San Diego Surf Blue
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU17 · 18 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.2 for, 0.8 against · 2.62 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf Blue | Legends FC Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 17th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 0-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W W | D L |
| Biggest win | 11–1 vs LV Heat Surf | — |
| Worst loss | 0–1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 0–4 at SDSC Surf Blue |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.75 | -0.57 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.23 | +0.90 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Legends FC Gold average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 1 of 2.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
LAFC sit 3rd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.40.A win moves us above LAFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf Blue – Legends FC Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 10%
- 2nd 22%
- 3rd 26%
- 4th 22%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 2%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA RED | 3.00 (+0.60) | 3rd (2.28) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 2 | San Diego Surf White | 3.00 (+0.60) | 5th (2.08) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | LAFC | 2.50 (+0.10) | 1st (2.54) | Win next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf Blue to Legends FC Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 11th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Legends FC Gold 17th · 0-1-1 · GD -4 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.62 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Sporting California USA NAVY 15th · 1-0-3 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.89 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
Sporting California USA RED 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 2.36 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM |
Rebels SC 6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–1 | 1.87 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Pateadores Blue 11th · 1-2-2 · GD -5 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.45 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
CDA Slammers FC White 8th · 2-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–0 | 2.26 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
SDSC Surf Blue 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–2 | 1.30 | 2.23 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
SDSC Surf Gold 14th · 1-0-3 · GD -15 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
Pateadores Gold 13th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
4–0 | 2.79 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 01:00 PM |
San Diego Surf White 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 2.29 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
West Coast FC Navy 10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.33 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 01:00 PM |
Beach Futbol Club Gold 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
1–0 | 2.02 | 2.27 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA RED | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.59 | -0.00 | 78% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 8 at CDA Slammers FC White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | San Diego Surf White | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.84 | +0.09 | 42% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting California USA NAVY See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | LAFC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 2 | +22 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWLW | +0.18 | -0.28 | 99% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf White · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 15 at Pateadores Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | San Diego Surf Blue | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.23 | -0.03 | 81% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting California USA RED See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SDSC Surf Blue | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.06 | -0.20 | 81% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rebels SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | WWDWL | -0.29 | +0.08 | 15% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 8 vs Legends FC Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.12 | -0.01 | 4% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Gold · Sun Nov 1 at West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | CDA Slammers FC White | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.33 | -0.13 | 1% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +1.25 | -0.54 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pateadores Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | West Coast FC Navy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | -0.57 | +0.19 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 8 at LAFC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pateadores Blue | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 5 | 1.00 | LDLWD | -0.38 | +0.18 | 0% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Legends FC Black | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +1.07 | -0.14 | 0% | 13.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 11 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Pateadores Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.49 | +0.19 | 0% | 13.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 1 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | SDSC Surf Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | -0.44 | +0.27 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.06 | +0.16 | 0% | 16.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs San Diego Surf White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | LV Heat Surf | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWDL | -0.04 | +0.11 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 22 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Legends FC Gold | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.90 | -0.10 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 11 at SDSC Surf Gold · Sat Oct 17 vs San Diego Surf White See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Eagles SC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | 0.25 | DLLL | +0.80 | -0.17 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.