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DKSC NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU13 · 20 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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12th
2-2-2 record · 6 played
1.33 points per game
+3 goal diff · 14–11
DDLWLlast 5
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.1
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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DKSC NTX
12th · 1.33 PPG
vs
SOLAR RED NTX
15th · 0.80 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.5 against · 1.97 expected points)

Season so farDKSC NTXSOLAR RED NTX
Position12th15th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-21-1-3
Points per game1.330.80
Goals for / game2.31.6
Goals against / game1.82.4
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W L D DL W L D L
Biggest win6–2 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX2–0 at NTX Celtic FC NTX
Worst loss0–2 at Sting Brave NTX1–4 at Alpha Forms NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.28-0.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29-0.25

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Sting Brave NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 60% / draw 18% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Nido Dallas NTX sit 11th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above Nido Dallas NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR RED NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC NTX – SOLAR RED NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.57 PPG
10th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 4 12th— holds
Win
1.57 PPG
10th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 4 12th— holds
Draw
1.29 PPG
12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 1
Loss
1.14 PPG
14th▼ down 2 14th▼ down 2 16th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
9.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 15%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 10%
  12. 12th 7%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 3.00 (+1.67) 1st (2.74) 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 3.00 (+1.67) 2nd (2.69) 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sting Brave NTX 2.40 (+1.07) 3rd (2.15) 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 2.33 (+1.00) 4th (1.95) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 2.00 (+0.67) 6th (1.61) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.80 (+0.47) 5th (1.95) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 Alpha Forms NTX 1.80 (+0.47) 10th (1.48) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 1.60 (+0.27) 7th (1.56) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 1.60 (+0.27) 12th (1.35) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
10 Sting Royal NTX 1.50 (+0.17) 8th (1.52) A point next game
11 Nido Dallas NTX 1.40 (+0.07) 14th (1.15) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC NTX to SOLAR RED NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–2 0–4 2–1 0–0 4–2 DKSC NTX 12th Dallas Texans Red N… 19th Kernow Storm FC NTX 5th SOLAR WHITE NTX 14th SOLAR RED NTX 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 15 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 12th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:00 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
15th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 1.42 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:50 AM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
18th · 0-2-3 · GD -14
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 1.52 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
05:10 PM
Fever United FC NTX
20th · 0-0-5 · GD -42
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.90 1.67 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
11:40 AM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
16th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.85 1.69 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
11:40 AM
Nido Dallas NTX
11th · 2-1-2 · GD -5
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.68 1.69 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
11:40 AM
Alpha Forms NTX
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +5
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 1.68 Swing game
Thu Mar 4
06:30 PM
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +32
Home
Railroad Park
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 1.58 Upside
Sat Apr 3
03:20 PM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +33
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.16 1.48 Upside
Sat Apr 10
03:20 PM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
14th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.68 1.49 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 4400 341+33 123.00 WWWW -1.41 -0.15 100% 1.4
2 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5500 342+32 153.00 WWWWW -1.26 +0.18 100% 1.7
3 Sting Brave NTX 5401 227+15 122.40 WLWWW -0.85 +0.23 82% 3.6
4 DKSC WHITE NTX 6420 207+13 142.33 WDDWW -0.66 +0.69 46% 5.0
5 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5311 145+9 102.00 WWWDL -1.72 +0.62 8% 8.0
6 SOLAR BLUE NTX 5302 126+6 91.80 LLWWW +1.00 -0.41 47% 5.1
7 Alpha Forms NTX 5302 1611+5 91.80 WWWLL -0.99 +0.54 3% 9.4
8 NTX Celtic FC Green NTX 5221 1412+2 81.60 LDDWW +0.17 -0.03 6% 8.6
9 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5221 1113-2 81.60 WWLDD +0.84 +0.29 1% 11.1
10 Sting Royal NTX 4130 86+2 61.50 DWDD -0.21 -0.10 5% 9.0
11 Nido Dallas NTX 5212 712-5 71.40 DWLLW +0.52 +0.23 0% 13.2
12 DKSC NTX 6222 1411+3 81.33 DDLWL -0.29 -0.03 2% 9.1
13 Sting Royal NTX Bold 6213 1712+5 71.17 WWDLL -0.74 +0.29 1% 10.4
14 SOLAR WHITE NTX 5113 1014-4 40.80 LLLDW -0.67 +0.19 0% 14.5
15 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 812-4 40.80 LDLWL -0.25 +0.21 0% 14.6
16 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5113 1015-5 40.80 WLLDL +1.43 -0.46 0% 12.5
17 Sting Black NTX 5104 527-22 30.60 LLLWL +1.25 -0.29 0% 17.4
18 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5023 418-14 20.40 DLDLL +0.65 -0.38 0% 16.8
19 Dallas Texans Red NTX 6015 229-27 10.17 LLLLD +1.01 -0.31 0% 18.9
20 Fever United FC NTX 5005 547-42 00.00 LLLLL +1.39 -0.38 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.