Stanislaus Surf

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River Islands Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.1 against · 2.36 expected points)

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 5–0 at Pleasanton RAGE (W)

Common opponents: San Juan SC — we 0–4; they 0–5. Bay Area Surf — we 1–3; they 3–4. MVLA — we 1–5; they 0–9. Placer United — we 0–0; they 0–9, 1–2. Mustang SC — we 1–2; they 0–2, 2–4. Davis Legacy — we 0–1, 1–4; they 0–5.

• They struggle to score
  Pleasanton RAGE average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 7 of 10.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Pleasanton RAGE concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–9 at Placer United.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 at San Juan SC, 0–0 vs Placer United, 0–1 vs Davis Legacy.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 2–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Pleasanton RAGE have lost 10 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

Where we'd sit after the Pleasanton RAGE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Stanislaus Surf – Pleasanton RAGE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th 5%
9. 9th 94%
10. 10th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.79 PPG if we win out).