San Juan SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU18/19 · 10 teams · San Juan Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.

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1st

7-0-1 record · 8 played

2.63 points per game

+21 goal diff · 26–5

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5

-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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San Juan SC
1st · 2.63 PPG

Davis Legacy
7th · 1.33 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗

81% 11% 8%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.5 for, 1.2 against · 2.53 expected points)

Season so far	San Juan SC	Davis Legacy
Position	1st	7th
Record (W-D-L)	7-0-1	4-0-5
Points per game	2.63	1.33
Goals for / game	3.3	2.1
Goals against / game	0.6	2.6
Clean sheets	5	3
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W W L L L
Biggest win	7–0 vs Bay Area Surf	5–0 at Pleasanton RAGE
Worst loss	1–2 vs Force	2–8 vs MVLA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.79	-0.49
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.25	-0.25

Common opponents: Stanislaus Surf — we 4–0; they 1–0, 4–1. Placer United — we 3–2; they 1–4. Pleasanton RAGE — we 5–0; they 5–0. Bay Area Surf — we 7–0; they 2–5. Mustang SC — we 4–1; they 2–0. Marin FC — we 1–0, 1–0; they 1–2, 1–3.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Davis Legacy Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Davis Legacy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Juan SC – Davis Legacy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.44 PPG	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.33 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

63% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.5 average finish

1st 63%
2nd 29%
3rd 8%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

66 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link San Juan SC to Davis Legacy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

52 favour us

6 even

8 favour them

+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 8th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 4 TBD no score posted	Mustang SC 8th · 4-1-5 · GD -3	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–0	2.37	2.60	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM	Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4	Away Davis Legacy Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.53	2.59	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Bay Area Surf 4th · 5-1-3 · GD +0	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–1	2.33	2.57	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 TBD	MVLA 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +21	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.59	2.48	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM	Stanislaus Surf 9th · 1-1-7 · GD -14	Away far trip River Islands Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.67	2.50	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	4–1	2.70	2.51	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-5 · GD -4	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	4–1	2.70	2.53	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Force 3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +6	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	1–1	1.85	2.48	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	MVLA 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +21	Away	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–1	1.32	2.42	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	Pleasanton RAGE 10th · 0-0-10 · GD -41	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	6–0	2.98	2.45	Bank it
Sun May 9 TBD	Placer United 6th · 4-2-4 · GD +10	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	1–0	2.01	2.42	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

San Juan SC

+21

2.63

WWWWW

-0.25

-0.10

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Marin FC (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	7–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Placer United (6th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Force (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 at Bay Area Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Mustang SC (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Force (3rd)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–1	36%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–0	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MVLA

+21

2.38

WLWWW

-0.31

-0.08

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Placer United (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Placer United (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Force (3rd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Marin FC (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	8–2
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	5–1
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Force See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Force (3rd)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Mustang SC (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	5–0	98%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun May 9	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force

2.38

LWWWW

+0.34

-0.40

99%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mustang SC (8th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Marin FC (5th)	3–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	San Juan SC (1st)	2–1
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Placer United (6th)	0–0

Next: Sun Nov 8 at MVLA · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Placer United (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun May 9	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bay Area Surf

1.78

WLLWL

-0.02

+0.09

35%

5.1

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Force (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Force (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–7
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Mustang SC (8th)	3–1
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	4–3
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Placer United (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–2	56%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–2	56%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Marin FC (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun May 9	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	4–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

1.44

WWWLL

+0.28

-0.20

31%

5.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Force (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	2–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	MVLA (2nd)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mustang SC (8th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–0	62%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Placer United (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun May 2	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Force (3rd)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Placer United

+10

1.40

DLWWL

-0.26

+0.16

32%

5.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	9–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	4–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	2–1
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Force (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Force (3rd)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Marin FC (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Mustang SC (8th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun May 9	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–1	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

-4

1.33

LLLWW

-0.25

+0.23

7.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Marin FC (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	MVLA (2nd)	2–8
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 11 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Placer United (6th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	2–2	27%
·	Sun May 2	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun May 2	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun May 9	at	Mustang SC (8th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun May 9	at	Mustang SC (8th)	1–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mustang SC

-3

1.30

LLWWW

-0.39

+0.35

7.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	San Juan SC (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Force (3rd)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Placer United (6th)	1–2
D	Sat Aug 15	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–0

Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Bay Area Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Marin FC (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun May 2	at	Force (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanislaus Surf

-14

0.44

DLLLL

-0.01

+0.18

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Force (3rd)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Placer United (6th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	5–0
L	Sun Aug 23	at	MVLA (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 15	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–4

Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	at	Mustang SC (8th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (10th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Placer United (6th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Marin FC (5th)	0–2	17%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Marin FC (5th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Force (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sun May 9	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pleasanton RAGE

-41

0.00

LLLLL

+0.31

+0.34

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mustang SC (8th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Mustang SC (8th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Placer United (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	MVLA (2nd)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Placer United (6th)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	San Juan SC (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Bay Area Surf (4th)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Marin FC (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	0–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Nov 21 vs Force · Sun Nov 22 at Davis Legacy See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Force (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Davis Legacy (7th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Davis Legacy (7th)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Force (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Marin FC (5th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	MVLA (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun May 2	at	San Juan SC (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Bay Area Surf (4th)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.