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FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU16 · 24 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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9th
3-2-2 record · 7 played
1.57 points per game
+8 goal diff · 12–4
WDDWLlast 5
7% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.7
+0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 07:00 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
9th · 1.57 PPG
at
DKSC WHITE NTX
18th · 1.14 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 6 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.5 for, 0.8 against · 1.85 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Navy NTXDKSC WHITE NTX
Position9th18th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-22-2-3
Points per game1.571.14
Goals for / game1.71.1
Goals against / game0.61.6
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless33
Form (recent first)L W D D WW D L W L
Biggest win6–0 vs Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX2–0 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX
Worst loss0–2 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX0–4 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.74-0.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.08+0.17

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX, 0–0 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX, 0–1 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 53% / draw 27% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 07:00 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Sting NTX sit 8th on 1.63 PPG; we are on 1.57.

    A point moves us above Sting NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC WHITE NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX – DKSC WHITE NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 13 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.75 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Win
1.75 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Draw
1.50 PPG		 11th▼ down 2 9th— holds 14th▼ down 5
Loss
1.38 PPG		 13th▼ down 4 14th▼ down 5 18th▼ down 9

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
7% top 4
93% below the top 4
9.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 7%
  14. 14th 7%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th 2%
  18. 18th 1%
  19. 19th <1%
  20. 20th <1%
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.50 (+0.93) 1st (2.32) 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2 Fever United FC NTX 2.43 (+0.86) 2nd (2.06) 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
3 Nido Dallas White NTX 2.25 (+0.68) 3rd (2.05) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4 BVBIA DFW NTX 1.88 (+0.31) 5th (1.79) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
5 Dallas Texans Red NTX 1.88 (+0.31) 9th (1.65) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
6 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 1.86 (+0.29) 4th (1.98) 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 Kernow Storm FC NTX 1.75 (+0.18) 13th (1.51) Win next game
8 Sting NTX 1.63 (+0.06) 14th (1.41) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX to DKSC WHITE NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 even
4 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–1 0–2 0–0 0–0 3–3 0–1 2–2 0–1 1–2 2–0 1–6 1–0 0–2 3–0 2–2 1–1 0–2 3–1 6–0 1–3 0–2 1–2 4–0 FC Dallas Youth Nav… 9th FC Dallas Youth Red… 19th NTX Celtic FC NTX 11th Atletico Dallas You… 1st SOLAR WHITE NTX 22nd FC Dallas Youth Blu… 10th Fort Worth Vaqueros… 14th Dallas Texans Red N… 5th SOLAR BLUE NTX 16th Dallas Texans NTX 15th DKSC NTX 17th Texas Spurs FC NTX 12th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 6th DKSC WHITE NTX 18th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.41 · 8th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
07:00 PM		 DKSC WHITE NTX
18th · 2-2-3 · GD -3		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–0 1.85 1.61 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
07:00 PM		 Kernow Storm FC NTX
7th · 4-2-2 · GD +2		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 1–0 1.56 1.60 Upside
Thu Oct 29
08:15 PM		 Sting NTX
8th · 4-1-3 · GD +0		 Away
Railroad Park 		●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 1–1 1.84 1.62 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:40 AM		 SOLAR BLUE NTX
16th · 2-4-2 · GD -4		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–1 1.94 1.65 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
03:20 PM		 Dallas Texans Red NTX
5th · 5-0-3 · GD +5		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.49 1.64 Upside
Sun Apr 11
07:00 PM		 Nido Dallas White NTX
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +19		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.39 1.62 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:40 AM		 BVBIA DFW NTX
4th · 4-3-1 · GD +8		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–0 1.52 1.61 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:30 PM		 Fever United FC NTX
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +9		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.55 1.61 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 8620 286+22 202.50 WDWWD -0.41 +0.37 97% 1.6
2 Fever United FC NTX 7520 189+9 172.43 WWWDW +0.10 +0.30 69% 3.8
3 Nido Dallas White NTX 8602 2910+19 182.25 WLWWL -0.47 +0.45 74% 3.5
4 BVBIA DFW NTX 8431 168+8 151.88 DWWDD +0.40 +0.14 23% 7.2
5 Dallas Texans Red NTX 8503 1510+5 151.88 WWLLL +0.23 +0.56 8% 9.4
6 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 7412 147+7 131.86 WLDWW -0.24 -0.54 58% 4.7
7 Kernow Storm FC NTX 8422 119+2 141.75 DWLLW +0.30 +0.51 2% 11.4
8 Sting NTX 8413 1717+0 131.63 WLLWD -0.23 +0.42 1% 13.1
9 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 7322 124+8 111.57 WDDWL +0.08 +0.41 7% 9.7
10 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 7322 148+6 111.57 LDWDW -0.23 -0.35 20% 7.7
11 NTX Celtic FC NTX 8332 198+11 121.50 DWLWW -0.49 -0.16 22% 7.1
12 Texas Spurs FC NTX 8332 2115+6 121.50 DWWWL -0.30 -0.47 12% 8.4
13 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 8404 1113-2 121.50 WWLWL +0.01 -0.47 2% 11.5
14 Fort Worth Vaqueros FC NTX 7304 1225-13 91.29 LLWLW -0.15 -0.16 0% 18.2
15 Dallas Texans NTX 8314 1010+0 101.25 LDWLW +0.27 -1.03 4% 10.1
16 SOLAR BLUE NTX 8242 1519-4 101.25 WDDLD +0.24 +0.40 0% 16.7
17 DKSC NTX 8314 1218-6 101.25 DLWWL +0.05 -0.68 0% 14.4
18 DKSC WHITE NTX 7223 811-3 81.14 LWLDW +0.17 +0.66 0% 18.4
19 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8224 1111+0 81.00 DLLDW +0.40 +0.44 0% 16.4
20 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 8215 1019-9 70.88 LWLDL -0.27 -0.05 0% 19.2
21 SOLAR RED NTX 8125 913-4 50.63 LDLDL -0.21 +0.48 0% 20.7
22 SOLAR WHITE NTX 6105 619-13 30.50 LLLLL +0.10 -0.31 0% 21.2
23 Kernow Storm FC NTX Black 7106 731-24 30.43 LLLWL +0.48 -0.50 0% 22.6
24 Sting Brave NTX 9108 833-25 30.33 LLLLL +0.36 -0.71 0% 23.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.