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LAFC GOLD

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+20 goal diff · 24–4
WLWWlast 4
91% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4
+0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:30 PM

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LAFC GOLD
3rd · 2.25 PPG
at
LAFC WHITE
7th · 2.00 PPG

Oak Park High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.0 against · 1.72 expected points)

Season so farLAFC GOLDLAFC WHITE
Position3rd7th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-13-1-1
Points per game2.252.00
Goals for / game6.03.2
Goals against / game1.00.8
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W L WW W D W L
Biggest win10–0 at CDA Slammers FC Black6–1 at Rebels SC White
Worst loss1–3 at Empire Surf1–2 vs Empire Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.90+1.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.12-0.57

Common opponents: Empire Surf — we 1–3; they 1–2. Pateadores — we 9–1; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    LAFC WHITE concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 18% / loss 30%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:30 PM at Oak Park High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FC Long Beach sit 2nd on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A win moves us above FC Long Beach on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC WHITE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC GOLD – LAFC WHITE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 3
Win
2.40 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 3
Loss
1.80 PPG
7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4 10th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

26% finish 1st
91% top 4
9% below the top 4
2.4 average finish
  1. 1st 26%
  2. 2nd 40%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.48) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 FC Long Beach 2.40 (+0.15) 11th (1.35) Win next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC GOLD to LAFC WHITE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–1 9–1 0–3 4–0 3–2 0–5 10–0 1–3 1–1 3–0 2–0 LAFC GOLD 3rd Empire Surf 6th Pateadores 11th Legends FC 8th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 15th Legends FC - Del Mar 17th LA Breakers Red 14th LAFC WHITE 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 14th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:30 PM
LAFC WHITE
7th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Away
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.72 2.14 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
04:30 PM
West Coast FC White
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +15
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.11 2.14 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +21
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.09 1.99 Upside
Sat Nov 14
06:15 PM
Rebels SC White
13th · 2-0-3 · GD -9
Home
Alemany High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–1 2.92 2.11 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -61
Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 3.00 2.20 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
11:00 AM
Legends FC - Del Mar
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.91 2.28 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:30 PM
Rebels SC Blue
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.05 2.26 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Black
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +9
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.03 2.24 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Eagles SC Blue
10th · 2-1-1 · GD +9
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.70 2.20 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LA Breakers White
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–0 2.94 2.25 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.44 2.26 Bank it
Sat May 1
07:00 PM
FC Long Beach
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Millikan High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.56 2.28 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
LA Breakers Red
14th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.59 2.30 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 210+21 93.00 WWW -1.92 +0.30 98% 1.6
2 FC Long Beach 5401 1010+0 122.40 WWWLW -0.94 +0.53 0% 11.2
3 LAFC GOLD 4301 244+20 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.18 91% 2.4
4 Rebels SC Blue 4301 134+9 92.25 WWWL +0.64 -0.23 62% 4.2
5 Sporting California USA 4301 96+3 92.25 WWLW +0.33 -0.03 11% 7.8
6 Empire Surf 5311 186+12 102.00 WWWDL -0.09 +0.05 47% 5.0
7 LAFC WHITE 5311 164+12 102.00 LWDWW -0.57 +0.21 22% 6.6
8 Legends FC 5302 109+1 91.80 LLWWW +0.81 -0.26 5% 8.7
9 West Coast FC White 4211 194+15 71.75 WWLD -1.97 +0.62 17% 7.1
10 Eagles SC Blue 4211 123+9 71.75 WLWD +0.18 -0.06 31% 5.9
11 Pateadores 6312 1614+2 101.67 WWLDL -0.39 +0.61 0% 11.2
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 134+9 71.40 WWLDL +0.63 -0.21 15% 7.2
13 Rebels SC White 5203 1019-9 61.20 LLLWW -1.38 +0.71 0% 14.6
14 LA Breakers Red 5122 511-6 51.00 LLDWD +0.89 -0.25 0% 12.5
15 CDA Slammers FC Black 5104 1320-7 30.60 LLWLL -0.60 +0.47 0% 14.8
16 LA Breakers White 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.24 0% 16.1
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 +0.02 0% 16.2
18 LV Heat Surf SC 6006 263-61 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.40 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.