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LAFC WHITE

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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7th
3-1-1 record · 5 played
2.00 points per game
+12 goal diff · 16–4
LWDWWlast 5
21% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.6
-0.57 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:30 PM

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LAFC WHITE
7th · 2.00 PPG
vs
LAFC GOLD
3rd · 2.25 PPG

Oak Park High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.6 against · 1.09 expected points)

Season so farLAFC WHITELAFC GOLD
Position7th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-13-0-1
Points per game2.002.25
Goals for / game3.26.0
Goals against / game0.81.0
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W D W LW W L W
Biggest win6–1 at Rebels SC White10–0 at CDA Slammers FC Black
Worst loss1–2 vs Empire Surf1–3 at Empire Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.33+2.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.57+0.12

Common opponents: Empire Surf — we 1–2; they 1–3. Pateadores — we 3–0; they 9–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAFC GOLD score 6.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    LAFC GOLD concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Empire Surf sit 6th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above Empire Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC GOLD game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC WHITE – LAFC GOLD) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.83 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3
Win
2.17 PPG
5th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 1
Draw
1.83 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.67 PPG
10th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
21% top 4
79% below the top 4
6.6 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.48) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 FC Long Beach 2.40 (+0.40) 11th (1.35) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
3 LAFC GOLD 2.25 (+0.25) 2nd (2.30) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 Rebels SC Blue 2.25 (+0.25) 3rd (2.08) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Sporting California USA 2.25 (+0.25) 9th (1.74) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6 Empire Surf 2.00 (+0.00) 4th (2.00) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC WHITE to LAFC GOLD through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
-5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 3–1 3–0 1–9 5–0 2–3 0–4 1–1 3–1 0–10 0–3 0–2 LAFC WHITE 7th Empire Surf 6th Pateadores 11th Legends FC - Del Mar 17th LA Breakers Red 14th Legends FC 8th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 15th LAFC GOLD 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 9th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:30 PM
LAFC GOLD
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.09 1.85 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club Black
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +9
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.29 1.77 Upside
Sat Nov 14
04:30 PM
West Coast FC White
9th · 2-1-1 · GD +15
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.57 1.74 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
02:15 PM
CDA Slammers FC Black
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Home
Alemany High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.64 1.84 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
09:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–2 1.23 1.78 Upside
Sat Mar 13
05:00 PM
FC Long Beach
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Millikan High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 1.81 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LA Breakers White
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.61 1.88 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -61
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 2.99 1.96 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 1.96 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +21
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.72 1.88 Upside
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Legends FC
8th · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.76 1.87 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
Eagles SC Blue
10th · 2-1-1 · GD +9
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.24 1.84 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 210+21 93.00 WWW -1.92 +0.30 97% 1.6
2 FC Long Beach 5401 1010+0 122.40 WWWLW -0.94 +0.53 0% 11.1
3 LAFC GOLD 4301 244+20 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.18 92% 2.4
4 Rebels SC Blue 4301 134+9 92.25 WWWL +0.64 -0.23 65% 4.1
5 Sporting California USA 4301 96+3 92.25 WWLW +0.33 -0.03 10% 7.7
6 Empire Surf 5311 186+12 102.00 WWWDL -0.09 +0.05 47% 5.1
7 LAFC WHITE 5311 164+12 102.00 LWDWW -0.57 +0.21 21% 6.6
8 Legends FC 5302 109+1 91.80 LLWWW +0.81 -0.26 5% 8.6
9 West Coast FC White 4211 194+15 71.75 WWLD -1.97 +0.62 17% 7.2
10 Eagles SC Blue 4211 123+9 71.75 WLWD +0.18 -0.06 31% 6.0
11 Pateadores 6312 1614+2 101.67 WWLDL -0.39 +0.61 0% 11.1
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 134+9 71.40 WWLDL +0.63 -0.21 15% 7.2
13 Rebels SC White 5203 1019-9 61.20 LLLWW -1.38 +0.71 0% 14.5
14 LA Breakers Red 5122 511-6 51.00 LLDWD +0.89 -0.25 0% 12.5
15 CDA Slammers FC Black 5104 1320-7 30.60 LLWLL -0.60 +0.47 0% 14.7
16 LA Breakers White 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.24 0% 16.2
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 +0.02 0% 16.2
18 LV Heat Surf SC 6006 263-61 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.40 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.