Rebels SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU17 · 18 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.8 against · 0.98 expected points)
| Season so far | Rebels SC | Sporting California USA RED |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 4.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D W W | W W W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Sporting California USA NAVY | 6–1 vs Pateadores Blue |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs LAFC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.86 | +1.64 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.29 | -0.59 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Sporting California USA RED score 4.0/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Sporting California USA RED concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold, 0–2 vs LAFC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Sporting California USA RED have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at San Bernardino Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA RED game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Sporting California USA RED) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.83 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 19%
- 6th 30%
- 7th 21%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 4%
- 10th 1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th
- 13th <1%
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA RED | 3.00 (+1.00) | 3rd (2.28) | 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 2 | San Diego Surf White | 3.00 (+1.00) | 5th (2.08) | 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 3 | LAFC | 2.50 (+0.50) | 1st (2.54) | 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 4 | San Diego Surf Blue | 2.40 (+0.40) | 4th (2.27) | 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 5 | SDSC Surf Blue | 2.25 (+0.25) | 2nd (2.28) | 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
How the results connect
6 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Sporting California USA RED through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.08 · 8th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Sporting California USA RED 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.98 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Maroon 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 02:30 PM |
Legends FC Gold 17th · 0-1-1 · GD -4 |
Home El Cajon Valley High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–0 | 2.28 | 1.88 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 07:00 PM |
Legends FC Black 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM |
San Diego Surf Blue 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–1 | 0.90 | 1.84 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:00 AM |
San Diego Surf White 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.46 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 05:15 PM |
SDSC Surf Gold 14th · 1-0-3 · GD -15 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.77 | 1.88 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Pateadores Gold 13th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 1.92 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC White 8th · 2-0-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 01:45 PM |
West Coast FC Navy 10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Southwestern College · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 10:15 AM |
Pateadores Blue 11th · 1-2-2 · GD -5 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
1–0 | 2.28 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 09:00 AM |
SDSC Surf Blue 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 1.88 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA RED | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.59 | -0.00 | 79% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 8 at CDA Slammers FC White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | San Diego Surf White | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.84 | +0.09 | 43% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting California USA NAVY See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | LAFC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 2 | +22 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWLW | +0.18 | -0.28 | 99% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf White · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 15 at Pateadores Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | San Diego Surf Blue | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.23 | -0.03 | 78% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting California USA RED See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SDSC Surf Blue | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.06 | -0.20 | 82% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rebels SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | WWDWL | -0.29 | +0.08 | 13% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 8 vs Legends FC Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.12 | -0.01 | 4% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Gold · Sun Nov 1 at West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | CDA Slammers FC White | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.33 | -0.13 | 2% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +1.25 | -0.54 | 1% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pateadores Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | West Coast FC Navy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | -0.57 | +0.19 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 8 at LAFC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pateadores Blue | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 5 | 1.00 | LDLWD | -0.38 | +0.18 | 0% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Legends FC Black | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +1.07 | -0.14 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 11 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Pateadores Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.49 | +0.19 | 0% | 13.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 1 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | SDSC Surf Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | -0.44 | +0.27 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.06 | +0.16 | 0% | 16.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs San Diego Surf White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | LV Heat Surf | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWDL | -0.04 | +0.11 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 22 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Legends FC Gold | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.90 | -0.10 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 11 at SDSC Surf Gold · Sat Oct 17 vs San Diego Surf White See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Eagles SC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | 0.25 | DLLL | +0.80 | -0.17 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.