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SOLAR BLUE NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU16 · 24 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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16th
2-4-2 record · 8 played
1.25 points per game
-4 goal diff · 15–19
WDDLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.7
+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:10 PM

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SOLAR BLUE NTX
16th · 1.25 PPG
vs
Dallas Texans Red NTX
5th · 1.88 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.1 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so farSOLAR BLUE NTXDallas Texans Red NTX
Position16th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-4-25-0-3
Points per game1.251.88
Goals for / game1.91.9
Goals against / game2.41.3
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)D L D D WL L L W W
Biggest win2–0 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX6–3 at Texas Spurs FC NTX
Worst loss1–7 at Nido Dallas White NTX0–2 at DKSC WHITE NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.30+0.48
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.24+0.23

Common opponents: DKSC WHITE NTX — we 3–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Dallas Texans Red NTX have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Dallas Texans NTX sit 15th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.25.

    A point moves us above Dallas Texans NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Red NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR BLUE NTX – Dallas Texans Red NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 14 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.11 PPG		 18th▼ down 2 16th— holds 20th▼ down 4
Win
1.44 PPG		 14th▲ up 2 15th▲ up 1 17th▼ down 1
Draw
1.22 PPG		 17th▼ down 1 15th▲ up 1 19th▼ down 3
Loss
1.11 PPG		 18th▼ down 2 16th— holds 20th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 15th if every rival drops points, and as low as 20th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 11%
  16. 16th 15%
  17. 17th 16%
  18. 18th 14%
  19. 19th 12%
  20. 20th 8%
  21. 21st 5%
  22. 22nd 2%
  23. 23rd <1%
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.50 (+1.25) 1st (2.32) 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Fever United FC NTX 2.43 (+1.18) 2nd (2.06) 27 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
3 Nido Dallas White NTX 2.25 (+1.00) 3rd (2.05) 24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
4 BVBIA DFW NTX 1.88 (+0.63) 5th (1.79) 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
5 Dallas Texans Red NTX 1.88 (+0.63) 9th (1.65) 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
6 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 1.86 (+0.61) 4th (1.98) 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 Kernow Storm FC NTX 1.75 (+0.50) 13th (1.51) 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
8 Sting NTX 1.63 (+0.38) 14th (1.41) 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
9 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 1.57 (+0.32) 10th (1.61) 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
10 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1.57 (+0.32) 7th (1.72) 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
11 NTX Celtic FC NTX 1.50 (+0.25) 6th (1.76) 13 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
12 Texas Spurs FC NTX 1.50 (+0.25) 8th (1.67) 13 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
13 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 1.50 (+0.25) 12th (1.52) 13 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
14 Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX 1.29 (+0.04) 18th (1.04) A point next game
15 Dallas Texans NTX 1.25 (+0.00) 11th (1.58) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR BLUE NTX to Dallas Texans Red NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
10 favour them
-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 2–0 0–1 1–0 2–1 0–2 0–0 2–2 3–2 3–3 1–4 2–1 2–0 2–3 1–1 3–6 0–1 0–2 3–0 1–7 3–2 0–2 SOLAR BLUE NTX 16th DKSC WHITE NTX 18th NTX Celtic FC NTX 11th Sting NTX 8th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 10th Nido Dallas White N… 3rd Kernow Storm FC NTX 7th Dallas Texans NTX 15th Fever United FC NTX 2nd Texas Spurs FC NTX 12th DKSC NTX 17th Dallas Texans Red N… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.40 · 9th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:10 PM		 Dallas Texans Red NTX
5th · 5-0-3 · GD +5		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.05 1.23 Upside
Thu Oct 29
06:30 PM		 BVBIA DFW NTX
4th · 4-3-1 · GD +8		 Home
Railroad Park 		●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.87 1.19 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:40 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
9th · 3-2-2 · GD +8		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–1 0.84 1.16 Upside
Sun Apr 4
03:20 PM		 SOLAR RED NTX
21st · 1-2-5 · GD -4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 1–1 1.66 1.20 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
03:20 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
19th · 2-2-4 · GD +0		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 1.02 1.19 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:40 AM		 Fever United FC NTX
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +9		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.59 1.14 Upside
Sun Apr 25
03:20 PM		 Kernow Storm FC NTX
7th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–1 0.95 1.13 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 8620 286+22 202.50 WDWWD -0.41 +0.37 98% 1.7
2 Fever United FC NTX 7520 189+9 172.43 WWWDW +0.10 +0.30 68% 3.9
3 Nido Dallas White NTX 8602 2910+19 182.25 WLWWL -0.47 +0.45 75% 3.4
4 BVBIA DFW NTX 8431 168+8 151.88 DWWDD +0.40 +0.14 22% 7.1
5 Dallas Texans Red NTX 8503 1510+5 151.88 WWLLL +0.23 +0.56 9% 9.4
6 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7412 147+7 131.86 WLDWW -0.24 -0.54 59% 4.5
7 Kernow Storm FC NTX 8422 119+2 141.75 DWLLW +0.30 +0.51 2% 11.5
8 Sting NTX 8413 1717+0 131.63 WLLWD -0.23 +0.42 1% 13.0
9 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 7322 124+8 111.57 WDDWL +0.08 +0.41 9% 9.4
10 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7322 148+6 111.57 LDWDW -0.23 -0.35 18% 7.8
11 NTX Celtic FC NTX 8332 198+11 121.50 DWLWW -0.49 -0.16 23% 7.0
12 Texas Spurs FC NTX 8332 2115+6 121.50 DWWWL -0.30 -0.47 11% 8.6
13 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8404 1113-2 121.50 WWLWL +0.01 -0.47 3% 11.4
14 Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX 7304 1225-13 91.29 LLWLW -0.15 -0.16 0% 18.2
15 Dallas Texans NTX 8314 1010+0 101.25 LDWLW +0.27 -1.03 3% 10.2
16 SOLAR BLUE NTX 8242 1519-4 101.25 WDDLD +0.24 +0.40 0% 16.7
17 DKSC NTX 8314 1218-6 101.25 DLWWL +0.05 -0.68 0% 14.5
18 DKSC WHITE NTX 7223 811-3 81.14 LWLDW +0.17 +0.66 0% 18.3
19 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8224 1111+0 81.00 DLLDW +0.40 +0.44 0% 16.4
20 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8215 1019-9 70.88 LWLDL -0.27 -0.05 0% 19.1
21 SOLAR RED NTX 8125 913-4 50.63 LDLDL -0.21 +0.48 0% 20.8
22 SOLAR WHITE NTX 6105 619-13 30.50 LLLLL +0.10 -0.31 0% 21.1
23 Kernow Storm FC NTX Black 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLWL +0.48 -0.50 0% 22.6
24 Sting Brave NTX 9108 833-25 30.33 LLLLL +0.36 -0.71 0% 23.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.