Empire Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · Empire Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 5.6 for, 2.0 against · 2.67 expected points)
| Season so far | Empire Surf | Sporting California USA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-0 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 5.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 3.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D W W | W L L |
| Biggest win | 9–1 at LV Heat Surf | 3–2 vs Rebels SC Blue |
| Worst loss | — | 1–4 at Legends FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.09 | -0.50 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.40 | +0.43 |
Common opponents: Legends FC — we 4–3; they 1–4.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting California USA concede 3.3/game; worst result 1–4 at Legends FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 5–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Empire Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.17 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–2 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 7%
- 2nd 58%
- 3rd 23%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 3%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Breakers Red | 3.00 (+0.40) | 1st (2.75) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 2 | LA Breakers White | 3.00 (+0.40) | 3rd (2.13) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
6 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Empire Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 8th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Sporting California USA 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home Galway Downs |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
5–2 | 2.67 | 2.61 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
LA Breakers Red 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +26 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
2–4 | 0.50 | 2.31 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
LA Breakers White 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.54 | 2.21 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
West Coast FC White 14th · 1-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
4–1 | 2.46 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM |
Rebels SC White 8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home Galway Downs |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.41 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Pateadores 13th · 1-0-3 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
4–1 | 2.36 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Legends FC - Del Mar 6th · 2-0-2 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.74 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
FC Long Beach 15th · 1-0-4 · GD -13 |
Home Galway Downs |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–1 | 2.89 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
CDA Slammers FC Black 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +4 |
Home Galway Downs |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
4–2 | 2.30 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 09:00 AM |
San Diego Surf 17th · 0-0-3 · GD -12 |
Home Galway Downs |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–1 | 2.92 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 06:00 PM |
Rebels SC Blue 10th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.23 | 2.31 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Breakers Red | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | +26 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.74 | +0.04 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Empire Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 21 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LA Breakers White | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.70 | +0.13 | 78% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Empire Surf · Sun Nov 15 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Empire Surf | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.40 | -0.02 | 96% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers Red · Sat Nov 7 at LA Breakers White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CDA Slammers FC Black | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.00 | -0.04 | 33% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers White · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Legends FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWWL | +0.48 | -0.31 | 57% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC White See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.46 | +0.11 | 20% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at LAFC WHITE · Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC GOLD See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LAFC GOLD | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | DDDW | +0.57 | -0.25 | 12% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Oct 24 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Oct 25 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Rebels SC White | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | -0.80 | +0.26 | 1% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 1 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.22 | -0.08 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at West Coast FC White · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Rebels SC Blue | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | DWLL | -0.68 | +0.20 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC WHITE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.43 | -0.10 | 1% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC White · Sat Oct 24 at Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | LV Heat Surf | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWW | -0.09 | +0.10 | 0% | 12.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Beach Futbol Club Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Pateadores | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.73 | -0.26 | 1% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | West Coast FC White | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +1.00 | -0.28 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Long Beach · Sun Nov 1 at LAFC GOLD See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | FC Long Beach | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.32 | -0.04 | 0% | 15.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Coast FC White · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 14 vs San Diego Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | LAFC WHITE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.65 | -0.29 | 0% | 15.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Oct 18 vs Pateadores · Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC GOLD See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | San Diego Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.26 | +0.02 | 0% | 16.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Nov 14 at FC Long Beach See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.