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FC Long Beach

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · FC Long Beach Blues (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+0 goal diff · 10–10
WWWLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.2
-0.94 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:30 AM

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FC Long Beach
2nd · 2.40 PPG
at
West Coast FC White
9th · 1.75 PPG

Orange County Great Park, Field 11 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.4 against · 0.48 expected points)

Season so farFC Long BeachWest Coast FC White
Position2nd9th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-12-1-1
Points per game2.401.75
Goals for / game2.04.8
Goals against / game2.01.0
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L W W WD L W W
Biggest win3–0 vs LA Breakers White11–0 at LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss0–8 vs Rebels SC Blue1–3 at Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.33+1.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.94-1.97

Common opponents: LA Breakers White — we 3–0; they 6–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    West Coast FC White score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    West Coast FC White concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–8 vs Rebels SC Blue.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:30 AM at Orange County Great Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Coast FC White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Long Beach – West Coast FC White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG
8th▼ down 6 6th▼ down 4 9th▼ down 7
Win
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG
5th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 5
Loss
2.00 PPG
8th▼ down 6 6th▼ down 4 9th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 25%
  12. 12th 28%
  13. 13th 17%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.60) 1st (2.48) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Long Beach to West Coast FC White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–6 3–1 1–3 1–1 3–1 3–1 11–0 0–11 1–0 2–3 3–1 4–1 FC Long Beach 2nd LA Breakers White 16th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 15th Rebels SC White 13th Legends FC - Del Mar 17th LA Breakers Red 14th LV Heat Surf SC 18th Legends FC 8th West Coast FC White 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.53 · 4th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
08:30 AM
West Coast FC White
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +15
Away far trip
Orange County Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.48 2.08 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Eagles SC Blue
10th · 2-1-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–2 0.52 1.86 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
Pateadores
11th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Home
Cabrillo High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.35 1.79 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:45 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +21
Home
Cabrillo High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.31 1.63 Upside
Sat Nov 21
03:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club Black
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +9
Away
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.58 1.52 Upside
Sat Mar 13
05:00 PM
LAFC WHITE
7th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Home
Millikan High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.73 1.45 Upside
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM
Legends FC
8th · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.93 1.41 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LA Breakers Red
14th · 1-2-2 · GD -6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.39 1.41 Upside
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM
Empire Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Away far trip
Galway Downs
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.51 1.34 Upside
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -61
Home
Millikan High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.94 1.45 Bank it
Sat May 1
07:00 PM
LAFC GOLD
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Home
Millikan High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.35 1.38 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 1.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 210+21 93.00 WWW -1.92 +0.30 98% 1.6
2 FC Long Beach 5401 1010+0 122.40 WWWLW -0.94 +0.53 0% 11.2
3 LAFC GOLD 4301 244+20 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.18 91% 2.4
4 Rebels SC Blue 4301 134+9 92.25 WWWL +0.64 -0.23 62% 4.2
5 Sporting California USA 4301 96+3 92.25 WWLW +0.33 -0.03 12% 7.7
6 Empire Surf 5311 186+12 102.00 WWWDL -0.09 +0.05 48% 4.9
7 LAFC WHITE 5311 164+12 102.00 LWDWW -0.57 +0.21 23% 6.6
8 Legends FC 5302 109+1 91.80 LLWWW +0.81 -0.26 6% 8.6
9 West Coast FC White 4211 194+15 71.75 WWLD -1.97 +0.62 16% 7.2
10 Eagles SC Blue 4211 123+9 71.75 WLWD +0.18 -0.06 29% 6.1
11 Pateadores 6312 1614+2 101.67 WWLDL -0.39 +0.61 0% 11.1
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 134+9 71.40 WWLDL +0.63 -0.21 15% 7.2
13 Rebels SC White 5203 1019-9 61.20 LLLWW -1.38 +0.71 0% 14.5
14 LA Breakers Red 5122 511-6 51.00 LLDWD +0.89 -0.25 0% 12.6
15 CDA Slammers FC Black 5104 1320-7 30.60 LLWLL -0.60 +0.47 0% 14.7
16 LA Breakers White 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.24 0% 16.2
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 +0.02 0% 16.2
18 LV Heat Surf SC 6006 263-61 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.40 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.