SOLAR RED NTX
ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU13 · 20 teams · Solar SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM
Dallas Soccer Park, Field 10 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.6 against · 0.84 expected points)
| Season so far | SOLAR RED NTX | DKSC NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L D L | L W L D D |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at NTX Celtic FC NTX | 6–2 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at Alpha Forms NTX | 0–2 at Sting Brave NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.57 | +0.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.25 | -0.29 |
Game plan
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
-
What a win does
SOLAR WHITE NTX sit 14th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above SOLAR WHITE NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the DKSC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR RED NTX – DKSC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.67 PPG |
16th▼ down 1 | 15th— holds | 18th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
13th▲ up 2 | 12th▲ up 3 | 14th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
14th▲ up 1 | 14th▲ up 1 | 17th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
16th▼ down 1 | 15th— holds | 18th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 2%
- 11th 4%
- 12th 7%
- 13th 12%
- 14th 17%
- 15th 20%
- 16th 22%
- 17th 10%
- 18th 4%
- 19th 1%
- 20th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.74) | 41 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Dallas Cosmos SC NTX | 3.00 (+2.20) | 2nd (2.69) | 41 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Sting Brave NTX | 2.40 (+1.60) | 3rd (2.15) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 2.33 (+1.53) | 4th (1.95) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 2.00 (+1.20) | 6th (1.61) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 1.80 (+1.00) | 5th (1.95) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 7 | Alpha Forms NTX | 1.80 (+1.00) | 10th (1.48) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 8 | NTX Celtic FC Green NTX | 1.60 (+0.80) | 7th (1.56) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 9 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 1.60 (+0.80) | 12th (1.35) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 10 | Sting Royal NTX | 1.50 (+0.70) | 8th (1.52) | 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 11 | Nido Dallas NTX | 1.40 (+0.60) | 14th (1.15) | 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 12 | DKSC NTX | 1.33 (+0.53) | 9th (1.49) | 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 13 | Sting Royal NTX Bold | 1.17 (+0.37) | 11th (1.38) | 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 14 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 0.80 (+0.00) | 15th (1.04) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
2 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link SOLAR RED NTX to DKSC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.21 · 8th hardest of 20
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM |
DKSC NTX 12th · 2-2-2 · GD +3 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:50 AM |
Fever United FC NTX 20th · 0-0-5 · GD -42 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
5–1 | 2.74 | 1.08 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 11:40 AM |
Sting Black NTX 17th · 1-0-4 · GD -22 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.27 | 1.23 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 11:40 AM |
SOLAR BLUE NTX 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +6 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 08:00 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 9th · 2-2-1 · GD -2 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 09:50 AM |
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +32 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.09 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 08:00 AM |
DKSC WHITE NTX 4th · 4-2-0 · GD +13 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 08:00 AM |
Dallas Texans Red NTX 19th · 0-1-5 · GD -27 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 1.15 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 09:50 AM |
Sting Brave NTX 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.37 | 1.10 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 08:00 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +33 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 1.03 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | +33 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -1.41 | -0.15 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Cosmos SC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Brave NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Dallas Cosmos SC NTX | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | +32 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +0.18 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR WHITE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Sting Brave NTX | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.85 | +0.23 | 82% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 14 | 2.33 | WDDWW | -0.66 | +0.69 | 46% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alpha Forms NTX · Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC Green NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWDL | -1.72 | +0.62 | 10% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTX Celtic FC Green NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Alpha Forms NTX · Sat Nov 7 at DKSC WHITE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +1.00 | -0.41 | 47% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Royal NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Nido Dallas NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Alpha Forms NTX | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 9 | 1.80 | WWWLL | -0.99 | +0.54 | 3% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | NTX Celtic FC Green NTX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 8 | 1.60 | LDDWW | +0.17 | -0.03 | 6% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 8 | 1.60 | WWLDD | +0.84 | +0.29 | 1% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs NTX Celtic FC Green NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Sting Royal NTX | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | DWDD | -0.21 | -0.10 | 4% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Royal NTX Bold · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Alpha Forms NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Nido Dallas NTX | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 | 1.40 | DWLLW | +0.52 | +0.23 | 0% | 13.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Royal NTX Bold · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | DKSC NTX | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 8 | 1.33 | DDLWL | -0.29 | -0.03 | 1% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Oct 31 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Fever United FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Sting Royal NTX Bold | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 7 | 1.17 | WWDLL | -0.74 | +0.29 | 1% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Royal NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Nido Dallas NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | LLLDW | -0.67 | +0.19 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Black NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Dallas Cosmos SC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | SOLAR RED NTX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | -0.25 | +0.21 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Black NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLDL | +1.43 | -0.46 | 0% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal NTX Bold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | Sting Black NTX | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 27 | -22 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +1.25 | -0.29 | 0% | 17.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR RED NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 2 | 0.40 | DLDLL | +0.65 | -0.38 | 0% | 16.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fever United FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 29 | -27 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLD | +1.01 | -0.31 | 0% | 18.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Black NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Cosmos SC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Brave NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | Fever United FC NTX | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 47 | -42 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.39 | -0.38 | 0% | 19.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Nov 7 at DKSC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.