Force

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Foothill College, Top Hill Soccer Field ↗ far trip

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.2 against · 0.75 expected points)

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 1–0 vs MVLA (W)

Common opponents: Placer United — we 0–0; they 2–1, 1–0. Marin FC — we 3–2; they 2–1. Mustang SC — we 0–3; they 0–0. Stanislaus Surf — we 5–1; they 5–1.

• Respect their attack
  MVLA score 3.4/game — well above the league's 1.9.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Hard to break down
  MVLA concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

  Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Placer United, 0–3 at Mustang SC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 18%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  MVLA have won 3 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:00 PM at Foothill College.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  MVLA sit 2nd on 2.38 PPG; we are on 2.38.

  A point moves us above MVLA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Force – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st 5%
2. 2nd 20%
3. 3rd 67%
4. 4th 7%
5. 5th 1%
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th
8. 8th <1%
9. 9th
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.74 PPG if we win out).