TableChase Clubs

LA Breakers Red

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 58 minutes ago. Next available update in 01:12.
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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+26 goal diff · 28–2
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1
-0.74 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM

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LA Breakers Red
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
Empire Surf
3rd · 2.60 PPG

Bell Gardens Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.4 for, 2.1 against · 2.38 expected points)

Season so farLA Breakers RedEmpire Surf
Position1st3rd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-04-1-0
Points per game3.002.60
Goals for / game5.65.6
Goals against / game0.42.0
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WW W D W W
Biggest win7–0 at San Diego Surf9–1 at LV Heat Surf
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.99+2.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.74-0.40

Common opponents: LAFC WHITE — we 7–0; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Empire Surf score 5.6/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 4–2.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Empire Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers Red – Empire Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.50 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

91% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.1 average finish
  1. 1st 91%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers Red to Empire Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–0 1–5 3–0 1–3 3–4 7–0 0–1 1–6 7–1 5–1 1–9 4–1 2–3 4–4 3–1 2–1 4–1 1–5 LA Breakers Red 1st LAFC WHITE 16th West Coast FC White 14th San Diego Surf 17th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 4th Pateadores 13th Legends FC 5th Beach Futbol Club B… 9th LV Heat Surf 12th LAFC GOLD 7th Empire Surf 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
03:00 PM
Empire Surf
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
4–2 2.38 2.90 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -1
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.72 2.87 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:45 AM
Legends FC - Del Mar
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +7
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.37 2.81 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
12:45 PM
Rebels SC White
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.53 2.78 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Legends FC
5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.53 2.75 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Black
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.78 2.76 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD
LV Heat Surf
12th · 2-0-4 · GD -9
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.92 2.77 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
FC Long Beach
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -13
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
5–0 2.95 2.78 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Sporting California USA
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.77 2.78 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
LAFC GOLD
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +1
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 2.78 Bank it
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
LA Breakers White
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +6
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.35 2.75 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LA Breakers Red 5500 282+26 153.00 WWWWW -0.74 +0.04 100% 1.1
2 LA Breakers White 4400 82+6 123.00 WWWW -0.70 +0.13 78% 3.5
3 Empire Surf 5410 2810+18 132.60 WWDWW -0.40 -0.02 96% 2.5
4 CDA Slammers FC Black 4301 139+4 92.25 WWWL -0.00 -0.04 33% 5.4
5 Legends FC 5311 159+6 102.00 WDWWL +0.48 -0.31 57% 4.5
6 Legends FC - Del Mar 4202 147+7 61.50 WLWL -0.46 +0.11 20% 6.2
7 LAFC GOLD 4130 109+1 61.50 DDDW +0.57 -0.25 12% 6.6
8 Rebels SC White 4202 44+0 61.50 WWLL -0.80 +0.26 1% 9.7
9 Beach Futbol Club Black 5203 512-7 61.20 LWLLW +0.22 -0.08 0% 11.9
10 Rebels SC Blue 4112 45-1 41.00 DWLL -0.68 +0.20 0% 10.7
11 Sporting California USA 3102 610-4 31.00 LLW +0.43 -0.10 1% 10.2
12 LV Heat Surf 6204 1120-9 61.00 LLLWW -0.09 +0.10 0% 12.8
13 Pateadores 4103 610-4 30.75 LLWL +0.73 -0.26 1% 10.2
14 West Coast FC White 4103 410-6 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.28 0% 11.3
15 FC Long Beach 5104 316-13 30.60 LLLWL +0.32 -0.04 0% 15.0
16 LAFC WHITE 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.29 0% 15.2
17 San Diego Surf 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL +0.26 +0.02 0% 16.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.