TableChase Clubs

Rebels SC White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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13th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-9 goal diff · 10–19
LLLWWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.6
-1.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Rebels SC White
13th · 1.20 PPG
vs
LA Breakers Red
14th · 1.00 PPG

Southwestern College, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.2 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so farRebels SC WhiteLA Breakers Red
Position13th14th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-31-2-2
Points per game1.201.00
Goals for / game2.01.0
Goals against / game3.82.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W L L LD W D L L
Biggest win4–1 at LV Heat Surf SC3–1 at CDA Slammers FC Black
Worst loss1–8 vs Eagles SC Blue0–6 at San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.46-0.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.38+0.89

Common opponents: LAFC WHITE — we 1–6; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LA Breakers Red average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 2 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club Black sit 12th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.20.

    A point moves us above Beach Futbol Club Black on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Breakers Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC White – LA Breakers Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 2
Win
1.50 PPG
12th▲ up 1 11th▲ up 2 13th— holds
Draw
1.17 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG
14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 34%
  15. 15th 33%
  16. 16th 14%
  17. 17th 4%
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.80) 1st (2.48) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Long Beach 2.40 (+1.20) 11th (1.35) 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
3 LAFC GOLD 2.25 (+1.05) 2nd (2.30) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
4 Rebels SC Blue 2.25 (+1.05) 3rd (2.08) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
5 Sporting California USA 2.25 (+1.05) 9th (1.74) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 Empire Surf 2.00 (+0.80) 4th (2.00) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
7 LAFC WHITE 2.00 (+0.80) 6th (1.84) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Legends FC 1.80 (+0.60) 10th (1.62) 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 West Coast FC White 1.75 (+0.55) 8th (1.76) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
10 Eagles SC Blue 1.75 (+0.55) 5th (1.89) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
11 Pateadores 1.67 (+0.47) 12th (1.34) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 1.40 (+0.20) 7th (1.77) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC White to LA Breakers Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
8 favour them
-4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–6 1–1 3–0 2–0 1–3 3–1 1–3 3–1 1–2 0–6 1–1 4–1 1–11 0–14 6–0 1–8 0–0 0–11 0–11 Rebels SC White 13th LAFC WHITE 7th FC Long Beach 2nd LA Breakers White 16th LV Heat Surf SC 18th Eagles SC Blue 10th Pateadores 11th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 15th West Coast FC White 9th San Diego Surf 1st LA Breakers Red 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.71 · 1st hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
05:15 PM
no score posted
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.44 1.07 Upside
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM
LA Breakers Red
14th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Home
Southwestern College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.24 1.10 Upside
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club Black
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +9
Away far trip
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–3 0.27 0.99 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:45 PM
Legends FC
8th · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–3 0.75 0.97 Upside
Sat Nov 14
06:15 PM
LAFC GOLD
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Away far trip
Alemany High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–6 0.06 0.88 Upside
Sat Mar 20
01:00 PM
Empire Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Away far trip
Galway Downs
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.21 0.82 Upside
Sat Apr 3
06:15 PM
CDA Slammers FC Black
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
3–3 1.37 0.86 Upside
Sat Apr 10
02:30 PM
West Coast FC White
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +15
Home
Southwestern College · turf
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.32 0.82 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Rebels SC Blue
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9
Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.33 0.79 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–2 1.68 0.85 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Pateadores
11th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.60 0.83 Upside
Sat May 8
04:30 PM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +21
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.10 0.79 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 210+21 93.00 WWW -1.92 +0.30 98% 1.6
2 FC Long Beach 5401 1010+0 122.40 WWWLW -0.94 +0.53 0% 11.2
3 LAFC GOLD 4301 244+20 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.18 91% 2.4
4 Rebels SC Blue 4301 134+9 92.25 WWWL +0.64 -0.23 62% 4.2
5 Sporting California USA 4301 96+3 92.25 WWLW +0.33 -0.03 11% 7.8
6 Empire Surf 5311 186+12 102.00 WWWDL -0.09 +0.05 47% 5.0
7 LAFC WHITE 5311 164+12 102.00 LWDWW -0.57 +0.21 22% 6.6
8 Legends FC 5302 109+1 91.80 LLWWW +0.81 -0.26 5% 8.7
9 West Coast FC White 4211 194+15 71.75 WWLD -1.97 +0.62 17% 7.1
10 Eagles SC Blue 4211 123+9 71.75 WLWD +0.18 -0.06 31% 5.9
11 Pateadores 6312 1614+2 101.67 WWLDL -0.39 +0.61 0% 11.2
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 134+9 71.40 WWLDL +0.63 -0.21 15% 7.2
13 Rebels SC White 5203 1019-9 61.20 LLLWW -1.38 +0.71 0% 14.6
14 LA Breakers Red 5122 511-6 51.00 LLDWD +0.89 -0.25 0% 12.5
15 CDA Slammers FC Black 5104 1320-7 30.60 LLWLL -0.60 +0.47 0% 14.8
16 LA Breakers White 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.24 0% 16.1
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 +0.02 0% 16.2
18 LV Heat Surf SC 6006 263-61 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.40 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.