Rebels SC Blue
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
El Cajon Valley High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 9–0 (expected goals 10.4 for, 0.7 against · 3.00 expected points)
| Season so far | Rebels SC Blue | LV Heat Surf SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 18th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 10.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 8–0 at FC Long Beach | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Sporting California USA | 0–14 vs San Diego Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.51 | -6.47 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.64 | +0.50 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
LV Heat Surf SC average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
LV Heat Surf SC concede 10.5/game; worst result 0–14 vs San Diego Surf.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 100% chance; likely score 9–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
LV Heat Surf SC have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
LAFC GOLD sit 3rd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.A point moves us above LAFC GOLD on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC Blue – LV Heat Surf SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 2 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 2 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 5 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
7th▼ down 3 | 7th▼ down 3 | 10th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 9–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 6%
- 2nd 14%
- 3rd 23%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 3%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 1%
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
- 18th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Surf | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.48) | 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 2 | FC Long Beach | 2.40 (+0.15) | 11th (1.35) | Win next game |
| 3 | LAFC GOLD | 2.25 (+0.00) | 2nd (2.30) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Rebels SC Blue to LV Heat Surf SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.23 · 16th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 3 12:45 PM no score posted |
Legends FC 8th · 3-0-2 · GD +1 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.08 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
LV Heat Surf SC 18th · 0-0-6 · GD -61 |
Home El Cajon Valley High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 3.00 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
LA Breakers Red 14th · 1-2-2 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
LA Breakers White 16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.66 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 12:30 PM |
LAFC GOLD 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–3 | 0.80 | 2.19 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
LAFC WHITE 7th · 3-1-1 · GD +12 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.56 | 2.13 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Legends FC - Del Mar 17th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.84 | 2.20 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 12:30 PM |
Pateadores 11th · 3-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home Southwestern College · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 2.20 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
San Diego Surf 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.71 | 2.09 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Rebels SC White 13th · 2-0-3 · GD -9 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.58 | 2.12 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 04:15 PM |
West Coast FC White 9th · 2-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home Southwestern College · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.60 | 2.09 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
CDA Slammers FC Black 15th · 1-0-4 · GD -7 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
4–1 | 2.49 | 2.11 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 09:00 AM |
Empire Surf 6th · 3-1-1 · GD +12 |
Home Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.60 | 2.08 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Surf | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | +21 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.92 | +0.30 | 98% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eagles SC Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC GOLD See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Long Beach | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.94 | +0.53 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Coast FC White · Sat Oct 31 at Eagles SC Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs Pateadores See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | LAFC GOLD | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 4 | +20 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | +0.12 | -0.18 | 91% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAFC WHITE · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast FC White · Sat Nov 7 at San Diego Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Rebels SC Blue | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.64 | -0.23 | 62% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf SC · Sat Nov 7 at LA Breakers Red See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | +0.33 | -0.03 | 11% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC White · Sat Oct 24 at Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Empire Surf | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWDL | -0.09 | +0.05 | 47% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers Red · Sat Nov 7 at LA Breakers White See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LAFC WHITE | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 10 | 2.00 | LWDWW | -0.57 | +0.21 | 22% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC GOLD · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 14 vs West Coast FC White See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Legends FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | LLWWW | +0.81 | -0.26 | 5% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Pateadores · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC White See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | West Coast FC White | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 7 | 1.75 | WWLD | -1.97 | +0.62 | 17% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Long Beach · Sun Nov 1 at LAFC GOLD See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Eagles SC Blue | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | +0.18 | -0.06 | 31% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Long Beach See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pateadores | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | WWLDL | -0.39 | +0.61 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Long Beach See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 7 | 1.40 | WWLDL | +0.63 | -0.21 | 15% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at West Coast FC White · Sun Oct 25 at Pateadores · Sun Nov 1 vs Rebels SC White See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Rebels SC White | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | -1.38 | +0.71 | 0% | 14.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 24 vs LA Breakers Red · Sun Nov 1 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | LA Breakers Red | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 | 1.00 | LLDWD | +0.89 | -0.25 | 0% | 12.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC White · Sat Oct 31 vs Empire Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Rebels SC Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | CDA Slammers FC Black | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | -0.60 | +0.47 | 0% | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Eagles SC Blue · Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers White · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | LA Breakers White | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | -0.11 | +0.24 | 0% | 16.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CDA Slammers FC Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Empire Surf · Sun Nov 15 at Legends FC - Del Mar See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.62 | +0.02 | 0% | 16.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf SC · Sat Nov 14 at Eagles SC Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs LA Breakers White See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | LV Heat Surf SC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 63 | -61 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.50 | +0.40 | 0% | 18.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at Rebels SC Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs Beach Futbol Club Black See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.