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Rebels SC Blue

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+9 goal diff · 13–4
WWWLlast 4
62% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
+0.64 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Rebels SC Blue
4th · 2.25 PPG
vs
LV Heat Surf SC
18th · 0.00 PPG

El Cajon Valley High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 9–0 (expected goals 10.4 for, 0.7 against · 3.00 expected points)

Season so farRebels SC BlueLV Heat Surf SC
Position4th18th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-10-0-6
Points per game2.250.00
Goals for / game3.30.3
Goals against / game1.010.5
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)L W W WL L L L L
Biggest win8–0 at FC Long Beach—
Worst loss1–2 at Sporting California USA0–14 vs San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.51-6.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.64+0.50

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LV Heat Surf SC average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LV Heat Surf SC concede 10.5/game; worst result 0–14 vs San Diego Surf.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 100% chance; likely score 9–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LV Heat Surf SC have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    LAFC GOLD sit 3rd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above LAFC GOLD on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC Blue – LV Heat Surf SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 2 4th— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 2 4th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
7th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 5
Loss
1.80 PPG
7th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 9–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
62% top 4
38% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 14%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.48) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 FC Long Beach 2.40 (+0.15) 11th (1.35) Win next game
3 LAFC GOLD 2.25 (+0.00) 2nd (2.30) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC Blue to LV Heat Surf SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
0 favour them
+14.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 8–1 4–1 0–0 11–1 8–0 3–1 2–1 1–1 12–0 0–1 14–0 4–0 11–0 3–1 Rebels SC Blue 4th Eagles SC Blue 10th FC Long Beach 2nd Beach Futbol Club B… 12th Rebels SC White 13th Pateadores 11th Empire Surf 6th San Diego Surf 1st CDA Slammers FC Bla… 15th LV Heat Surf SC 18th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 16th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
12:45 PM
no score posted
Legends FC
8th · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.08 2.22 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -61
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 3.00 2.35 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
LA Breakers Red
14th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.22 2.33 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
LA Breakers White
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.66 2.37 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:30 PM
LAFC GOLD
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.80 2.19 Upside
Sun Mar 7
09:00 AM
LAFC WHITE
7th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.56 2.13 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Legends FC - Del Mar
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.84 2.20 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:30 PM
Pateadores
11th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Home
Southwestern College · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.28 2.20 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +21
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.71 2.09 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Rebels SC White
13th · 2-0-3 · GD -9
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.58 2.12 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
04:15 PM
West Coast FC White
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +15
Home
Southwestern College · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 2.09 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Black
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.49 2.11 Bank it
Sat May 8
09:00 AM
Empire Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.60 2.08 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 210+21 93.00 WWW -1.92 +0.30 98% 1.6
2 FC Long Beach 5401 1010+0 122.40 WWWLW -0.94 +0.53 0% 11.2
3 LAFC GOLD 4301 244+20 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.18 91% 2.4
4 Rebels SC Blue 4301 134+9 92.25 WWWL +0.64 -0.23 62% 4.2
5 Sporting California USA 4301 96+3 92.25 WWLW +0.33 -0.03 11% 7.8
6 Empire Surf 5311 186+12 102.00 WWWDL -0.09 +0.05 47% 5.0
7 LAFC WHITE 5311 164+12 102.00 LWDWW -0.57 +0.21 22% 6.6
8 Legends FC 5302 109+1 91.80 LLWWW +0.81 -0.26 5% 8.7
9 West Coast FC White 4211 194+15 71.75 WWLD -1.97 +0.62 17% 7.1
10 Eagles SC Blue 4211 123+9 71.75 WLWD +0.18 -0.06 31% 5.9
11 Pateadores 6312 1614+2 101.67 WWLDL -0.39 +0.61 0% 11.2
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 134+9 71.40 WWLDL +0.63 -0.21 15% 7.2
13 Rebels SC White 5203 1019-9 61.20 LLLWW -1.38 +0.71 0% 14.6
14 LA Breakers Red 5122 511-6 51.00 LLDWD +0.89 -0.25 0% 12.5
15 CDA Slammers FC Black 5104 1320-7 30.60 LLWLL -0.60 +0.47 0% 14.8
16 LA Breakers White 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.24 0% 16.1
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 +0.02 0% 16.2
18 LV Heat Surf SC 6006 263-61 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.40 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.