LV Heat Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU17 · 18 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Heritage Park Sports Complex, Field 12 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.2 for, 5.3 against · 0.14 expected points)
| Season so far | LV Heat Surf | SDSC Surf Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-5 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.57 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 4.5 |
| Goals against / game | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W L L | W L W W |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs SDSC Surf Gold | 8–0 vs Legends FC Black |
| Worst loss | 1–11 at San Diego Surf Blue | 1–3 at LAFC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.47 | +2.04 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.04 | +0.06 |
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
SDSC Surf Blue score 4.5/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Pateadores Blue.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 3%; a draw (5%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
What a win does
Sporting California USA NAVY sit 15th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.57.A point moves us above Sporting California USA NAVY on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SDSC Surf Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – SDSC Surf Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
17th▼ down 1 | 17th▼ down 1 | 18th▼ down 2 |
| Win 0.88 PPG |
13th▲ up 3 | 12th▲ up 4 | 16th— holds |
| Draw 0.63 PPG |
16th— holds | 13th▲ up 3 | 17th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
17th▼ down 1 | 17th▼ down 1 | 18th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we fall to at least 17th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 2%
- 12th 6%
- 13th 10%
- 14th 16%
- 15th 20%
- 16th 21%
- 17th 15%
- 18th 10%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA RED | 3.00 (+2.43) | 3rd (2.28) | 47 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | San Diego Surf White | 3.00 (+2.43) | 5th (2.08) | 47 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | LAFC | 2.50 (+1.93) | 1st (2.54) | 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | San Diego Surf Blue | 2.40 (+1.83) | 4th (2.27) | 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | SDSC Surf Blue | 2.25 (+1.68) | 2nd (2.28) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Rebels SC | 2.00 (+1.43) | 6th (1.88) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 7 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 1.75 (+1.18) | 7th (1.70) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 8 | CDA Slammers FC White | 1.50 (+0.93) | 8th (1.57) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 9 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 1.20 (+0.63) | 9th (1.49) | 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 10 | West Coast FC Navy | 1.00 (+0.43) | 10th (1.16) | 13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 11 | Pateadores Blue | 1.00 (+0.43) | 12th (0.98) | 13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 12 | Legends FC Black | 1.00 (+0.43) | 13th (0.89) | 13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 13 | Pateadores Gold | 0.75 (+0.18) | 14th (0.85) | A point next game |
| 14 | SDSC Surf Gold | 0.75 (+0.18) | 17th (0.57) | A point next game |
| 15 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 0.75 (+0.18) | 18th (0.55) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to SDSC Surf Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.11 · 6th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
SDSC Surf Blue 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +14 |
Home Heritage Park Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.14 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
West Coast FC Navy 10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Heritage Park Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club Gold 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Maroon 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Eagles SC 18th · 0-1-3 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 0.64 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
LAFC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +22 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Sporting California USA RED 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.19 | 0.57 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Legends FC Gold 17th · 0-1-1 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.91 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
Legends FC Black 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.28 | 0.64 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Sporting California USA NAVY 15th · 1-0-3 · GD -17 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
3–1 | 2.05 | 0.72 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting California USA RED | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.59 | -0.00 | 77% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 8 at CDA Slammers FC White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | San Diego Surf White | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.84 | +0.09 | 45% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at LAFC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting California USA NAVY See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | LAFC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 2 | +22 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWLW | +0.18 | -0.28 | 99% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Diego Surf White · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 15 at Pateadores Gold See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | San Diego Surf Blue | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.23 | -0.03 | 77% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting California USA RED See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | SDSC Surf Blue | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.06 | -0.20 | 83% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LV Heat Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 8 at Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Rebels SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.00 | WWDWL | -0.29 | +0.08 | 13% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting California USA RED · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 8 vs Legends FC Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Beach Futbol Club Gold | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.12 | -0.01 | 4% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Gold · Sun Nov 1 at West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 8 vs SDSC Surf Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | CDA Slammers FC White | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | +0.33 | -0.13 | 2% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Eagles SC · Sun Nov 1 at Legends FC Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | CDA Slammers FC Maroon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +1.25 | -0.54 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pateadores Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | West Coast FC Navy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | -0.57 | +0.19 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 8 at LAFC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Pateadores Blue | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 5 | 1.00 | LDLWD | -0.38 | +0.18 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Nov 1 vs Pateadores Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Legends FC Black | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +1.07 | -0.14 | 0% | 13.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 11 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast FC Navy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Pateadores Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.49 | +0.19 | 0% | 13.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC Maroon · Sun Nov 1 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | SDSC Surf Gold | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | -0.44 | +0.27 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Legends FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Beach Futbol Club Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Sporting California USA NAVY | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.06 | +0.16 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Eagles SC · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs San Diego Surf White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | LV Heat Surf | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWDL | -0.04 | +0.11 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SDSC Surf Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs West Coast FC Navy · Sun Nov 22 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | Legends FC Gold | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.90 | -0.10 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Legends FC Black · Sun Oct 11 at SDSC Surf Gold · Sat Oct 17 vs San Diego Surf White See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Eagles SC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | 0.25 | DLLL | +0.80 | -0.17 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Sporting California USA NAVY · Sun Oct 25 vs CDA Slammers FC White · Sun Nov 1 at SDSC Surf Gold See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.