TableChase Clubs

MVLA

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU18/19 · 10 teams · MVLA (all teams)

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2nd
6-1-1 record · 8 played
2.38 points per game
+21 goal diff · 27–6
WLWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9
-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:45 PM

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MVLA
2nd · 2.38 PPG
at
Bay Area Surf
4th · 1.78 PPG

Willow Glen High School, Football Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.3 against · 2.29 expected points)

Season so farMVLABay Area Surf
Position2nd4th
Record (W-D-L)6-1-15-1-3
Points per game2.381.78
Goals for / game3.42.1
Goals against / game0.82.1
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)W W W L WL W L L W
Biggest win9–0 vs Pleasanton RAGE5–2 at Davis Legacy
Worst loss0–1 at Force0–7 at San Juan SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.75-0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.31-0.02

Common opponents: Mustang SC — we 0–0; they 3–1. Stanislaus Surf — we 5–1; they 3–1. Davis Legacy — we 8–2; they 5–2. Marin FC — we 2–1; they 1–1. Force — we 0–1; they 0–1, 2–3. Placer United — we 2–1, 1–0; they 1–0. Pleasanton RAGE — we 9–0; they 4–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Mustang SC, 0–1 at Force.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:45 PM at Willow Glen High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Bay Area Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MVLA – Bay Area Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.44 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.44 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.22 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.11 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

31% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.9 average finish
  1. 1st 31%
  2. 2nd 51%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.74 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Juan SC 2.63 (+0.25) 1st (2.42) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection

How the results connect

70 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link MVLA to Bay Area Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

49 favour us
9 even
12 favour them
+2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 2–1 0–1 1–0 3–2 2–1 1–1 5–1 1–3 0–0 1–3 8–2 2–5 9–0 3–4 2–1 3–2 MVLA 2nd Placer United 6th Force 3rd Marin FC 5th Stanislaus Surf 9th Mustang SC 8th Davis Legacy 7th Pleasanton RAGE 10th Bay Area Surf 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 7th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:45 PM		 Bay Area Surf
4th · 5-1-3 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Willow Glen High School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–1 2.29 2.37 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Marin FC
5th · 4-1-4 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Dominican University		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–1 1.92 2.32 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 Force
3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
Foothill College		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.05 2.30 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 San Juan SC
1st · 7-0-1 · GD +21		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.18 2.20 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Mustang SC
8th · 4-1-5 · GD -3		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 2–0 2.34 2.21 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Bay Area Surf
4th · 5-1-3 · GD +0		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.50 2.23 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 San Juan SC
1st · 7-0-1 · GD +21		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.45 2.18 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Pleasanton RAGE
10th · 0-0-10 · GD -41		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 5–0 2.95 2.23 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 Davis Legacy
7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.68 2.26 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 Davis Legacy
7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.68 2.28 Bank it
Sun May 9
09:00 AM		 Stanislaus Surf
9th · 1-1-7 · GD -14		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–0 2.66 2.30 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Juan SC 8701 265+21 212.63 WWWWW -0.25 -0.10 100% 1.4
2 MVLA 8611 276+21 192.38 WLWWW -0.31 -0.08 100% 1.9
3 Force 8611 159+6 192.38 LWWWW +0.34 -0.40 98% 2.8
4 Bay Area Surf 9513 1919+0 161.78 WLLWL -0.02 +0.09 33% 5.1
5 Marin FC 9414 1511+4 131.44 WWWLL +0.28 -0.20 33% 5.1
6 Placer United 10424 2010+10 141.40 DLWWL -0.26 +0.16 34% 5.1
7 Davis Legacy 9405 1923-4 121.33 LLLWW -0.25 +0.23 0% 7.5
8 Mustang SC 10415 1518-3 131.30 LLWWW -0.39 +0.35 2% 7.0
9 Stanislaus Surf 9117 1024-14 40.44 DLLLL -0.01 +0.18 0% 8.9
10 Pleasanton RAGE 100010 647-41 00.00 LLLLL +0.31 +0.34 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.