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FC Dallas Youth Red NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU13 · 20 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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9th
2-2-1 record · 5 played
1.60 points per game
-2 goal diff · 11–13
WWLDDlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.1
+0.84 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
9th · 1.60 PPG
at
Nido Dallas NTX
11th · 1.40 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.0 against · 1.50 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Red NTXNido Dallas NTX
Position9th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-12-1-2
Points per game1.601.40
Goals for / game2.21.4
Goals against / game2.62.4
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)D D L W WW L L W D
Biggest win3–1 at Sting Black NTX3–2 at SOLAR WHITE NTX
Worst loss0–5 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX2–6 vs NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.10-0.55
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.84+0.52

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 43% / draw 20% / loss 37%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    NTX Celtic FC Green NTX sit 8th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.60.

    A point moves us above NTX Celtic FC Green NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nido Dallas NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Red NTX – Nido Dallas NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.83 PPG
6th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Win
1.83 PPG
6th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Draw
1.50 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Loss
1.33 PPG
12th▼ down 3 12th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
11.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th 12%
  14. 14th 9%
  15. 15th 7%
  16. 16th 5%
  17. 17th 2%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th <1%
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+1.40) 1st (2.74) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 3.00 (+1.40) 2nd (2.69) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Brave NTX 2.40 (+0.80) 3rd (2.15) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 2.33 (+0.73) 4th (1.95) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 2.00 (+0.40) 6th (1.61) 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.80 (+0.20) 5th (1.95) A point next game
7 Alpha Forms NTX 1.80 (+0.20) 10th (1.48) A point next game
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 1.60 (+0.00) 7th (1.56) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 15 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.29 · 5th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM
Nido Dallas NTX
11th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–1 1.50 1.58 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
03:20 PM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
16th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.34 1.55 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:40 AM
NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.36 1.52 Upside
Sat Feb 6
08:00 AM
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +32
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.13 1.37 Upside
Sat Feb 20
08:00 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
15th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.50 1.38 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
08:00 AM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.72 1.32 Upside
Sat Feb 27
08:00 AM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
19th · 0-1-5 · GD -27
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.64 1.43 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
11:40 AM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.14 1.41 Upside
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM
DKSC WHITE NTX
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +13
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.88 1.37 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
Alpha Forms NTX
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +5
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.07 1.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4400 341+33 123.00 WWWW -1.41 -0.15 100% 1.4
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5500 342+32 153.00 WWWWW -1.26 +0.18 100% 1.7
3 Sting Brave NTX 5401 227+15 122.40 WLWWW -0.85 +0.23 83% 3.7
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 6420 207+13 142.33 WDDWW -0.66 +0.69 47% 5.0
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5311 145+9 102.00 WWWDL -1.72 +0.62 9% 8.0
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 5302 126+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.00 -0.41 47% 5.0
7 Alpha Forms NTX 5302 1611+5 91.80 WWWLL -0.99 +0.54 4% 9.6
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5221 1412+2 81.60 LDDWW +0.17 -0.03 5% 8.7
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5221 1113-2 81.60 WWLDD +0.84 +0.29 1% 11.1
10 Sting Royal NTX 4130 86+2 61.50 DWDD -0.21 -0.10 4% 9.1
11 Nido Dallas NTX 5212 712-5 71.40 DWLLW +0.52 +0.23 0% 13.3
12 DKSC NTX 6222 1411+3 81.33 DDLWL -0.29 -0.03 1% 9.3
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 6213 1712+5 71.17 WWDLL -0.74 +0.29 1% 10.2
14 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5113 1014-4 40.80 LLLDW -0.67 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 812-4 40.80 LDLWL -0.25 +0.21 0% 14.5
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5113 1015-5 40.80 WLLDL +1.43 -0.46 0% 12.4
17 Sting Black NTX 5104 527-22 30.60 LLLWL +1.25 -0.29 0% 17.4
18 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5023 418-14 20.40 DLDLL +0.65 -0.38 0% 16.8
19 Dallas Texans Red NTX 6015 229-27 10.17 LLLLD +1.01 -0.31 0% 18.9
20 Fever United FC NTX 5005 547-42 00.00 LLLLL +1.39 -0.38 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.