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Dallas Cosmos SC NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU13 · 20 teams · Dallas Cosmos Soccer Club (all teams)

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2nd
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+32 goal diff · 34–2
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7
-1.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
2nd · 3.00 PPG
vs

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.8 for, 2.7 against · 1.47 expected points)

Season so farDallas Cosmos SC NTXFC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)5-0-04-0-0
Points per game3.003.00
Goals for / game6.88.5
Goals against / game0.40.3
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WW W W W
Biggest win14–1 at Fever United FC NTX16–1 vs Sting Black NTX
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.60+4.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.26-1.41

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX score 8.5/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX concede only 0.2/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 43% / draw 17% / loss 39%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Cosmos SC NTX – FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.67 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.67 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Loss
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

39% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.7 average finish
  1. 1st 39%
  2. 2nd 57%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.74) Win next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 15 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 10th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +33
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 2.75 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
19th · 0-1-5 · GD -27
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.98 2.78 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
03:20 PM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
14th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.80 2.78 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
08:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
9th · 2-2-1 · GD -2
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.82 2.79 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
08:00 AM
DKSC WHITE NTX
4th · 4-2-0 · GD +13
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.43 2.75 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
09:50 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
15th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.87 2.76 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
08:00 AM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +9
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 2.73 Bank it
Thu Mar 4
06:30 PM
DKSC NTX
12th · 2-2-2 · GD +3
Away
Railroad Park
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.56 2.72 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
09:50 AM
Sting Black NTX
17th · 1-0-4 · GD -22
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
8–0 2.98 2.74 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
09:50 AM
Sting Brave NTX
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.11 2.69 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4400 341+33 123.00 WWWW -1.41 -0.15 100% 1.4
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5500 342+32 153.00 WWWWW -1.26 +0.18 100% 1.7
3 Sting Brave NTX 5401 227+15 122.40 WLWWW -0.85 +0.23 81% 3.7
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 6420 207+13 142.33 WDDWW -0.66 +0.69 47% 5.0
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5311 145+9 102.00 WWWDL -1.72 +0.62 8% 8.0
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 5302 126+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.00 -0.41 47% 5.0
7 Alpha Forms NTX 5302 1611+5 91.80 WWWLL -0.99 +0.54 4% 9.6
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5221 1412+2 81.60 LDDWW +0.17 -0.03 6% 8.6
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5221 1113-2 81.60 WWLDD +0.84 +0.29 1% 11.0
10 Sting Royal NTX 4130 86+2 61.50 DWDD -0.21 -0.10 4% 9.1
11 Nido Dallas NTX 5212 712-5 71.40 DWLLW +0.52 +0.23 0% 13.3
12 DKSC NTX 6222 1411+3 81.33 DDLWL -0.29 -0.03 2% 9.2
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 6213 1712+5 71.17 WWDLL -0.74 +0.29 1% 10.3
14 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5113 1014-4 40.80 LLLDW -0.67 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 812-4 40.80 LDLWL -0.25 +0.21 0% 14.5
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5113 1015-5 40.80 WLLDL +1.43 -0.46 0% 12.5
17 Sting Black NTX 5104 527-22 30.60 LLLWL +1.25 -0.29 0% 17.4
18 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5023 418-14 20.40 DLDLL +0.65 -0.38 0% 16.8
19 Dallas Texans Red NTX 6015 229-27 10.17 LLLLD +1.01 -0.31 0% 18.9
20 Fever United FC NTX 5005 547-42 00.00 LLLLL +1.39 -0.38 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.