TableChase Clubs

SDSC Surf Blue

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU17 · 18 teams · SDSC Surf (all teams)

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5th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+14 goal diff · 18–4
WWLWlast 4
82% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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SDSC Surf Blue
5th · 2.25 PPG
at
LV Heat Surf
16th · 0.57 PPG

Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 12 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.3 for, 1.2 against · 2.82 expected points)

Season so farSDSC Surf BlueLV Heat Surf
Position5th16th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-11-1-5
Points per game2.250.57
Goals for / game4.51.4
Goals against / game1.03.6
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L W WL D W L L
Biggest win8–0 vs Legends FC Black5–0 vs SDSC Surf Gold
Worst loss1–3 at LAFC1–11 at San Diego Surf Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.04-1.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06-0.04

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LV Heat Surf concede 3.6/game; worst result 1–11 at San Diego Surf Blue.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 92% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Heritage Park Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf Blue sit 4th on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A win moves us above San Diego Surf Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SDSC Surf Blue – LV Heat Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 4th▲ up 1
Win
2.40 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 4th▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.80 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

13% finish 1st
82% top 4
18% below the top 4
3.2 average finish
  1. 1st 13%
  2. 2nd 24%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+0.75) 3rd (2.28) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2 San Diego Surf White 3.00 (+0.75) 5th (2.08) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 LAFC 2.50 (+0.25) 1st (2.54) 34 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 San Diego Surf Blue 2.40 (+0.15) 4th (2.27) Win next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link SDSC Surf Blue to LV Heat Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
0 favour them
+7.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 8–0 0–5 2–0 3–1 2–0 4–1 5–1 1–2 4–1 0–1 11–1 8–0 1–0 0–0 1–4 1–0 SDSC Surf Blue 5th LAFC 3rd CDA Slammers FC Mar… 9th Legends FC Black 12th SDSC Surf Gold 14th Rebels SC 6th CDA Slammers FC Whi… 8th San Diego Surf White 2nd San Diego Surf Blue 4th Pateadores Blue 11th LV Heat Surf 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.20 · 16th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 LV Heat Surf
16th · 1-1-5 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 5–1 2.82 2.36 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Sporting California USA RED
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–1 1.62 2.24 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Redondo Union High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–1 1.81 2.18 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf White
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–1 1.61 2.11 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Eagles SC
18th · 0-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–0 2.80 2.18 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
10:00 AM		 Sporting California USA NAVY
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -17		 Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–0 2.92 2.26 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.07 2.24 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
02:15 PM		 Pateadores Blue
11th · 1-2-2 · GD -5		 Home
Westview High School · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.67 2.28 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
09:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–1 1.49 2.22 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Pateadores Gold
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -7		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 4–1 2.72 2.25 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 SDSC Surf Gold
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -15		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 6–0 2.95 2.30 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 West Coast FC Navy
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 3–1 2.38 2.30 Bank it
Sun May 9
09:00 AM		 Rebels SC
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
Maranatha Christian School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.89 2.28 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting California USA RED 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -0.59 -0.00 78% 3.3
2 San Diego Surf White 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -0.84 +0.09 43% 4.7
3 LAFC 6501 242+22 152.50 WWWLW +0.18 -0.28 99% 1.6
4 San Diego Surf Blue 5401 183+15 122.40 WWWWL -0.23 -0.03 79% 3.4
5 SDSC Surf Blue 4301 184+14 92.25 WWLW +0.06 -0.20 82% 3.2
6 Rebels SC 5311 113+8 102.00 WWDWL -0.29 +0.08 13% 6.0
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4211 62+4 71.75 WDLW -0.12 -0.01 4% 7.2
8 CDA Slammers FC White 4202 75+2 61.50 WWLL +0.33 -0.13 2% 8.1
9 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 69-3 61.20 LLLWW +1.25 -0.54 0% 8.7
10 West Coast FC Navy 4112 77+0 41.00 WLDL -0.57 +0.19 0% 11.0
11 Pateadores Blue 5122 38-5 51.00 LDLWD -0.38 +0.18 0% 12.4
12 Legends FC Black 3102 212-10 31.00 LWL +1.07 -0.14 0% 13.5
13 Pateadores Gold 4103 613-7 30.75 LLLW -0.49 +0.19 0% 13.8
14 SDSC Surf Gold 4103 318-15 30.75 LLWL -0.44 +0.27 0% 16.6
15 Sporting California USA NAVY 4103 320-17 30.75 LLLW -0.06 +0.16 0% 16.6
16 LV Heat Surf 7115 1025-15 40.57 LLWDL -0.04 +0.11 0% 15.1
17 Legends FC Gold 2011 15-4 10.50 LD +0.90 -0.10 0% 11.6
18 Eagles SC 4013 19-8 10.25 DLLL +0.80 -0.17 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.