LAFC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU17 · 18 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:45 PM
Oak Park High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.0 against · 2.23 expected points)
| Season so far | LAFC | San Diego Surf White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-1 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W W | W W W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 at Sporting California USA NAVY | 4–0 vs Eagles SC |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs San Diego Surf Blue | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.34 | +1.12 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.18 | -0.84 |
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
San Diego Surf White score 3.3/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
San Diego Surf White concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs San Diego Surf Blue.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 17% / loss 14%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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They arrive in form
San Diego Surf White have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the San Diego Surf White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC – San Diego Surf White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.57 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.57 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 2.29 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.14 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 61%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA RED | 3.00 (+0.50) | 3rd (2.28) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 2 | San Diego Surf White | 3.00 (+0.50) | 5th (2.08) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
How the results connect
8 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link LAFC to San Diego Surf White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.28 · 17th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:45 PM |
San Diego Surf White 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8 |
Home Oak Park High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.23 | 2.46 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
West Coast FC Navy 10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Oak Park High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.71 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 08:30 AM |
Pateadores Gold 13th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Arroyo Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Pateadores Blue 11th · 1-2-2 · GD -5 |
Home Oak Park High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.75 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Sporting California USA RED 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.74 | 2.48 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
LV Heat Surf 16th · 1-1-5 · GD -15 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.94 | 2.51 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Legends FC Black 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.86 | 2.54 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
Eagles SC 18th · 0-1-3 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.76 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Legends FC Gold 17th · 0-1-1 · GD -4 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.77 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Maroon 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club Gold 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
1–0 | 2.09 | 2.54 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA RED | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.59 | -0.00 | 79% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 8 at CDA Slammers FC White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | San Diego Surf White | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.84 | +0.09 | 43% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting California USA NAVY See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | LAFC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 2 | +22 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWLW | +0.18 | -0.28 | 99% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf White · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 15 at Pateadores Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | San Diego Surf Blue | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.23 | -0.03 | 78% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting California USA RED See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SDSC Surf Blue | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.06 | -0.20 | 82% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rebels SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | WWDWL | -0.29 | +0.08 | 13% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 8 vs Legends FC Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.12 | -0.01 | 4% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Gold · Sun Nov 1 at West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | CDA Slammers FC White | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.33 | -0.13 | 2% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +1.25 | -0.54 | 1% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pateadores Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | West Coast FC Navy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | -0.57 | +0.19 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 8 at LAFC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pateadores Blue | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 5 | 1.00 | LDLWD | -0.38 | +0.18 | 0% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Legends FC Black | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +1.07 | -0.14 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 11 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Pateadores Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.49 | +0.19 | 0% | 13.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 1 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | SDSC Surf Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | -0.44 | +0.27 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.06 | +0.16 | 0% | 16.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs San Diego Surf White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | LV Heat Surf | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWDL | -0.04 | +0.11 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 22 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Legends FC Gold | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.90 | -0.10 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 11 at SDSC Surf Gold · Sat Oct 17 vs San Diego Surf White See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Eagles SC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | 0.25 | DLLL | +0.80 | -0.17 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.