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Sporting California USA NAVY

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU17 · 18 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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15th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-17 goal diff · 3–20
LLLWlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.7
-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Sporting California USA NAVY
15th · 0.75 PPG
at
Pateadores Blue
11th · 1.00 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Field B ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.2 against · 0.74 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USA NAVYPateadores Blue
Position15th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-31-2-2
Points per game0.751.00
Goals for / game0.80.6
Goals against / game5.01.6
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)W L L LD W L D L
Biggest win3–2 at Pateadores Gold1–0 at Beach Futbol Club Gold
Worst loss0–9 vs LAFC1–6 at Sporting California USA RED
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.29-0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.06-0.38

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Pateadores Blue average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 2 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–9 vs LAFC, 0–6 at Rebels SC, 0–3 at SDSC Surf Gold.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 18%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Portola Springs Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    SDSC Surf Gold sit 14th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above SDSC Surf Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA NAVY – Pateadores Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.60 PPG		 15th— holds 14th▲ up 1 17th▼ down 2
Win
1.20 PPG		 10th▲ up 5 11th▲ up 4 14th▲ up 1
Draw
0.80 PPG		 13th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 3 17th▼ down 2
Loss
0.60 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 17th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 8%
  16. 16th 15%
  17. 17th 27%
  18. 18th 40%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+2.25) 3rd (2.28) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 San Diego Surf White 3.00 (+2.25) 5th (2.08) 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 LAFC 2.50 (+1.75) 1st (2.54) 40 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 San Diego Surf Blue 2.40 (+1.65) 4th (2.27) 38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 SDSC Surf Blue 2.25 (+1.50) 2nd (2.28) 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
6 Rebels SC 2.00 (+1.25) 6th (1.88) 31 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.75 (+1.00) 7th (1.70) 27 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 CDA Slammers FC White 1.50 (+0.75) 8th (1.57) 23 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 1.20 (+0.45) 9th (1.49) Win next game
10 West Coast FC Navy 1.00 (+0.25) 10th (1.16) A point next game
11 Pateadores Blue 1.00 (+0.25) 12th (0.98) A point next game
12 Legends FC Black 1.00 (+0.25) 13th (0.89) A point next game
13 Pateadores Gold 0.75 (+0.00) 14th (0.85) Already ahead
14 SDSC Surf Gold 0.75 (+0.00) 17th (0.57) Already ahead

How the results connect

7 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA NAVY to Pateadores Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
5 favour them
-3.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 0–4 6–1 3–1 0–0 1–5 0–1 0–6 3–1 2–0 1–1 0–0 0–3 0–5 Sporting California… 15th Pateadores Gold 13th Rebels SC 6th SDSC Surf Gold 14th Sporting California… 1st LV Heat Surf 16th Beach Futbol Club G… 7th Eagles SC 18th Pateadores Blue 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 5th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Eagles SC
18th · 0-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.15 0.83 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Pateadores Blue
11th · 1-2-2 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Portola Springs Community Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–2 0.74 0.82 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf White
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8		 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.16 0.72 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.08 0.64 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.25 0.60 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Blue
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +14		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.06 0.54 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Legends FC Black
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -10		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.14 0.60 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Sporting California USA RED
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–5 0.09 0.56 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 West Coast FC Navy
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.37 0.54 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Legends FC Gold
17th · 0-1-1 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.80 0.56 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.22 0.54 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 LV Heat Surf
16th · 1-1-5 · GD -15		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–3 0.80 0.55 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Maroon
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.54 0.55 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting California USA RED 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -0.59 -0.00 78% 3.3
2 San Diego Surf White 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -0.84 +0.09 42% 4.7
3 LAFC 6501 242+22 152.50 WWWLW +0.18 -0.28 99% 1.6
4 San Diego Surf Blue 5401 183+15 122.40 WWWWL -0.23 -0.03 81% 3.3
5 SDSC Surf Blue 4301 184+14 92.25 WWLW +0.06 -0.20 81% 3.2
6 Rebels SC 5311 113+8 102.00 WWDWL -0.29 +0.08 15% 6.0
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4211 62+4 71.75 WDLW -0.12 -0.01 4% 7.2
8 CDA Slammers FC White 4202 75+2 61.50 WWLL +0.33 -0.13 1% 8.0
9 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 69-3 61.20 LLLWW +1.25 -0.54 0% 8.6
10 West Coast FC Navy 4112 77+0 41.00 WLDL -0.57 +0.19 0% 10.9
11 Pateadores Blue 5122 38-5 51.00 LDLWD -0.38 +0.18 0% 12.5
12 Legends FC Black 3102 212-10 31.00 LWL +1.07 -0.14 0% 13.5
13 Pateadores Gold 4103 613-7 30.75 LLLW -0.49 +0.19 0% 13.8
14 SDSC Surf Gold 4103 318-15 30.75 LLWL -0.44 +0.27 0% 16.5
15 Sporting California USA NAVY 4103 320-17 30.75 LLLW -0.06 +0.16 0% 16.7
16 LV Heat Surf 7115 1025-15 40.57 LLWDL -0.04 +0.11 0% 15.1
17 Legends FC Gold 2011 15-4 10.50 LD +0.90 -0.10 0% 11.6
18 Eagles SC 4013 19-8 10.25 DLLL +0.80 -0.17 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.