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SOLAR WHITE NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU13 · 20 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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14th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-4 goal diff · 10–14
LLLDWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.4
-0.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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SOLAR WHITE NTX
14th · 0.80 PPG
vs
Sting Brave NTX
3rd · 2.40 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 15 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.8 for, 3.7 against · 0.55 expected points)

Season so farSOLAR WHITE NTXSting Brave NTX
Position14th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-1-34-0-1
Points per game0.802.40
Goals for / game2.04.4
Goals against / game2.81.4
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W D L L LW W W L W
Biggest win4–2 at SOLAR RED NTX12–0 at Fever United FC NTX
Worst loss1–4 at SOLAR BLUE NTX3–4 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.57+1.70
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.67-0.85

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth White NTX — we 3–5; they 3–2. SOLAR BLUE NTX — we 1–4; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sting Brave NTX score 4.4/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Dallas Texans Red NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Sting Brave NTX have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Brave NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR WHITE NTX – Sting Brave NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG
16th▼ down 2 16th▼ down 2 18th▼ down 4
Win
1.17 PPG
14th— holds 13th▲ up 1 14th— holds
Draw
0.83 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 17th▼ down 3
Loss
0.67 PPG
16th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 1 18th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 10%
  14. 14th 15%
  15. 15th 17%
  16. 16th 18%
  17. 17th 13%
  18. 18th 6%
  19. 19th 1%
  20. 20th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+2.20) 1st (2.74) 41 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 3.00 (+2.20) 2nd (2.69) 41 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Brave NTX 2.40 (+1.60) 3rd (2.15) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 2.33 (+1.53) 4th (1.95) 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 2.00 (+1.20) 6th (1.61) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.80 (+1.00) 5th (1.95) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Alpha Forms NTX 1.80 (+1.00) 10th (1.48) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 1.60 (+0.80) 7th (1.56) 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 1.60 (+0.80) 12th (1.35) 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10 Sting Royal NTX 1.50 (+0.70) 8th (1.52) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11 Nido Dallas NTX 1.40 (+0.60) 14th (1.15) 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
12 DKSC NTX 1.33 (+0.53) 9th (1.49) 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 1.17 (+0.37) 11th (1.38) 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR WHITE NTX to Sting Brave NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–5 2–3 1–4 1–2 0–0 2–6 0–2 SOLAR WHITE NTX 14th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 16th SOLAR BLUE NTX 6th Dallas Texans Red N… 19th DKSC NTX 12th Sting Brave NTX 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 15 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 9th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM
Sting Brave NTX
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 0.76 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:50 AM
Sting Black NTX
17th · 1-0-4 · GD -22
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–2 2.06 0.94 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
03:20 PM
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +32
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.15 0.84 Upside
Sat Feb 6
03:20 PM
Alpha Forms NTX
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +5
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.16 0.88 Upside
Sat Feb 20
03:20 PM
Sting Royal NTX Bold
13th · 2-1-3 · GD +5
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–3 0.82 0.87 Upside
Sun Feb 21
09:50 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +33
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.11 0.80 Upside
Sat Feb 27
03:20 PM
Sting Royal NTX
10th · 1-3-0 · GD +2
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.15 0.83 Upside
Sat Mar 6
08:00 AM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
18th · 0-2-3 · GD -14
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.83 0.91 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
03:20 PM
Fever United FC NTX
20th · 0-0-5 · GD -42
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
5–2 2.63 1.03 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
03:20 PM
DKSC NTX
12th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.13 1.04 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4400 341+33 123.00 WWWW -1.41 -0.15 100% 1.4
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5500 342+32 153.00 WWWWW -1.26 +0.18 100% 1.7
3 Sting Brave NTX 5401 227+15 122.40 WLWWW -0.85 +0.23 83% 3.7
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 6420 207+13 142.33 WDDWW -0.66 +0.69 47% 5.0
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5311 145+9 102.00 WWWDL -1.72 +0.62 9% 8.0
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 5302 126+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.00 -0.41 47% 5.0
7 Alpha Forms NTX 5302 1611+5 91.80 WWWLL -0.99 +0.54 4% 9.6
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5221 1412+2 81.60 LDDWW +0.17 -0.03 5% 8.7
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5221 1113-2 81.60 WWLDD +0.84 +0.29 1% 11.1
10 Sting Royal NTX 4130 86+2 61.50 DWDD -0.21 -0.10 4% 9.1
11 Nido Dallas NTX 5212 712-5 71.40 DWLLW +0.52 +0.23 0% 13.3
12 DKSC NTX 6222 1411+3 81.33 DDLWL -0.29 -0.03 1% 9.3
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 6213 1712+5 71.17 WWDLL -0.74 +0.29 1% 10.2
14 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5113 1014-4 40.80 LLLDW -0.67 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 812-4 40.80 LDLWL -0.25 +0.21 0% 14.5
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5113 1015-5 40.80 WLLDL +1.43 -0.46 0% 12.4
17 Sting Black NTX 5104 527-22 30.60 LLLWL +1.25 -0.29 0% 17.4
18 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5023 418-14 20.40 DLDLL +0.65 -0.38 0% 16.8
19 Dallas Texans Red NTX 6015 229-27 10.17 LLLLD +1.01 -0.31 0% 18.9
20 Fever United FC NTX 5005 547-42 00.00 LLLLL +1.39 -0.38 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.