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LA Breakers Red

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southern Cal BU13 · 18 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

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14th
1-2-2 record · 5 played
1.00 points per game
-6 goal diff · 5–11
LLDWDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.5
+0.89 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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LA Breakers Red
14th · 1.00 PPG
at
Rebels SC White
13th · 1.20 PPG

Southwestern College, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.9 against · 1.55 expected points)

Season so farLA Breakers RedRebels SC White
Position14th13th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-22-0-3
Points per game1.001.20
Goals for / game1.02.0
Goals against / game2.23.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)D W D L LW W L L L
Biggest win3–1 at CDA Slammers FC Black4–1 at LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss0–6 at San Diego Surf1–8 vs Eagles SC Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.54-1.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.89-1.38

Common opponents: LAFC WHITE — we 1–1; they 1–6.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Rebels SC White concede 3.8/game; worst result 1–8 vs Eagles SC Blue.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 at San Diego Surf, 0–2 at Pateadores.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 20% / loss 35%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:00 PM at Southwestern College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Rebels SC White sit 13th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Rebels SC White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers Red – Rebels SC White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.33 PPG
13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1
Win
1.33 PPG
13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.83 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 22%
  13. 13th 42%
  14. 14th 13%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.41 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.48) 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Long Beach 2.40 (+1.40) 11th (1.35) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
3 LAFC GOLD 2.25 (+1.25) 2nd (2.30) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Rebels SC Blue 2.25 (+1.25) 3rd (2.08) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 Sporting California USA 2.25 (+1.25) 9th (1.74) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Empire Surf 2.00 (+1.00) 4th (2.00) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 LAFC WHITE 2.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.84) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Legends FC 1.80 (+0.80) 10th (1.62) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 West Coast FC White 1.75 (+0.75) 8th (1.76) 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
10 Eagles SC Blue 1.75 (+0.75) 5th (1.89) 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
11 Pateadores 1.67 (+0.67) 12th (1.34) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 1.40 (+0.40) 7th (1.77) 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
13 Rebels SC White 1.20 (+0.20) 14th (0.79) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers Red to Rebels SC White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 6–1 0–2 0–3 3–1 1–3 3–1 2–1 1–3 1–1 6–0 11–1 1–4 0–0 8–1 0–6 14–0 11–0 11–0 LA Breakers Red 14th LAFC WHITE 7th Pateadores 11th CDA Slammers FC Bla… 15th West Coast FC White 9th San Diego Surf 1st FC Long Beach 2nd LA Breakers White 16th LV Heat Surf SC 18th Eagles SC Blue 10th Rebels SC White 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.25 · 17th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM
Rebels SC White
13th · 2-0-3 · GD -9
Away far trip
Southwestern College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.55 1.09 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
04:00 PM
Empire Surf
6th · 3-1-1 · GD +12
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.65 1.03 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Rebels SC Blue
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.62 0.98 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:30 AM
Legends FC - Del Mar
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.90 1.08 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Legends FC
8th · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.07 1.08 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Beach Futbol Club Black
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +9
Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.53 1.03 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
18th · 0-0-6 · GD -61
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.89 1.18 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Eagles SC Blue
10th · 2-1-1 · GD +9
Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.47 1.13 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
FC Long Beach
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +0
Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.38 1.15 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Sporting California USA
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.75 1.12 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
LAFC GOLD
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +20
Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.31 1.07 Upside
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
LA Breakers White
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.05 1.13 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 3300 210+21 93.00 WWW -1.92 +0.30 97% 1.6
2 FC Long Beach 5401 1010+0 122.40 WWWLW -0.94 +0.53 0% 11.1
3 LAFC GOLD 4301 244+20 92.25 WLWW +0.12 -0.18 92% 2.4
4 Rebels SC Blue 4301 134+9 92.25 WWWL +0.64 -0.23 65% 4.1
5 Sporting California USA 4301 96+3 92.25 WWLW +0.33 -0.03 10% 7.7
6 Empire Surf 5311 186+12 102.00 WWWDL -0.09 +0.05 47% 5.1
7 LAFC WHITE 5311 164+12 102.00 LWDWW -0.57 +0.21 21% 6.6
8 Legends FC 5302 109+1 91.80 LLWWW +0.81 -0.26 5% 8.6
9 West Coast FC White 4211 194+15 71.75 WWLD -1.97 +0.62 17% 7.2
10 Eagles SC Blue 4211 123+9 71.75 WLWD +0.18 -0.06 31% 6.0
11 Pateadores 6312 1614+2 101.67 WWLDL -0.39 +0.61 0% 11.1
12 Beach Futbol Club Black 5212 134+9 71.40 WWLDL +0.63 -0.21 15% 7.2
13 Rebels SC White 5203 1019-9 61.20 LLLWW -1.38 +0.71 0% 14.5
14 LA Breakers Red 5122 511-6 51.00 LLDWD +0.89 -0.25 0% 12.5
15 CDA Slammers FC Black 5104 1320-7 30.60 LLWLL -0.60 +0.47 0% 14.7
16 LA Breakers White 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL -0.11 +0.24 0% 16.2
17 Legends FC - Del Mar 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 +0.02 0% 16.2
18 LV Heat Surf SC 6006 263-61 00.00 LLLLL +0.50 +0.40 0% 18.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.