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Dallas Texans Red NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU13 · 20 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

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19th
0-1-5 record · 6 played
0.17 points per game
-27 goal diff · 2–29
LLLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 18.9
+1.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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Dallas Texans Red NTX
19th · 0.17 PPG
vs
Sting Black NTX
17th · 0.60 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 17 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.5 against · 1.16 expected points)

Season so farDallas Texans Red NTXSting Black NTX
Position19th17th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-51-0-4
Points per game0.170.60
Goals for / game0.31.0
Goals against / game4.85.4
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless51
Form (recent first)D L L L LL W L L L
Biggest win—2–1 vs DKSC NTX
Worst loss0–8 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX1–16 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.65-2.34
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.01+1.25

Common opponents: DKSC WHITE NTX — we 0–6; they 1–5. FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 0–8; they 1–16. DKSC NTX — we 2–6; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Sting Black NTX average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sting Black NTX concede 5.4/game; worst result 1–16 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–6 vs DKSC WHITE NTX, 0–4 at Kernow Storm FC NTX, 0–5 at Sting Royal NTX Bold, 0–8 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX, 0–0 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    NTX Celtic FC NTX sit 18th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.17.

    A point moves us above NTX Celtic FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Black NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans Red NTX – Sting Black NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.29 PPG		 19th— holds 19th— holds 20th▼ down 1
Win
0.57 PPG		 17th▲ up 2 18th▲ up 1 18th▲ up 1
Draw
0.29 PPG		 19th— holds 19th— holds 20th▼ down 1
Loss
0.14 PPG		 19th— holds 19th— holds 20th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 19th even if every rival loses, and as low as 20th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
18.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th 5%
  18. 18th 17%
  19. 19th 54%
  20. 20th 23%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+2.83) 1st (2.74) 44 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 3.00 (+2.83) 2nd (2.69) 44 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Brave NTX 2.40 (+2.23) 3rd (2.15) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 2.33 (+2.16) 4th (1.95) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 2.00 (+1.83) 6th (1.61) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.80 (+1.63) 5th (1.95) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Alpha Forms NTX 1.80 (+1.63) 10th (1.48) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 1.60 (+1.43) 7th (1.56) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 1.60 (+1.43) 12th (1.35) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 Sting Royal NTX 1.50 (+1.33) 8th (1.52) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
11 Nido Dallas NTX 1.40 (+1.23) 14th (1.15) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
12 DKSC NTX 1.33 (+1.16) 9th (1.49) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 1.17 (+1.00) 11th (1.38) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
14 SOLAR WHITE NTX 0.80 (+0.63) 15th (1.04) 11 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
15 SOLAR RED NTX 0.80 (+0.63) 16th (1.03) 11 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 0.80 (+0.63) 13th (1.21) 11 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
17 Sting Black NTX 0.60 (+0.43) 18th (0.70) 8 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
18 NTX Celtic FC NTX 0.40 (+0.23) 17th (0.77) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans Red NTX to Sting Black NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
9 favour them
-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 5–1 2–6 1–2 0–8 16–1 2–2 5–0 3–1 2–2 2–0 0–5 3–3 0–2 3–3 1–3 Dallas Texans Red N… 19th DKSC WHITE NTX 4th DKSC NTX 12th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 1st Sting Royal NTX Bold 13th FC Dallas Youth Red… 9th Sting Royal NTX 10th Sting Black NTX 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 15 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.31 · 16th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM		 Sting Black NTX
17th · 1-0-4 · GD -22		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 2–2 1.16 0.31 Upside
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM		 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +32		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 0.27 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:40 AM		 Sting Brave NTX
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.05 0.25 Upside
Sat Feb 6
08:00 AM		 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.29 0.25 Upside
Sat Feb 20
11:40 AM		 SOLAR BLUE NTX
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.21 0.25 Upside
Sat Feb 27
08:00 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
9th · 2-2-1 · GD -2		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–3 0.27 0.25 Upside
Sat Mar 6
08:00 AM		 SOLAR RED NTX
15th · 1-1-3 · GD -4		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.41 0.26 Upside
Sat Apr 3
03:20 PM		 NTX Celtic FC NTX
18th · 0-2-3 · GD -14		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 1.02 0.32 Upside
Sat Apr 10
03:20 PM		 Fever United FC NTX
20th · 0-0-5 · GD -42		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 3–2 1.79 0.42 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4400 341+33 123.00 WWWW -1.41 -0.15 100% 1.4
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5500 342+32 153.00 WWWWW -1.26 +0.18 100% 1.7
3 Sting Brave NTX 5401 227+15 122.40 WLWWW -0.85 +0.23 84% 3.6
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 6420 207+13 142.33 WDDWW -0.66 +0.69 46% 5.1
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5311 145+9 102.00 WWWDL -1.72 +0.62 7% 8.0
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 5302 126+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.00 -0.41 47% 5.1
7 Alpha Forms NTX 5302 1611+5 91.80 WWWLL -0.99 +0.54 3% 9.5
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5221 1412+2 81.60 LDDWW +0.17 -0.03 5% 8.7
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5221 1113-2 81.60 WWLDD +0.84 +0.29 1% 11.1
10 Sting Royal NTX 4130 86+2 61.50 DWDD -0.21 -0.10 4% 8.9
11 Nido Dallas NTX 5212 712-5 71.40 DWLLW +0.52 +0.23 0% 13.3
12 DKSC NTX 6222 1411+3 81.33 DDLWL -0.29 -0.03 2% 9.2
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 6213 1712+5 71.17 WWDLL -0.74 +0.29 1% 10.3
14 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5113 1014-4 40.80 LLLDW -0.67 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 812-4 40.80 LDLWL -0.25 +0.21 0% 14.4
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5113 1015-5 40.80 WLLDL +1.43 -0.46 0% 12.5
17 Sting Black NTX 5104 527-22 30.60 LLLWL +1.25 -0.29 0% 17.4
18 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5023 418-14 20.40 DLDLL +0.65 -0.38 0% 16.8
19 Dallas Texans Red NTX 6015 229-27 10.17 LLLLD +1.01 -0.31 0% 18.9
20 Fever United FC NTX 5005 547-42 00.00 LLLLL +1.39 -0.38 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.