TableChase Clubs

Pateadores

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · Pateadores Soccer Club (all teams)

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11th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
+2 goal diff · 16–14
WWLDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.1
-0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:00 AM

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Pateadores
11th · 1.67 PPG
vs
Beach Futbol Club Black
12th · 1.40 PPG

Edison High School, Turf Fld. ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.3 against · 0.92 expected points)

Season so farPateadoresBeach Futbol Club Black
Position11th12th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-22-1-2
Points per game1.671.40
Goals for / game2.72.6
Goals against / game2.30.8
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L D L W WL D L W W
Biggest win11–1 vs LV Heat Surf SC7–0 vs Legends FC - Del Mar
Worst loss1–9 at LAFC GOLD1–2 at Rebels SC Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.04+1.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.39+0.63

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Beach Futbol Club Black concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Eagles SC Blue, 0–3 at LAFC WHITE.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Eagles SC Blue sit 10th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above Eagles SC Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pateadores – Beach Futbol Club Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.43 PPG
12th▼ down 1 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Win
1.86 PPG
8th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 4 10th▲ up 1
Draw
1.57 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 11th— holds
Loss
1.43 PPG
12th▼ down 1 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 15%
  11. 11th 24%
  12. 12th 26%
  13. 13th 16%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.48) 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 FC Long Beach 2.40 (+0.73) 11th (1.35) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
3 LAFC GOLD 2.25 (+0.58) 2nd (2.30) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 Rebels SC Blue 2.25 (+0.58) 3rd (2.08) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Sporting California USA 2.25 (+0.58) 9th (1.74) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6 Empire Surf 2.00 (+0.33) 4th (2.00) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 LAFC WHITE 2.00 (+0.33) 6th (1.84) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Legends FC 1.80 (+0.13) 10th (1.62) A point next game
9 West Coast FC White 1.75 (+0.08) 8th (1.76) A point next game
10 Eagles SC Blue 1.75 (+0.08) 5th (1.89) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Pateadores to Beach Futbol Club Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 even
8 favour them
-3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 1–2 2–1 2–0 3–1 0–4 1–9 10–0 11–1 0–12 1–1 0–14 1–0 0–6 0–3 1–2 5–0 0–7 0–11 1–3 Pateadores 11th Eagles SC Blue 10th LA Breakers Red 14th LAFC GOLD 3rd LV Heat Surf SC 18th LAFC WHITE 7th Rebels SC Blue 4th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 15th Empire Surf 6th San Diego Surf 1st Legends FC - Del Mar 17th Beach Futbol Club B… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.61 · 3rd hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club Black
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +9
Home
Edison High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.56 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Legends FC
8th · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.09 1.50 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
FC Long Beach
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Cabrillo High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.45 1.50 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.29 1.47 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:30 PM
Rebels SC Blue
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.58 1.39 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Empire Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 1.35 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
CDA Slammers FC Black
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
3–2 1.79 1.38 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Legends FC
8th · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.38 1.38 Upside
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +21
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.24 1.31 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Rebels SC White
13th · 2-0-3 · GD -9
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 1.37 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
West Coast FC White
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +15
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–3 0.84 1.34 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 210+21 93.00 WWW -1.92 +0.30 97% 1.6
2 FC Long Beach 5401 1010+0 122.40 WWWLW -0.94 +0.53 0% 11.1
3 LAFC GOLD 4301 244+20 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.18 92% 2.4
4 Rebels SC Blue 4301 134+9 92.25 WWWL +0.64 -0.23 65% 4.1
5 Sporting California USA 4301 96+3 92.25 WWLW +0.33 -0.03 10% 7.7
6 Empire Surf 5311 186+12 102.00 WWWDL -0.09 +0.05 47% 5.1
7 LAFC WHITE 5311 164+12 102.00 LWDWW -0.57 +0.21 21% 6.6
8 Legends FC 5302 109+1 91.80 LLWWW +0.81 -0.26 5% 8.6
9 West Coast FC White 4211 194+15 71.75 WWLD -1.97 +0.62 17% 7.2
10 Eagles SC Blue 4211 123+9 71.75 WLWD +0.18 -0.06 31% 6.0
11 Pateadores 6312 1614+2 101.67 WWLDL -0.39 +0.61 0% 11.1
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 134+9 71.40 WWLDL +0.63 -0.21 15% 7.2
13 Rebels SC White 5203 1019-9 61.20 LLLWW -1.38 +0.71 0% 14.5
14 LA Breakers Red 5122 511-6 51.00 LLDWD +0.89 -0.25 0% 12.5
15 CDA Slammers FC Black 5104 1320-7 30.60 LLWLL -0.60 +0.47 0% 14.7
16 LA Breakers White 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.24 0% 16.2
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 +0.02 0% 16.2
18 LV Heat Surf SC 6006 263-61 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.40 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.