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Texas Spurs FC NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU16 · 24 teams · Texas Spurs (all teams)

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12th
3-3-2 record · 8 played
1.50 points per game
+6 goal diff · 21–15
DWWWLlast 5
12% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.4
-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:40 AM

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Texas Spurs FC NTX
12th · 1.50 PPG
vs
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
10th · 1.57 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.9 against · 1.42 expected points)

Season so farTexas Spurs FC NTXFC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Position12th10th
Record (W-D-L)3-3-23-2-2
Points per game1.501.57
Goals for / game2.62.0
Goals against / game1.91.1
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L W W W DW D W D L
Biggest win8–2 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Black5–1 vs Sting Brave NTX
Worst loss3–6 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX0–2 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.49+0.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.30-0.23

Common opponents: DKSC NTX — we 4–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 40%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    NTX Celtic FC NTX sit 11th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above NTX Celtic FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Texas Spurs FC NTX – FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 14 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.44 PPG		 13th▼ down 1 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3
Win
1.67 PPG		 8th▲ up 4 9th▲ up 3 12th— holds
Draw
1.44 PPG		 13th▼ down 1 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3
Loss
1.33 PPG		 13th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 2 18th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
12% top 4
88% below the top 4
8.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 5%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th <1%
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.50 (+1.00) 1st (2.32) 26 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Fever United FC NTX 2.43 (+0.93) 2nd (2.06) 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
3 Nido Dallas White NTX 2.25 (+0.75) 3rd (2.05) 22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
4 BVBIA DFW NTX 1.88 (+0.38) 5th (1.79) 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
5 Dallas Texans Red NTX 1.88 (+0.38) 9th (1.65) 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
6 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 1.86 (+0.36) 4th (1.98) 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
7 Kernow Storm FC NTX 1.75 (+0.25) 13th (1.51) 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
8 Sting NTX 1.63 (+0.13) 14th (1.41) A point next game
9 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 1.57 (+0.07) 10th (1.61) A point next game
10 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1.57 (+0.07) 7th (1.72) A point next game
11 NTX Celtic FC NTX 1.50 (+0.00) 6th (1.76) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 15 teams

Paths of results that link Texas Spurs FC NTX to FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
7 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 0–3 1–0 2–0 1–5 2–2 4–0 1–1 3–3 2–0 3–6 2–3 3–2 1–1 2–2 2–0 0–1 0–3 0–2 1–3 2–3 8–2 2–1 0–0 Texas Spurs FC NTX 12th DKSC NTX 17th Nido Dallas Blue NTX 13th FC Dallas Youth Red… 19th DKSC WHITE NTX 18th Dallas Texans Red N… 5th Kernow Storm FC NTX 7th Dallas Texans NTX 15th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 23rd Sting Brave NTX 24th SOLAR BLUE NTX 16th Fever United FC NTX 2nd FC Dallas Youth Nav… 9th Atletico Dallas You… 20th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.47 · 19th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:40 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
10th · 3-2-2 · GD +6		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 1.49 Upside
Thu Oct 29
08:15 PM		 Sting Brave NTX
24th · 1-0-8 · GD -25		 Away
Railroad Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–1 2.56 1.60 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
03:20 PM		 Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX
14th · 3-0-4 · GD -13		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 4–1 2.54 1.68 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
09:50 AM		 FC Dallas Youth White NTX
6th · 4-1-2 · GD +7		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.03 1.63 Upside
Sun Apr 11
11:40 AM		 NTX Celtic FC NTX
11th · 3-3-2 · GD +11		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.89 1.57 Upside
Sat Apr 17
08:00 AM		 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
20th · 2-1-5 · GD -9		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.07 1.61 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
09:50 AM		 SOLAR WHITE NTX
22nd · 1-0-5 · GD -13		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–1 2.56 1.67 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 8620 286+22 202.50 WDWWD -0.41 +0.37 97% 1.6
2 Fever United FC NTX 7520 189+9 172.43 WWWDW +0.10 +0.30 69% 3.8
3 Nido Dallas White NTX 8602 2910+19 182.25 WLWWL -0.47 +0.45 74% 3.5
4 BVBIA DFW NTX 8431 168+8 151.88 DWWDD +0.40 +0.14 23% 7.2
5 Dallas Texans Red NTX 8503 1510+5 151.88 WWLLL +0.23 +0.56 8% 9.4
6 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7412 147+7 131.86 WLDWW -0.24 -0.54 58% 4.7
7 Kernow Storm FC NTX 8422 119+2 141.75 DWLLW +0.30 +0.51 2% 11.4
8 Sting NTX 8413 1717+0 131.63 WLLWD -0.23 +0.42 1% 13.1
9 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 7322 124+8 111.57 WDDWL +0.08 +0.41 7% 9.7
10 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7322 148+6 111.57 LDWDW -0.23 -0.35 20% 7.7
11 NTX Celtic FC NTX 8332 198+11 121.50 DWLWW -0.49 -0.16 22% 7.1
12 Texas Spurs FC NTX 8332 2115+6 121.50 DWWWL -0.30 -0.47 12% 8.4
13 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8404 1113-2 121.50 WWLWL +0.01 -0.47 2% 11.5
14 Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX 7304 1225-13 91.29 LLWLW -0.15 -0.16 0% 18.2
15 Dallas Texans NTX 8314 1010+0 101.25 LDWLW +0.27 -1.03 4% 10.1
16 SOLAR BLUE NTX 8242 1519-4 101.25 WDDLD +0.24 +0.40 0% 16.7
17 DKSC NTX 8314 1218-6 101.25 DLWWL +0.05 -0.68 0% 14.4
18 DKSC WHITE NTX 7223 811-3 81.14 LWLDW +0.17 +0.66 0% 18.4
19 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8224 1111+0 81.00 DLLDW +0.40 +0.44 0% 16.4
20 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8215 1019-9 70.88 LWLDL -0.27 -0.05 0% 19.2
21 SOLAR RED NTX 8125 913-4 50.63 LDLDL -0.21 +0.48 0% 20.7
22 SOLAR WHITE NTX 6105 619-13 30.50 LLLLL +0.10 -0.31 0% 21.2
23 Kernow Storm FC NTX Black 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLWL +0.48 -0.50 0% 22.6
24 Sting Brave NTX 9108 833-25 30.33 LLLLL +0.36 -0.71 0% 23.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.