Bay Area Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU18/19 · 10 teams · Bay Area Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:45 PM
Willow Glen High School, Football Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.0 against · 0.56 expected points)
| Season so far | Bay Area Surf | MVLA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-3 | 6-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.78 | 2.38 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 3.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L W | W W W L W |
| Biggest win | 5–2 at Davis Legacy | 9–0 vs Pleasanton RAGE |
| Worst loss | 0–7 at San Juan SC | 0–1 at Force |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.02 | +1.75 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.02 | -0.31 |
Common opponents: Stanislaus Surf — we 3–1; they 5–1. Pleasanton RAGE — we 4–3; they 9–0. Placer United — we 1–0; they 2–1, 1–0. Marin FC — we 1–1; they 2–1. Mustang SC — we 3–1; they 0–0. Force — we 0–1, 2–3; they 0–1. Davis Legacy — we 5–2; they 8–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
MVLA score 3.4/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
MVLA concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 at San Juan SC, 0–1 at Force.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
MVLA have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bay Area Surf – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.60 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.90 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.70 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.60 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 29%
- 5th 32%
- 6th 25%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 3%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Juan SC | 2.63 (+0.85) | 1st (2.42) | 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | MVLA | 2.38 (+0.60) | 2nd (2.30) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | Force | 2.38 (+0.60) | 3rd (2.08) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
How the results connect
70 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Bay Area Surf to MVLA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.09 · 6th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 05:45 PM |
MVLA 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +21 |
Home Willow Glen High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 1.66 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
Mustang SC 8th · 4-1-5 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 1.66 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 TBD |
San Juan SC 1st · 7-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.53 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
MVLA 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Stanislaus Surf 9th · 1-1-7 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 04:45 PM |
Placer United 6th · 4-2-4 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–2 | 1.84 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–2 | 1.84 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Marin FC 5th · 4-1-4 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Pleasanton RAGE 10th · 0-0-10 · GD -41 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
4–1 | 2.68 | 1.55 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Juan SC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 5 | +21 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWW | -0.25 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 at Bay Area Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MVLA | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 19 | 2.38 | WLWWW | -0.31 | -0.08 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Force | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 | 2.38 | LWWWW | +0.34 | -0.40 | 98% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at MVLA · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 19 | +0 | 16 | 1.78 | WLLWL | -0.02 | +0.09 | 33% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Marin FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 | 1.44 | WWWLL | +0.28 | -0.20 | 32% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Placer United | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 14 | 1.40 | DLWWL | -0.26 | +0.16 | 35% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Davis Legacy | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 12 | 1.33 | LLLWW | -0.25 | +0.23 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Mustang SC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 | 1.30 | LLWWW | -0.39 | +0.35 | 2% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Bay Area Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Stanislaus Surf | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 4 | 0.44 | DLLLL | -0.01 | +0.18 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Pleasanton RAGE | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 47 | -41 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.31 | +0.34 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Nov 21 vs Force · Sun Nov 22 at Davis Legacy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.