Sporting California USA

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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11th

1-0-2 record · 3 played

1.00 points per game

-4 goal diff · 6–10

LLWlast 3

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.1

+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Sporting California USA
11th · 1.00 PPG

Empire Surf
3rd · 2.60 PPG

Galway Downs, Field 11 ↗ far trip

7% 87%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–5 (expected goals 2.0 for, 5.6 against · 0.27 expected points)

Season so far	Sporting California USA	Empire Surf
Position	11th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-2	4-1-0
Points per game	1.00	2.60
Goals for / game	2.0	5.6
Goals against / game	3.3	2.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W L L	W W D W W
Biggest win	3–2 vs Rebels SC Blue	9–1 at LV Heat Surf
Worst loss	1–4 at Legends FC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.50	+2.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.43	-0.40

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 1–4; they 4–3.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Empire Surf score 5.6/game — well above the league's 2.1.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Galway Downs.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Rebels SC Blue sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above Rebels SC Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Empire Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – Empire Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.75 PPG	14th▼ down 3	13th▼ down 2	15th▼ down 4
Win 1.50 PPG	9th▲ up 2	9th▲ up 2	9th▲ up 2
Draw 1.00 PPG	11th— holds	12th▼ down 1	14th▼ down 3
Loss 0.75 PPG	13th▼ down 2	13th▼ down 2	15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–5 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

10.1 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd <1%
4th 1%
5th 1%
6th 4%
7th 9%
8th 13%
9th 14%
10th 15%
11th 13%
12th 11%
13th 8%
14th 6%
15th 4%
16th 1%
17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	LA Breakers Red	3.00 (+2.00)	1st (2.75)	45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	LA Breakers White	3.00 (+2.00)	3rd (2.13)	45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3	Empire Surf	2.60 (+1.60)	2nd (2.31)	39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4	CDA Slammers FC Black	2.25 (+1.25)	5th (1.82)	33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
5	Legends FC	2.00 (+1.00)	4th (1.95)	29 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6	Legends FC - Del Mar	1.50 (+0.50)	6th (1.71)	Win next game
7	LAFC GOLD	1.50 (+0.50)	7th (1.65)	Win next game
8	Rebels SC White	1.50 (+0.50)	8th (1.28)	Win next game
9	Beach Futbol Club Black	1.20 (+0.20)	13th (1.07)	A point next game
10	Rebels SC Blue	1.00 (+0.00)	11th (1.17)	A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to Empire Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

5 favour them

-3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 12th hardest of 17

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 12:00 PM no score posted	Rebels SC White 8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0	Home San Bernardino Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.42	1.11	Upside
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	Empire Surf 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +18	Away far trip Galway Downs	●●●●● Very tough	7%	2–5	0.27	0.94	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	San Diego Surf 17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12	Home San Bernardino Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.35	1.17	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 TBD	CDA Slammers FC Black 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4	Away	●●●●● Very tough	20%	2–3	0.75	1.11	Upside
Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM	Pateadores 13th · 1-0-3 · GD -4	Away far trip Great Park	●●●●○ Tough	34%	2–2	1.22	1.12	Upside
Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM	West Coast FC White 14th · 1-0-3 · GD -6	Home San Bernardino Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.68	1.19	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 TBD	LA Breakers White 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +6	Home	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.84	1.15	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	LV Heat Surf 12th · 2-0-4 · GD -9	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–2	1.52	1.19	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	LAFC WHITE 16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	2–1	1.93	1.25	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Beach Futbol Club Black 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.84	1.29	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	LAFC GOLD 7th · 1-3-0 · GD +1	Away	●●●●● Very tough	23%	2–3	0.84	1.26	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	LA Breakers Red 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +26	Home	●●●●● Very tough	4%	1–4	0.17	1.19	Upside
Sat May 8 TBD	FC Long Beach 15th · 1-0-4 · GD -13	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	3–1	2.24	1.25	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

LA Breakers Red

+26

3.00

WWWWW

-0.74

+0.04

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	LAFC WHITE (16th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Pateadores (13th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	San Diego Surf (17th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Empire Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 21 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	4–2	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Rebels SC White (8th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Legends FC (5th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	LV Heat Surf (12th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Long Beach (15th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sporting California USA (11th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat May 8	vs	LAFC GOLD (7th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat May 15	vs	LA Breakers White (2nd)	2–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LA Breakers White

3.00

WWWW

-0.70

+0.13

78%

3.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Rebels SC White (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	West Coast FC White (14th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pateadores (13th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Empire Surf · Sun Nov 15 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Sporting California USA (11th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	LAFC WHITE (16th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	LAFC GOLD (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	LV Heat Surf (12th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat May 15	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sun May 16	vs	San Diego Surf (17th)	3–0	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Empire Surf

+18

2.60

WWDWW

-0.40

-0.02

96%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Legends FC (5th)	4–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	6–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	LAFC GOLD (7th)	4–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	LV Heat Surf (12th)	9–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	LAFC WHITE (16th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers Red · Sat Nov 7 at LA Breakers White See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting California USA (11th)	5–2	87%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	2–4	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	West Coast FC White (14th)	4–1	78%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Rebels SC White (8th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Pateadores (13th)	4–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	3–2	53%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Long Beach (15th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	4–2	73%
·	Sat May 1	vs	San Diego Surf (17th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat May 8	at	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CDA Slammers FC Black

2.25

WWWL

-0.00

-0.04

32%

5.4

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	LA Breakers Red (1st)	1–7
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	LV Heat Surf (12th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers White · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	LAFC GOLD (7th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting California USA (11th)	3–2	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Legends FC (5th)	2–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	LAFC WHITE (16th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	San Diego Surf (17th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Rebels SC White (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pateadores (13th)	3–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	West Coast FC White (14th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–4	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC

