Mustang SC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU18/19 · 10 teams · Mustang Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.2 against · 1.08 expected points)
| Season so far | Mustang SC | Bay Area Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-5 | 5-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 1.78 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L L | L W L L W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Force | 5–2 at Davis Legacy |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at Marin FC | 0–7 at San Juan SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.29 | -0.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.39 | -0.02 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–3 vs Bay Area Surf (L)
Common opponents: Placer United — we 1–2; they 1–0. Davis Legacy — we 0–2; they 5–2. Force — we 3–0; they 0–1, 2–3. Marin FC — we 1–4; they 1–1. San Juan SC — we 1–4; they 0–7. Stanislaus Surf — we 2–1; they 3–1. Pleasanton RAGE — we 2–0, 4–2; they 4–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at MVLA, 0–2 at Davis Legacy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 29%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Davis Legacy sit 7th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.30.A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Bay Area Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mustang SC – Bay Area Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.18 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 1.45 PPG |
5th▲ up 3 | 6th▲ up 2 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 1.27 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Loss 1.18 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 43%
- 8th 31%
- 9th 2%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Juan SC | 2.63 (+1.33) | 1st (2.42) | 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | MVLA | 2.38 (+1.08) | 2nd (2.30) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Force | 2.38 (+1.08) | 3rd (2.08) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 1.78 (+0.48) | 4th (1.55) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 5 | Marin FC | 1.44 (+0.14) | 5th (1.55) | A point next game |
| 6 | Placer United | 1.40 (+0.10) | 6th (1.55) | A point next game |
| 7 | Davis Legacy | 1.33 (+0.03) | 8th (1.10) | A point next game |
How the results connect
68 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Mustang SC to Bay Area Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.35 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27 01:00 PM no score posted |
Stanislaus Surf 9th · 1-1-7 · GD -14 |
Home Provident Field @ MSC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.96 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 4 TBD no score posted |
San Juan SC 1st · 7-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.48 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
Bay Area Surf 4th · 5-1-3 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.08 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Marin FC 5th · 4-1-4 · GD +4 |
Home Provident Field @ MSC |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.10 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
MVLA 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–2 | 0.51 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Placer United 6th · 4-2-4 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.93 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Force 3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.60 | 1.19 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.60 | 1.21 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Juan SC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 5 | +21 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWW | -0.25 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 at Bay Area Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MVLA | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 19 | 2.38 | WLWWW | -0.31 | -0.08 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Force | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 | 2.38 | LWWWW | +0.34 | -0.40 | 98% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at MVLA · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 19 | +0 | 16 | 1.78 | WLLWL | -0.02 | +0.09 | 33% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Marin FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 | 1.44 | WWWLL | +0.28 | -0.20 | 31% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Placer United | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 14 | 1.40 | DLWWL | -0.26 | +0.16 | 35% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Davis Legacy | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 12 | 1.33 | LLLWW | -0.25 | +0.23 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Mustang SC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 | 1.30 | LLWWW | -0.39 | +0.35 | 2% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Bay Area Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Stanislaus Surf | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 4 | 0.44 | DLLLL | -0.01 | +0.18 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Pleasanton RAGE | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 47 | -41 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.31 | +0.34 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Nov 21 vs Force · Sun Nov 22 at Davis Legacy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.