TableChase Clubs

West Coast FC White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · West Coast F.C. (all teams)

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14th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
-6 goal diff · 4–10
WLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.3
+1.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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West Coast FC White
14th · 0.75 PPG
vs
FC Long Beach
15th · 0.60 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 11 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.2 against · 2.03 expected points)

Season so farWest Coast FC WhiteFC Long Beach
Position14th15th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-31-0-4
Points per game0.750.60
Goals for / game1.00.6
Goals against / game2.53.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L L L WL W L L L
Biggest win2–1 at LV Heat Surf2–1 vs Rebels SC Blue
Worst loss0–3 at LA Breakers Red1–9 at Legends FC - Del Mar
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.59-1.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.00+0.32

Common opponents: LA Breakers White — we 1–3; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Long Beach average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at LA Breakers Red.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 61% / draw 20% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Pateadores sit 13th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above Pateadores on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Long Beach game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Coast FC White – FC Long Beach) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.20 PPG
9th▲ up 5 11th▲ up 3 14th— holds
Win
1.20 PPG
9th▲ up 5 11th▲ up 3 14th— holds
Draw
0.80 PPG
13th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 2 14th— holds
Loss
0.60 PPG
15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 15%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 11%
  15. 15th 6%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LA Breakers Red 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.75) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 LA Breakers White 3.00 (+2.25) 3rd (2.13) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 Empire Surf 2.60 (+1.85) 2nd (2.31) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 CDA Slammers FC Black 2.25 (+1.50) 5th (1.82) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
5 Legends FC 2.00 (+1.25) 4th (1.95) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 Legends FC - Del Mar 1.50 (+0.75) 6th (1.71) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 LAFC GOLD 1.50 (+0.75) 7th (1.65) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
8 Rebels SC White 1.50 (+0.75) 8th (1.28) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 Beach Futbol Club Black 1.20 (+0.45) 13th (1.07) Win next game
10 Rebels SC Blue 1.00 (+0.25) 11th (1.17) A point next game
11 Sporting California USA 1.00 (+0.25) 9th (1.25) A point next game
12 LV Heat Surf 1.00 (+0.25) 14th (0.99) A point next game
13 Pateadores 0.75 (+0.00) 10th (1.22) Already ahead

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link West Coast FC White to FC Long Beach through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 1–0 2–1 1–5 3–0 2–1 2–0 2–0 0–3 7–1 1–3 2–0 9–1 West Coast FC White 14th LA Breakers White 2nd LV Heat Surf 12th LA Breakers Red 1st Legends FC 5th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 4th Rebels SC White 8th Legends FC - Del Mar 6th FC Long Beach 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.28 · 15th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
02:30 PM
no score posted
Beach Futbol Club Black
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Home
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.65 0.93 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM
FC Long Beach
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -13
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 1.11 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:45 PM
LAFC GOLD
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +1
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.79 1.07 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
LAFC WHITE
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Away far trip
Alemany High School · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.73 1.15 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
12:00 PM
Sporting California USA
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.12 1.15 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Empire Surf
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–4 0.44 1.08 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
San Diego Surf
17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.17 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
06:00 PM
Rebels SC White
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.07 1.16 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Black
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.96 1.15 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:45 PM
Rebels SC Blue
10th · 1-1-2 · GD -1
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.10 1.14 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +7
Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.12 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Pateadores
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.11 1.12 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LA Breakers Red 5500 282+26 153.00 WWWWW -0.74 +0.04 100% 1.1
2 LA Breakers White 4400 82+6 123.00 WWWW -0.70 +0.13 78% 3.5
3 Empire Surf 5410 2810+18 132.60 WWDWW -0.40 -0.02 95% 2.5
4 CDA Slammers FC Black 4301 139+4 92.25 WWWL -0.00 -0.04 33% 5.4
5 Legends FC 5311 159+6 102.00 WDWWL +0.48 -0.31 57% 4.4
6 Legends FC - Del Mar 4202 147+7 61.50 WLWL -0.46 +0.11 21% 6.1
7 LAFC GOLD 4130 109+1 61.50 DDDW +0.57 -0.25 13% 6.6
8 Rebels SC White 4202 44+0 61.50 WWLL -0.80 +0.26 1% 9.8
9 Beach Futbol Club Black 5203 512-7 61.20 LWLLW +0.22 -0.08 0% 11.9
10 Rebels SC Blue 4112 45-1 41.00 DWLL -0.68 +0.20 0% 10.7
11 Sporting California USA 3102 610-4 31.00 LLW +0.43 -0.10 1% 10.1
12 LV Heat Surf 6204 1120-9 61.00 LLLWW -0.09 +0.10 0% 12.7
13 Pateadores 4103 610-4 30.75 LLWL +0.73 -0.26 1% 10.2
14 West Coast FC White 4103 410-6 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.28 0% 11.3
15 FC Long Beach 5104 316-13 30.60 LLLWL +0.32 -0.04 0% 15.0
16 LAFC WHITE 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL +1.65 -0.29 0% 15.2
17 San Diego Surf 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL +0.26 +0.02 0% 16.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.