2.00

WDWWL

+0.48

-0.31

57%

4.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	LAFC GOLD (7th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting California USA (11th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC White See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pateadores (13th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Rebels SC White (8th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	San Diego Surf (17th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Long Beach (15th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	LV Heat Surf (12th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Pateadores (13th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	LAFC WHITE (16th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat May 8	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC - Del Mar

1.50

WLWL

-0.46

+0.11

20%

6.2

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Legends FC (5th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting California USA (11th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Long Beach (15th)	9–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at LAFC WHITE · Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC GOLD See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	LAFC WHITE (16th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LV Heat Surf (12th)	4–1	78%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	LAFC GOLD (7th)	2–2	56%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	LA Breakers White (2nd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	LA Breakers Red (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	San Diego Surf (17th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–3	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Rebels SC White (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 1	at	West Coast FC White (14th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat May 8	at	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	2–2	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LAFC GOLD

1.50

DDDW

+0.57

-0.25

14%

6.6

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pateadores (13th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	4–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Legends FC (5th)	3–3
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 at CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Oct 24 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	LAFC WHITE (16th)	3–1	70%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Diego Surf (17th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Rebels SC White (8th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	LV Heat Surf (12th)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	LA Breakers White (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Sporting California USA (11th)	3–2	61%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat May 8	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rebels SC White

1.50

WWLL

-0.80

+0.26

9.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	LV Heat Surf (12th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	LA Breakers White (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	LAFC WHITE (16th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 1 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Sporting California USA (11th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LAFC GOLD (7th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	LA Breakers Red (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 1	at	Pateadores (13th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 8	vs	San Diego Surf (17th)	2–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach Futbol Club Black

-7

1.20

LWLLW

+0.22

-0.08

12.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	San Diego Surf (17th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 3 at West Coast FC White · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC White See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	West Coast FC White (14th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pateadores (13th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Rebels SC White (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	LAFC WHITE (16th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LV Heat Surf (12th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Long Beach (15th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	LAFC GOLD (7th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	LA Breakers Red (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sporting California USA (11th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 1	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rebels SC Blue

-1

1.00

DWLL

-0.68

+0.20

10.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting California USA (11th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	LAFC GOLD (7th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC WHITE See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	LV Heat Surf (12th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	LAFC WHITE (16th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Pateadores (13th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Diego Surf (17th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Rebels SC White (8th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting California USA

-4

1.00

LLW

+0.43

-0.10

10.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Legends FC (5th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC White · Sat Oct 24 at Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Rebels SC White (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	2–5	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Diego Surf (17th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Pateadores (13th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	LA Breakers White (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	LV Heat Surf (12th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	LAFC WHITE (16th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	LAFC GOLD (7th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat May 1	vs	LA Breakers Red (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat May 8	vs	FC Long Beach (15th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LV Heat Surf

-9

1.00

LLLWW

-0.09

+0.10

12.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Rebels SC White (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	San Diego Surf (17th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Pateadores (13th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Beach Futbol Club Black See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	1–4	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	LAFC GOLD (7th)	2–3	24%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Sporting California USA (11th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	LAFC WHITE (16th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pateadores

-4

0.75

LLWL

+0.73

-0.26

10.3

L	Sat Oct 10	at	LAFC GOLD (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	LV Heat Surf (12th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	LA Breakers Red (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 18 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	at	LAFC WHITE (16th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Legends FC (5th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting California USA (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–4	14%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	1–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	San Diego Surf (17th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Rebels SC White (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 8	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	2–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Coast FC White

-6

0.75

WLLL

+1.00

-0.28

11.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Legends FC (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	LA Breakers White (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	LV Heat Surf (12th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Long Beach · Sun Nov 1 at LAFC GOLD See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Long Beach (15th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	LAFC GOLD (7th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LAFC WHITE (16th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Sporting California USA (11th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–4	11%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	San Diego Surf (17th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Rebels SC White (8th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat May 8	at	Pateadores (13th)	1–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Long Beach

-13

0.60

LLLWL

+0.32

-0.04

15.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	LA Breakers White (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Rebels SC White (8th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	1–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Coast FC White · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 14 vs San Diego Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West Coast FC White (14th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pateadores (13th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Diego Surf (17th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	LAFC WHITE (16th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Legends FC (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	LV Heat Surf (12th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	LAFC GOLD (7th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sporting California USA (11th)	1–3	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LAFC WHITE

-12

0.00

LLL

+1.65

-0.29

15.2

L	Sat Sep 26	at	LA Breakers Red (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Rebels SC White (8th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Oct 18 vs Pateadores · Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC GOLD See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	vs	Pateadores (13th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LAFC GOLD (7th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	West Coast FC White (14th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	LV Heat Surf (12th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sporting California USA (11th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	San Diego Surf (17th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Legends FC (5th)	1–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Diego Surf

-12

0.00

LLL

+0.26

+0.02

16.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Beach Futbol Club Black (9th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	LV Heat Surf (12th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	LA Breakers Red (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Nov 14 at FC Long Beach See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sporting California USA (11th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	LAFC GOLD (7th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Long Beach (15th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Legends FC (5th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	CDA Slammers FC Black (4th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	West Coast FC White (14th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Legends FC - Del Mar (6th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Rebels SC Blue (10th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	LAFC WHITE (16th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pateadores (13th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 1	at	Empire Surf (3rd)	1–6	1%
·	Sat May 8	at	Rebels SC White (8th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun May 16	at	LA Breakers White (2nd)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.