SOLAR WHITE NTX
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU16 · 24 teams · Solar SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:20 PM
Dallas Soccer Park, Field 14 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.3 against · 0.69 expected points)
| Season so far | SOLAR WHITE NTX | Nido Dallas Blue NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 22nd | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-5 | 4-0-4 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | L W L W W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs SOLAR BLUE NTX | 2–0 vs Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at DKSC NTX | 1–5 vs Nido Dallas White NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.37 | -0.15 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.10 | +0.01 |
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at BVBIA DFW NTX, 0–2 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 17%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:20 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
SOLAR RED NTX sit 21st on 0.63 PPG; we are on 0.50.A point moves us above SOLAR RED NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nido Dallas Blue NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR WHITE NTX – Nido Dallas Blue NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 13 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.43 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 24th▼ down 2 |
| Win 0.86 PPG |
21st▲ up 1 | 21st▲ up 1 | 22nd— holds |
| Draw 0.57 PPG |
22nd— holds | 21st▲ up 1 | 24th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.43 PPG |
22nd— holds | 22nd— holds | 24th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 22nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 24th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th <1%
- 14th <1%
- 15th 1%
- 16th 1%
- 17th 3%
- 18th 4%
- 19th 9%
- 20th 12%
- 21st 20%
- 22nd 21%
- 23rd 18%
- 24th 9%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 2.50 (+2.00) | 1st (2.32) | 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Fever United FC NTX | 2.43 (+1.93) | 2nd (2.06) | 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 2.25 (+1.75) | 3rd (2.05) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | BVBIA DFW NTX | 1.88 (+1.38) | 5th (1.79) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 5 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 1.88 (+1.38) | 9th (1.65) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 1.86 (+1.36) | 4th (1.98) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 7 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 1.75 (+1.25) | 13th (1.51) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 8 | Sting NTX | 1.63 (+1.13) | 14th (1.41) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 9 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 1.57 (+1.07) | 10th (1.61) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 10 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 1.57 (+1.07) | 7th (1.72) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 11 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 1.50 (+1.00) | 6th (1.76) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 12 | Texas Spurs FC NTX | 1.50 (+1.00) | 8th (1.67) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 13 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 1.50 (+1.00) | 12th (1.52) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 14 | Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX | 1.29 (+0.79) | 18th (1.04) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 15 | Dallas Texans NTX | 1.25 (+0.75) | 11th (1.58) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 16 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 1.25 (+0.75) | 16th (1.13) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 17 | DKSC NTX | 1.25 (+0.75) | 15th (1.31) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 18 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 1.14 (+0.64) | 19th (0.99) | 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 19 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 1.00 (+0.50) | 17th (1.13) | 12 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 20 | Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 0.88 (+0.38) | 20th (0.93) | 11 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 21 | SOLAR RED NTX | 0.63 (+0.13) | 21st (0.75) | A point next game |
How the results connect
19 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link SOLAR WHITE NTX to Nido Dallas Blue NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.31 · 16th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:20 PM |
Nido Dallas Blue NTX 13th · 4-0-4 · GD -2 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 07:00 PM |
Dallas Texans NTX 15th · 3-1-4 · GD +0 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Thu Oct 29 06:30 PM |
Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX 14th · 3-0-4 · GD -13 |
Home Railroad Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.40 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 08:00 AM |
Kernow Storm FC NTX Black 23rd · 1-0-6 · GD -24 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 0.77 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 08:00 AM |
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 10th · 3-2-2 · GD +6 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.54 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 09:50 AM |
Sting Brave NTX 24th · 1-0-8 · GD -25 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.85 | 0.84 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 11:40 AM |
FC Dallas Youth White NTX 6th · 4-1-2 · GD +7 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.32 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 08:00 AM |
NTX Celtic FC NTX 11th · 3-3-2 · GD +11 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.25 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 09:50 AM |
Texas Spurs FC NTX 12th · 3-3-2 · GD +6 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.34 | 0.74 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 20 | 2.50 | WDWWD | -0.41 | +0.37 | 98% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Thu Oct 29 at Fever United FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Fever United FC NTX | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 | 2.43 | WWWDW | +0.10 | +0.30 | 68% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Nido Dallas White NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 18 | 2.25 | WLWWL | -0.47 | +0.45 | 75% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting NTX · Thu Oct 29 at Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Fever United FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | BVBIA DFW NTX | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 | 1.88 | DWWDD | +0.40 | +0.14 | 22% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Thu Oct 29 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLLL | +0.23 | +0.56 | 9% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs Nido Dallas White NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Sting NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 | 1.86 | WLDWW | -0.24 | -0.54 | 59% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 24 at Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 | 1.75 | DWLLW | +0.30 | +0.51 | 2% | 11.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Thu Oct 29 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs BVBIA DFW NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sting NTX | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | +0 | 13 | 1.63 | WLLWD | -0.23 | +0.42 | 1% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas White NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 11 | 1.57 | WDDWL | +0.08 | +0.41 | 9% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC WHITE NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Thu Oct 29 at Sting NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 11 | 1.57 | LDWDW | -0.23 | -0.35 | 18% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Texas Spurs FC NTX · Thu Oct 29 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Black See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 12 | 1.50 | DWLWW | -0.49 | -0.16 | 23% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Texas Spurs FC NTX | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 12 | 1.50 | DWWWL | -0.30 | -0.47 | 11% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Thu Oct 29 at Sting Brave NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 | 1.50 | WWLWL | +0.01 | -0.47 | 3% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Black · Thu Oct 29 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWLW | -0.15 | -0.16 | 0% | 18.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC NTX · Thu Oct 29 at SOLAR WHITE NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Dallas Texans NTX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 10 | 1.25 | LDWLW | +0.27 | -1.03 | 3% | 10.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Kernow Storm FC NTX Black See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 | 1.25 | WDDLD | +0.24 | +0.40 | 0% | 16.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs BVBIA DFW NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | DKSC NTX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 | 1.25 | DLWWL | +0.05 | -0.68 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX · Thu Oct 29 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Brave NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | 1.14 | LWLDW | +0.17 | +0.66 | 0% | 18.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sun Oct 25 at BVBIA DFW NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 8 | 1.00 | DLLDW | +0.40 | +0.44 | 0% | 16.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC WHITE NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 | 0.88 | LWLDL | -0.27 | -0.05 | 0% | 19.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Brave NTX · Thu Oct 29 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | SOLAR RED NTX | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 5 | 0.63 | LDLDL | -0.21 | +0.48 | 0% | 20.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs DKSC WHITE NTX See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.10 | -0.31 | 0% | 21.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Kernow Storm FC NTX Black | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLWL | +0.48 | -0.50 | 0% | 22.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR WHITE NTX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Sting Brave NTX | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 33 | -25 | 3 | 0.33 | LLLLL | +0.36 | -0.71 | 0% | 23.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Thu Oct 29 vs Texas Spurs FC NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs DKSC NTX See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.