soccer C… 10th Legends FC - Del Mar 8th Beach Futbol Club G… 1st Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 2nd Rebels SC 13th LA Breakers 16th San Diego Surf 7th Slammers FC HB Koge 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
08:30 AM
Slammers FC HB Koge
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +11
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–2 0.73 1.62 Upside
Sun Nov 1
06:00 PM
LA Breakers
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Home
Saddleback College · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–0 2.55 1.75 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Eagles SC
12th · 0-3-1 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.42 1.71 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Sporting California USA
15th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.06 1.75 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LAFC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -8
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.03 1.78 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.60 1.76 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 1.69 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
San Diego Surf
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.59 1.68 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Rebels SC
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–1 1.99 1.70 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Blues
14th · 0-2-1 · GD -5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.73 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
Legends FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17
Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.37 1.64 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4400 176+11 123.00 WWWW -0.09 -0.11 93% 2.5
2 Utah Royals FC-AZ RL 5410 131+12 132.60 WWDWW -0.49 +0.05 93% 2.5
3 Legends FC 6501 214+17 152.50 WLWWW -0.35 -0.03 96% 2.2
4 Slammers FC HB Koge 6420 121+11 142.33 DDWWW -0.42 +0.09 76% 3.6
5 Arizona Arsenal 3201 94+5 62.00 WWL -0.24 -0.04 35% 4.8
6 SLAMMERS FC 5302 1211+1 91.80 LWWWL +0.07 -0.09 6% 6.6
7 San Diego Surf 5221 98+1 81.60 DLWWD -0.16 +0.01 2% 7.6
8 Legends FC - Del Mar 6222 78-1 81.33 LWDLD +0.13 -0.11 0% 8.8
9 Phoenix Rising FC 6123 813-5 50.83 DDLWL +0.48 -0.31 0% 10.1
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 5113 611-5 40.80 LDWLL -0.30 +0.14 0% 13.0
11 LAFC 5113 513-8 40.80 LLDLW -0.10 +0.07 0% 13.5
12 Eagles SC 4031 45-1 30.75 LDDD -0.05 -0.03 0% 9.8
13 Rebels SC 4103 15-4 30.75 LWLL +0.39 -0.11 0% 11.8
14 Blues 3021 38-5 20.67 DLD +0.42 -0.08 0% 12.2
15 Sporting California USA 4022 27-5 20.50 DDLL +0.62 -0.18 0% 12.2
16 LA Breakers 4004 113-12 00.00 LLLL +0.66 -0.13 0% 16.0
17 LV Heat Surf 3003 012-12 00.00 LLL +1.13 -0.17 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.