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CDA Slammers FC Maroon

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU17 · 18 teams · CDA Slammers FC (all teams)

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9th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-3 goal diff · 6–9
LLLWWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.6
+1.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:15 PM

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CDA Slammers FC Maroon
9th · 1.20 PPG
at
Pateadores Gold
13th · 0.75 PPG

Arroyo Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.5 against · 1.78 expected points)

Season so farCDA Slammers FC MaroonPateadores Gold
Position9th13th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-31-0-3
Points per game1.200.75
Goals for / game1.21.5
Goals against / game1.83.3
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W L L LW L L L
Biggest win3–0 at West Coast FC Navy3–1 vs LV Heat Surf
Worst loss1–5 at SDSC Surf Blue1–5 at Beach Futbol Club Gold
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.05-1.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.25-0.49

Common opponents: Sporting California USA RED — we 0–2; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Pateadores Gold concede 3.2/game; worst result 1–5 at Beach Futbol Club Gold.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Sporting California USA RED.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 21% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:15 PM at Arroyo Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    CDA Slammers FC White sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.20.

    A win moves us above CDA Slammers FC White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CDA Slammers FC Maroon – Pateadores Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.50 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
1.50 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Draw
1.17 PPG		 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2 14th▼ down 5
Loss
1.00 PPG		 11th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 3 15th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 24%
  9. 9th 31%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 6%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+1.80) 3rd (2.28) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 San Diego Surf White 3.00 (+1.80) 5th (2.08) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 LAFC 2.50 (+1.30) 1st (2.54) 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 San Diego Surf Blue 2.40 (+1.20) 4th (2.27) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 SDSC Surf Blue 2.25 (+1.05) 2nd (2.28) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 Rebels SC 2.00 (+0.80) 6th (1.88) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.75 (+0.55) 7th (1.70) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
8 CDA Slammers FC White 1.50 (+0.30) 8th (1.57) Win next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link CDA Slammers FC Maroon to Pateadores Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 4–0 1–2 4–1 1–3 1–0 11–1 CDA Slammers FC Mar… 9th Sporting California… 1st San Diego Surf White 2nd San Diego Surf Blue 4th LV Heat Surf 16th Pateadores Gold 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.54 · 18th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:15 PM		 Pateadores Gold
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Arroyo Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.78 1.30 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Rebels SC
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–1 0.96 1.25 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Pateadores Blue
11th · 1-2-2 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Great Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–0 1.63 1.30 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 SDSC Surf Gold
14th · 1-0-3 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Ryan Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.26 1.40 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.30 1.39 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 LV Heat Surf
16th · 1-1-5 · GD -15		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.95 1.44 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM		 Legends FC Gold
17th · 0-1-1 · GD -4		 Away
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.56 1.45 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.13 1.43 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Eagles SC
18th · 0-1-3 · GD -8		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 1–0 2.06 1.47 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Legends FC Black
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -10		 Away
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.94 1.50 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 LAFC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +22		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.40 1.44 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Sporting California USA NAVY
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -17		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 2–1 2.30 1.49 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting California USA RED 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -0.59 -0.00 77% 3.3
2 San Diego Surf White 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -0.84 +0.09 45% 4.6
3 LAFC 6501 242+22 152.50 WWWLW +0.18 -0.28 99% 1.6
4 San Diego Surf Blue 5401 183+15 122.40 WWWWL -0.23 -0.03 77% 3.4
5 SDSC Surf Blue 4301 184+14 92.25 WWLW +0.06 -0.20 83% 3.1
6 Rebels SC 5311 113+8 102.00 WWDWL -0.29 +0.08 13% 6.1
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4211 62+4 71.75 WDLW -0.12 -0.01 4% 7.2
8 CDA Slammers FC White 4202 75+2 61.50 WWLL +0.33 -0.13 2% 8.0
9 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5203 69-3 61.20 LLLWW +1.25 -0.54 0% 8.6
10 West Coast FC Navy 4112 77+0 41.00 WLDL -0.57 +0.19 0% 10.9
11 Pateadores Blue 5122 38-5 51.00 LDLWD -0.38 +0.18 0% 12.6
12 Legends FC Black 3102 212-10 31.00 LWL +1.07 -0.14 0% 13.5
13 Pateadores Gold 4103 613-7 30.75 LLLW -0.49 +0.19 0% 13.8
14 SDSC Surf Gold 4103 318-15 30.75 LLWL -0.44 +0.27 0% 16.5
15 Sporting California USA NAVY 4103 320-17 30.75 LLLW -0.06 +0.16 0% 16.5
16 LV Heat Surf 7115 1025-15 40.57 LLWDL -0.04 +0.11 0% 15.1
17 Legends FC Gold 2011 15-4 10.50 LD +0.90 -0.10 0% 11.6
18 Eagles SC 4013 19-8 10.25 DLLL +0.80 -0.17 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.