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Sting Black NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU13 · 20 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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17th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-22 goal diff · 5–27
LLLWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 17.4
+1.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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Sting Black NTX
17th · 0.60 PPG
at
Dallas Texans Red NTX
19th · 0.17 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 17 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.0 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so farSting Black NTXDallas Texans Red NTX
Position17th19th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-40-1-5
Points per game0.600.17
Goals for / game1.00.3
Goals against / game5.44.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless15
Form (recent first)L W L L LD L L L L
Biggest win2–1 vs DKSC NTX—
Worst loss1–16 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX0–8 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.34-2.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.25+1.01

Common opponents: DKSC WHITE NTX — we 1–5; they 0–6. DKSC NTX — we 2–1; they 2–6. FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 1–16; they 0–8.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Dallas Texans Red NTX average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 5 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Dallas Texans Red NTX concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–8 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Sting Royal NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 48% / draw 19% / loss 32%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth White NTX sit 16th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth White NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Red NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Black NTX – Dallas Texans Red NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.67 PPG
17th— holds 18th▼ down 1 18th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG
14th▲ up 3 14th▲ up 3 17th— holds
Draw
0.67 PPG
17th— holds 18th▼ down 1 18th▼ down 1
Loss
0.50 PPG
18th▼ down 1 19th▼ down 2 19th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 17th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
17.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th 9%
  17. 17th 25%
  18. 18th 40%
  19. 19th 14%
  20. 20th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.74) 42 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 3.00 (+2.40) 2nd (2.69) 42 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Brave NTX 2.40 (+1.80) 3rd (2.15) 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 2.33 (+1.73) 4th (1.95) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 2.00 (+1.40) 6th (1.61) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.80 (+1.20) 5th (1.95) 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7 Alpha Forms NTX 1.80 (+1.20) 10th (1.48) 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 1.60 (+1.00) 7th (1.56) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 1.60 (+1.00) 12th (1.35) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 Sting Royal NTX 1.50 (+0.90) 8th (1.52) 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 Nido Dallas NTX 1.40 (+0.80) 14th (1.15) 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 DKSC NTX 1.33 (+0.73) 9th (1.49) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 1.17 (+0.57) 11th (1.38) 15 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
14 SOLAR WHITE NTX 0.80 (+0.20) 15th (1.04) A point next game
15 SOLAR RED NTX 0.80 (+0.20) 16th (1.03) A point next game
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 0.80 (+0.20) 13th (1.21) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Black NTX to Dallas Texans Red NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 6–0 2–1 6–2 1–16 8–0 2–2 1–3 0–5 0–2 2–2 2–0 5–0 3–3 3–3 3–1 Sting Black NTX 17th DKSC WHITE NTX 4th DKSC NTX 12th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 1st FC Dallas Youth Red… 9th Sting Royal NTX 10th Sting Royal NTX Bold 13th Dallas Texans Red N… 19th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 15 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 15th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
19th · 0-1-5 · GD -27
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.65 0.77 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:50 AM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
14th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.78 0.78 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:40 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
15th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.59 0.75 Upside
Sat Feb 6
08:00 AM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.71 Upside
Sat Feb 20
08:00 AM
NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–4 0.44 0.68 Upside
Sun Feb 21
05:10 PM
Fever United FC NTX
20th · 0-0-5 · GD -42
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
4–2 2.28 0.83 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
11:40 AM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.17 0.77 Upside
Sat Mar 6
11:40 AM
Sting Brave NTX
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.15 0.73 Upside
Sat Apr 3
09:50 AM
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +32
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–8 0.01 0.67 Upside
Sat Apr 10
03:20 PM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
18th · 0-2-3 · GD -14
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.07 0.70 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4400 341+33 123.00 WWWW -1.41 -0.15 100% 1.4
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5500 342+32 153.00 WWWWW -1.26 +0.18 100% 1.7
3 Sting Brave NTX 5401 227+15 122.40 WLWWW -0.85 +0.23 84% 3.6
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 6420 207+13 142.33 WDDWW -0.66 +0.69 46% 5.1
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5311 145+9 102.00 WWWDL -1.72 +0.62 7% 8.0
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 5302 126+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.00 -0.41 47% 5.1
7 Alpha Forms NTX 5302 1611+5 91.80 WWWLL -0.99 +0.54 3% 9.5
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5221 1412+2 81.60 LDDWW +0.17 -0.03 5% 8.7
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5221 1113-2 81.60 WWLDD +0.84 +0.29 1% 11.1
10 Sting Royal NTX 4130 86+2 61.50 DWDD -0.21 -0.10 4% 8.9
11 Nido Dallas NTX 5212 712-5 71.40 DWLLW +0.52 +0.23 0% 13.3
12 DKSC NTX 6222 1411+3 81.33 DDLWL -0.29 -0.03 2% 9.2
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 6213 1712+5 71.17 WWDLL -0.74 +0.29 1% 10.3
14 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5113 1014-4 40.80 LLLDW -0.67 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 812-4 40.80 LDLWL -0.25 +0.21 0% 14.4
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5113 1015-5 40.80 WLLDL +1.43 -0.46 0% 12.5
17 Sting Black NTX 5104 527-22 30.60 LLLWL +1.25 -0.29 0% 17.4
18 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5023 418-14 20.40 DLDLL +0.65 -0.38 0% 16.8
19 Dallas Texans Red NTX 6015 229-27 10.17 LLLLD +1.01 -0.31 0% 18.9
20 Fever United FC NTX 5005 547-42 00.00 LLLLL +1.39 -0.38 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.