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Pleasanton RAGE

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU18/19 · 10 teams · Pleasanton Rage (all teams)

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10th
0-0-10 record · 10 played
0.00 points per game
-41 goal diff · 6–47
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.0
+0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:30 PM

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Pleasanton RAGE
10th · 0.00 PPG
at
Stanislaus Surf
9th · 0.44 PPG

River Islands Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.9 against · 0.50 expected points)

Season so farPleasanton RAGEStanislaus Surf
Position10th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-101-1-7
Points per game0.000.44
Goals for / game0.61.1
Goals against / game4.72.7
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless73
Form (recent first)L L L L LL L L L D
Biggest win—5–0 at Pleasanton RAGE
Worst loss0–9 at Placer United0–4 at San Juan SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.04-1.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.31-0.01

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–5 vs Stanislaus Surf (L)

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 0–5; they 0–1, 1–4. Bay Area Surf — we 3–4; they 1–3. San Juan SC — we 0–5; they 0–4. Placer United — we 0–9, 1–2; they 0–0. MVLA — we 0–9; they 1–5. Mustang SC — we 0–2, 2–4; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 7 time(s): 0–5 vs Davis Legacy, 0–2 vs Marin FC, 0–5 vs San Juan SC, 0–5 vs Stanislaus Surf, 0–9 at Placer United, 0–9 at MVLA, 0–2 at Mustang SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Stanislaus Surf have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:30 PM at River Islands Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Stanislaus Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pleasanton RAGE – Stanislaus Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Win
0.27 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Draw
0.09 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 100%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.42 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Juan SC 2.63 (+2.63) 1st (2.42) 50 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 MVLA 2.38 (+2.38) 2nd (2.30) 46 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Force 2.38 (+2.38) 3rd (2.08) 46 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Bay Area Surf 1.78 (+1.78) 4th (1.55) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Marin FC 1.44 (+1.44) 5th (1.55) 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Placer United 1.40 (+1.40) 6th (1.55) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Davis Legacy 1.33 (+1.33) 8th (1.10) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Mustang SC 1.30 (+1.30) 7th (1.21) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 Stanislaus Surf 0.44 (+0.44) 9th (0.63) 9 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection

How the results connect

71 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Pleasanton RAGE to Stanislaus Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

26 favour us
5 even
40 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–5 2–4 2–1 0–2 1–2 0–0 0–5 4–0 3–4 3–1 0–5 4–1 1–0 0–9 5–1 0–9 0–1 8–2 Pleasanton RAGE 10th Mustang SC 8th Placer United 6th San Juan SC 1st Bay Area Surf 4th Davis Legacy 7th MVLA 2nd Stanislaus Surf 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.34 · 2nd hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
9th · 1-1-7 · GD -14		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.50 0.05 Upside
Sat Nov 21
05:00 PM		 Force
3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.15 0.05 Upside
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 Davis Legacy
7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.20 0.07 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Davis Legacy
7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.33 0.08 Upside
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM		 Force
3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +6		 Away far trip
De Anza College · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.09 0.08 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Marin FC
5th · 4-1-4 · GD +4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.14 0.09 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 MVLA
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +21		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.03 0.08 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 San Juan SC
1st · 7-0-1 · GD +21		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 0.08 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Bay Area Surf
4th · 5-1-3 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.24 0.09 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Juan SC 8701 265+21 212.63 WWWWW -0.25 -0.10 100% 1.4
2 MVLA 8611 276+21 192.38 WLWWW -0.31 -0.08 100% 1.9
3 Force 8611 159+6 192.38 LWWWW +0.34 -0.40 98% 2.8
4 Bay Area Surf 9513 1919+0 161.78 WLLWL -0.02 +0.09 33% 5.1
5 Marin FC 9414 1511+4 131.44 WWWLL +0.28 -0.20 32% 5.2
6 Placer United 10424 2010+10 141.40 DLWWL -0.26 +0.16 35% 5.1
7 Davis Legacy 9405 1923-4 121.33 LLLWW -0.25 +0.23 0% 7.5
8 Mustang SC 10415 1518-3 131.30 LLWWW -0.39 +0.35 2% 7.0
9 Stanislaus Surf 9117 1024-14 40.44 DLLLL -0.01 +0.18 0% 9.0
10 Pleasanton RAGE 100010 647-41 00.00 LLLLL +0.31 +0.34 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.