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Legends FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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8th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+1 goal diff · 10–9
LLWWWlast 5
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.7
+0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Legends FC
8th · 1.80 PPG
vs
Pateadores
11th · 1.67 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 21 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.8 against · 1.72 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCPateadores
Position8th11th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-23-1-2
Points per game1.801.67
Goals for / game2.02.7
Goals against / game1.82.3
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W W W L LL D L W W
Biggest win3–0 at Empire Surf11–1 vs LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss0–4 at LAFC GOLD1–9 at LAFC GOLD
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.33+0.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.81-0.39

Common opponents: LAFC GOLD — we 0–4; they 1–9.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at LAFC GOLD.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 20% / loss 30%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    LAFC WHITE sit 7th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A win moves us above LAFC WHITE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Pateadores) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 2
Win
2.00 PPG
8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 2
Draw
1.67 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3
Loss
1.50 PPG
11th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 3 12th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
8.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 18%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 7%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.48) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 FC Long Beach 2.40 (+0.60) 11th (1.35) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
3 LAFC GOLD 2.25 (+0.45) 2nd (2.30) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 Rebels SC Blue 2.25 (+0.45) 3rd (2.08) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 Sporting California USA 2.25 (+0.45) 9th (1.74) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 Empire Surf 2.00 (+0.20) 4th (2.00) Win next game
7 LAFC WHITE 2.00 (+0.20) 6th (1.84) Win next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to Pateadores through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+3.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 9–1 3–1 1–1 0–2 3–2 0–5 3–0 11–0 1–11 1–2 0–3 0–0 3–0 12–0 2–1 6–0 1–2 3–1 Legends FC 8th LAFC GOLD 3rd West Coast FC White 9th Legends FC - Del Mar 17th Sporting California… 5th Empire Surf 6th LA Breakers Red 14th LAFC WHITE 7th LV Heat Surf SC 18th Eagles SC Blue 10th LA Breakers White 16th Pateadores 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.26 · 18th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
12:45 PM
no score posted
Rebels SC Blue
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.75 1.62 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Pateadores
11th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.72 1.64 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
05:45 PM
Rebels SC White
13th · 2-0-3 · GD -9
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–1 2.09 1.69 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
CDA Slammers FC Black
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 1.75 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +21
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.36 1.61 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
LA Breakers Red
14th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.71 1.62 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM
FC Long Beach
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +0
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
LA Breakers White
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.27 1.69 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -61
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 1.78 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Pateadores
11th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.41 1.76 Upside
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
LAFC WHITE
7th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.03 1.71 Upside
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
Eagles SC Blue
10th · 2-1-1 · GD +9
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.02 1.67 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Black
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +9
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.84 1.62 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 210+21 93.00 WWW -1.92 +0.30 97% 1.6
2 FC Long Beach 5401 1010+0 122.40 WWWLW -0.94 +0.53 0% 11.2
3 LAFC GOLD 4301 244+20 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.18 90% 2.5
4 Rebels SC Blue 4301 134+9 92.25 WWWL +0.64 -0.23 63% 4.2
5 Sporting California USA 4301 96+3 92.25 WWLW +0.33 -0.03 10% 7.8
6 Empire Surf 5311 186+12 102.00 WWWDL -0.09 +0.05 48% 5.0
7 LAFC WHITE 5311 164+12 102.00 LWDWW -0.57 +0.21 22% 6.6
8 Legends FC 5302 109+1 91.80 LLWWW +0.81 -0.26 5% 8.7
9 West Coast FC White 4211 194+15 71.75 WWLD -1.97 +0.62 17% 7.2
10 Eagles SC Blue 4211 123+9 71.75 WLWD +0.18 -0.06 32% 5.9
11 Pateadores 6312 1614+2 101.67 WWLDL -0.39 +0.61 1% 11.1
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 134+9 71.40 WWLDL +0.63 -0.21 16% 7.1
13 Rebels SC White 5203 1019-9 61.20 LLLWW -1.38 +0.71 0% 14.5
14 LA Breakers Red 5122 511-6 51.00 LLDWD +0.89 -0.25 0% 12.6
15 CDA Slammers FC Black 5104 1320-7 30.60 LLWLL -0.60 +0.47 0% 14.7
16 LA Breakers White 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.24 0% 16.2
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 +0.02 0% 16.2
18 LV Heat Surf SC 6006 263-61 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.40 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.