Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX

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Dallas Soccer Park, Field 6 ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.3 against · 2.04 expected points)

Common opponents: Atletico Dallas Youth NTX — we 0–5; they 1–5. Sting NTX — we 1–5; they 1–2. SOLAR RED NTX — we 4–1; they 1–0. Nido Dallas White NTX — we 0–2; they 0–6. FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 0–0; they 1–5. Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX — we 1–3; they 2–6.

• They struggle to score
  Sting Brave NTX average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 3 of 9.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Sting Brave NTX concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–6 at Nido Dallas White NTX.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX, 0–2 at Nido Dallas White NTX, 0–0 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 62% / draw 19% / loss 19%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  Sting Brave NTX have lost 8 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  FC Dallas Youth Red NTX sit 19th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.88.

  A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth Red NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Sting Brave NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX – Sting Brave NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 14 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 17th if every rival drops points, and as low as 21st if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th <1%
11. 11th <1%
12. 12th 1%
13. 13th 1%
14. 14th 2%
15. 15th 3%
16. 16th 6%
17. 17th 10%
18. 18th 13%
19. 19th 15%
20. 20th 19%
21. 21st 16%
22. 22nd 9%
23. 23rd 4%
24. 24th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).